Nov 14, 2019, 11:02 pm
UA Ending LAX-SIN, going 2x daily SFO-SIN, 27 OCT 2018
Oct 12, 2018, 9:11 am
#271
Join Date: Aug 2015
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Oct 12, 2018, 10:21 am
#272
Join Date: Jan 2018
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While I hope 2x/day works, I tend to agree with you. The second flight will be quickly be shifted to SFO-India. AI is dong well out of SFO and it'll be much easier for UA to succeed against them. I do hope I'm wrong, but let's see!
Oct 12, 2018, 11:02 am
#273
Join Date: Feb 2008
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What would likely print money would be SFO-BLR, but its 8701 miles. UA is currently running SFO-SIN which is 8446 miles with a block time of 16.5 hrs. That is really pushing the range, and the plane goes out weight restricted westbound much of the time.
My understanding is that you can't fly direct from the Western US to India, much of the airspace (in Russia and China) is restricted, and I believe that is why the block time for a 7707 mile flight is only half an hour less than SFO-SIN which is 750 miles further. My calcuation is that you would need 17.5-18 hours of flying time to go SFO-BLR and probably 17-17.5 hours to go SFO-BOM (the other natural place to fly to). The B789 simply does not have the range to do this with any load.
These flights will have a LOT of demand, but they would need either a A350ulr to be run (a B772LR can do it, but the fuel costs would be very high) or they would need to be run from SEA or YVR.
Oct 12, 2018, 11:08 am
#274
Join Date: Jul 2005
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SQ direct to EWR/LAX will definitely attract the premium flyers who are willing to pay more for a direct flight, but I think UA strategy by offering 2x daily is to tap into the broader US 1-stop markets. I'm a bit skeptical as to why SIN-EWR/LAX will suddenly suck up all the UA premium traffic to SIN. As noted above, a premium NYC flyer who wants better service could already pick JFK-FRA-SIN instead of EWR-SFO-SIN.
If comparing seat capacity between UA and SQ back in 2013 and now, the net weekly seat capacity increase is around 430 one-way seats. UA is pretty much unchanged going from NRT/HKG-SIN to 2x daily SFO-SIN. SQ has made some big capacity cuts over the years: SIN-ICN-SFO (moved to LAX) will be discontinued, SIN-NRT-LAX went from A380 to 77W, SIN-DME/MAN-IAH went from 77W to A350. That's around 3,300 weekly one-way seats reduction. In return, SQ adds SIN-EWR/LAX (A345 to A359ULR) and adds SIN-SFO 10x weekly A350/A359ULR, around 3,800 weekly one-way seat addition.
If anything, it's Chinese carriers like MF/HU who are dumping capacity and depressing the yields on the US-SIN market. But of course, if yields continue to be depressed and fuel prices keep going up, then the UA789 might be better utilized to serve India or MEL/BNE or go year-round ZRH.
If comparing seat capacity between UA and SQ back in 2013 and now, the net weekly seat capacity increase is around 430 one-way seats. UA is pretty much unchanged going from NRT/HKG-SIN to 2x daily SFO-SIN. SQ has made some big capacity cuts over the years: SIN-ICN-SFO (moved to LAX) will be discontinued, SIN-NRT-LAX went from A380 to 77W, SIN-DME/MAN-IAH went from 77W to A350. That's around 3,300 weekly one-way seats reduction. In return, SQ adds SIN-EWR/LAX (A345 to A359ULR) and adds SIN-SFO 10x weekly A350/A359ULR, around 3,800 weekly one-way seat addition.
If anything, it's Chinese carriers like MF/HU who are dumping capacity and depressing the yields on the US-SIN market. But of course, if yields continue to be depressed and fuel prices keep going up, then the UA789 might be better utilized to serve India or MEL/BNE or go year-round ZRH.
Oct 12, 2018, 12:12 pm
#275
Join Date: Sep 2007
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If it never depended on traffic like EWR-SFO-SIN then it is a false question.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Oct 12, 2018 at 5:53 pm Reason: repaired quote
Oct 12, 2018, 12:16 pm
#276
Join Date: Jan 2005
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While I agree that 2x/day SIN is not likely to make it, UA has issues with adding India flights. AI is flying SFO-DEL which is 7707 mi, with a block time of 16 hours (on a B772LR, which has the range and can take a full load, no seat restrictions). AI has connecting flights that allow the traffic to then go on to places like BOM and BLR which have a lot of bay area demand. I seriously doubt that there is enough traffic ex-SFO for just DEL.
What would likely print money would be SFO-BLR, but its 8701 miles. UA is currently running SFO-SIN which is 8446 miles with a block time of 16.5 hrs. That is really pushing the range, and the plane goes out weight restricted westbound much of the time.
My understanding is that you can't fly direct from the Western US to India, much of the airspace (in Russia and China) is restricted, and I believe that is why the block time for a 7707 mile flight is only half an hour less than SFO-SIN which is 750 miles further. My calcuation is that you would need 17.5-18 hours of flying time to go SFO-BLR and probably 17-17.5 hours to go SFO-BOM (the other natural place to fly to). The B789 simply does not have the range to do this with any load.
These flights will have a LOT of demand, but they would need either a A350ulr to be run (a B772LR can do it, but the fuel costs would be very high) or they would need to be run from SEA or YVR.
What would likely print money would be SFO-BLR, but its 8701 miles. UA is currently running SFO-SIN which is 8446 miles with a block time of 16.5 hrs. That is really pushing the range, and the plane goes out weight restricted westbound much of the time.
My understanding is that you can't fly direct from the Western US to India, much of the airspace (in Russia and China) is restricted, and I believe that is why the block time for a 7707 mile flight is only half an hour less than SFO-SIN which is 750 miles further. My calcuation is that you would need 17.5-18 hours of flying time to go SFO-BLR and probably 17-17.5 hours to go SFO-BOM (the other natural place to fly to). The B789 simply does not have the range to do this with any load.
These flights will have a LOT of demand, but they would need either a A350ulr to be run (a B772LR can do it, but the fuel costs would be very high) or they would need to be run from SEA or YVR.
SFO-BLR, though, is a non-starter. Too long for a 789 with operational challenges (Himalayas, single-engine driftdown, etc.)
Oct 12, 2018, 1:46 pm
#277
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
Posts: 6,526
SQ direct to EWR/LAX will definitely attract the premium flyers who are willing to pay more for a direct flight, but I think UA strategy by offering 2x daily is to tap into the broader US 1-stop markets. I'm a bit skeptical as to why SIN-EWR/LAX will suddenly suck up all the UA premium traffic to SIN. As noted above, a premium NYC flyer who wants better service could already pick JFK-FRA-SIN instead of EWR-SFO-SIN.
If comparing seat capacity between UA and SQ back in 2013 and now, the net weekly seat capacity increase is around 430 one-way seats. UA is pretty much unchanged going from NRT/HKG-SIN to 2x daily SFO-SIN. SQ has made some big capacity cuts over the years: SIN-ICN-SFO (moved to LAX) will be discontinued, SIN-NRT-LAX went from A380 to 77W, SIN-DME/MAN-IAH went from 77W to A350. That's around 3,300 weekly one-way seats reduction. In return, SQ adds SIN-EWR/LAX (A345 to A359ULR) and adds SIN-SFO 10x weekly A350/A359ULR, around 3,800 weekly one-way seat addition.
If anything, it's Chinese carriers like MF/HU who are dumping capacity and depressing the yields on the US-SIN market. But of course, if yields continue to be depressed and fuel prices keep going up, then the UA789 might be better utilized to serve India or MEL/BNE or go year-round ZRH.
If comparing seat capacity between UA and SQ back in 2013 and now, the net weekly seat capacity increase is around 430 one-way seats. UA is pretty much unchanged going from NRT/HKG-SIN to 2x daily SFO-SIN. SQ has made some big capacity cuts over the years: SIN-ICN-SFO (moved to LAX) will be discontinued, SIN-NRT-LAX went from A380 to 77W, SIN-DME/MAN-IAH went from 77W to A350. That's around 3,300 weekly one-way seats reduction. In return, SQ adds SIN-EWR/LAX (A345 to A359ULR) and adds SIN-SFO 10x weekly A350/A359ULR, around 3,800 weekly one-way seat addition.
If anything, it's Chinese carriers like MF/HU who are dumping capacity and depressing the yields on the US-SIN market. But of course, if yields continue to be depressed and fuel prices keep going up, then the UA789 might be better utilized to serve India or MEL/BNE or go year-round ZRH.
But SQ's increase in capacity (as you note) is not insignificant (430 seats) but given that some of the flights they pulled down would compete for direct flights to the gateways (e.g. ICN, NRT) the actual increase to SIN is even greater.
If one intends to argue that UA loses business due to its inferior product vis-a-vis SQ, the script is flipped when UA goes against AI. AI offers a pretty awful longhaul premium product, with reliability to match. UA has coexisted quite well in the markets it competes with AI and if SFO-India were to start, I am confident UA would be a more attractive option for most than Air India. SFO-DEL is within the realm of possibility, but would siphon a lot of A++ traffic from SFO-FRA/MUC/ZRH.
SFO-BLR, though, is a non-starter. Too long for a 789 with operational challenges (Himalayas, single-engine driftdown, etc.)
SFO-BLR, though, is a non-starter. Too long for a 789 with operational challenges (Himalayas, single-engine driftdown, etc.)
Glad to have your thoughts re SFO-BLR, I had always thought that was impossible with the B789, but was not sure if I was missing something. It (or SFO-BOM) is the flight that I am sure UA would love to be able to run ex-SFO, they just don't have the A/C.
It would be interesting to see if DL would try it ex-SEA (approx 700 miles closer) but I would guess that the A359, the plane they would want to use, is larger than they would like for that type of a flight.
Oct 12, 2018, 2:40 pm
#278
Join Date: Jul 2005
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Maybe if DL does SEA-SIN, UA will pull down to 1x daily SFO-SIN. But DL couldn't even make SEA-HKG work, so who knows what's DL appetite with ex-SEA ULH routes.
Oct 12, 2018, 4:19 pm
#279
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
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I think it was very hard to get enough high value traffic on the SEA-HKG flight. The local market is small (compaired to the Bay Area or LA), lots of flights ex-YVR, and the places one might get connections from nearly all have direct flights, so DL was having to run the flight for highly competitive low margin connection business. Delta also does not have an efficient A/C for a flight of that range (or did not until they got the A359).
Why I think BLR might work is that it would have a time/distance advantage over other routes from the West Coast, so an advantage in getting traffic from other cities.
Oct 13, 2018, 4:05 am
#280
Join Date: May 2008
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If one intends to argue that UA loses business due to its inferior product vis-a-vis SQ, the script is flipped when UA goes against AI. AI offers a pretty awful longhaul premium product, with reliability to match. UA has coexisted quite well in the markets it competes with AI and if SFO-India were to start, I am confident UA would be a more attractive option for most than Air India. SFO-DEL is within the realm of possibility, but would siphon a lot of A++ traffic from SFO-FRA/MUC/ZRH.
SFO-BLR, though, is a non-starter. Too long for a 789 with operational challenges (Himalayas, single-engine driftdown, etc.)
SFO-BLR, though, is a non-starter. Too long for a 789 with operational challenges (Himalayas, single-engine driftdown, etc.)
AI is beyond help.
Oct 13, 2018, 7:52 am
#282
Join Date: Mar 2015
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Oct 13, 2018, 7:22 pm
#283
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Oct 13, 2018, 10:16 pm
#284
Join Date: Jan 2017
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Let’s see how it goes. Even if they do retrench to 1x daily that’s a lot better than when you had no option but to go via NRT or HKG (and you still have the option via NRT under the NH JV).
I’m on UA29 mid-November (en route to BKK) as the P fare from PDX is fairly good (and $4k cheaper than PDX-SFO-NRT-BKK). And the 8.15pm arrival time is much more convenient than connecting via either NRT or HKG. I’m taking UA2 for the return so as to get home early afternoon rather than 12.40am (on UA28). So very convenient options from both flights.
And remember that the SIN flights are covered by the NH JV. So if the second daily non stop allows UA to put more pax on SFO-NRT to feed other (NH operated) flights under the JV - say SGN, HAN, KUL, CGK - then UA gets more revenue share from those. Whether it’s enough, we’ll just have to wait and see.
I’m on UA29 mid-November (en route to BKK) as the P fare from PDX is fairly good (and $4k cheaper than PDX-SFO-NRT-BKK). And the 8.15pm arrival time is much more convenient than connecting via either NRT or HKG. I’m taking UA2 for the return so as to get home early afternoon rather than 12.40am (on UA28). So very convenient options from both flights.
And remember that the SIN flights are covered by the NH JV. So if the second daily non stop allows UA to put more pax on SFO-NRT to feed other (NH operated) flights under the JV - say SGN, HAN, KUL, CGK - then UA gets more revenue share from those. Whether it’s enough, we’ll just have to wait and see.
Oct 13, 2018, 10:33 pm
#285
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