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Old May 29, 2018, 10:42 am
  #31  
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Originally Posted by jsloan
Pardon me if I'm not outraged.
I don't see "outrage" I see a reasoned discussion of a change that affects elite upgrade odds.

And it definitely impacts upgrade odds negatively. As a 1K, if I have to go to the gate on SFO routes, the odds of clearing are minimal (even on a high fare class). My best chance of a CPU is through a pre-check in sweep.

Originally Posted by jsloan
This is much ado about nothing.
Sorry, that's wrong on both points. It's not "much ado"; it's a measured discussion of a change in how UA handles CPUs. Nor is it "nothing"; I missed an upgrade two weeks ago on SFO-SNA that I would have gotten if they'd run a sweep at T-96. No, it's not a tragedy (though I don't much enjoy Y on the slimlined Airbuses) but it's definitely worthy of FT discussion.
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Old May 29, 2018, 10:50 am
  #32  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan
Look, UA can try to sell upgrades at check-in all it wants. If there's demand, they'll do so -- but, as you point out, the new upgrade fee structure makes it possible to get TOD-type offers from booking 'til boarding. Shutting down the CPU window might extend people's ability to take advantage of these offers a bit, but they're not selling 20 TODs during the check-in process, no matter how much they'd like to. So far, the anecdotes in this thread have boiled down to "I eventually got upgraded, but they made me wait until the gate." Pardon me if I'm not outraged.


They are delivering on the product! They're not sending the front cabin out empty. They're providing complimentary upgrades for economy passengers into domestic first class, on a space-available basis, which is exactly what they're promising. They may be waiting to do so, but it's disingenuous to suggest that they're somehow not upgrading passengers.

As a paid first class customer, you should be jumping up and down in support of these changes, because the biggest winner here is the paid passenger who gets hit with IRROPS. There's an entire thread lamenting UA's inability to hold some front-cabin space for passengers who misconnect; a weather delay on one flight turns into a choice between a downgrade and a two-day wait on the next flight. If UA holds these seats to the gate, suddenly IRROPS are much less disruptive.



No need to be sorry , but how do you figure? Unless the cabin is completely filled with TODs -- which, I continue to maintain, isn't going to happen any more now than it was before -- this is great for GS passengers, because they don't have to worry about sitting in Y while a Plat or 1K sits in F on an upgrade that cleared before the GS bought their ticket / changed onto the flight in question.

People are jumping to the conclusion that UA will suddenly be able to sell these TOD offers that they weren't selling before. I just don't buy it -- people have already turned down upgrade offers that are generally materially similar to the TOD offers during the purchase process and, for those of us who monitor our reservations on United.com, every time they've looked at the reservation since then.

If the front cabin is empty, UA isn't going to be able to fill it with TODs. And if the front cabin is mostly full, they're not going to open R space, so the CPU process never would have run in the first place. This is much ado about nothing.
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Old May 29, 2018, 11:00 am
  #33  
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There are multiple forces in play in this discussion
-- CPU clearance being delayed
-- Cash upgrades
-- Space for last-minute seat sales or recovery space for irrops

The first and third are competing FT points of view.

It highly likely the delayed CPU is being done to save space for the last minute full price sales or for cash upgrades.
Does this lead to fewer CPUs, most likely. The question is, on the aggregate, how significant is this?

However other issues also affect the CPU availability.
-- Increased travel
-- Rightsizing capacity
-- Domestic premium cabin pricing has become more aggressive / more "reasonable"

But sum of all of these, there is less CPU and it is later in the process -- but doubt it is due to just one factor (outside of the delay)
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Old May 29, 2018, 11:07 am
  #34  
 
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
There are multiple forces in play in this discussion
-- CPU clearance being delayed
-- Cash upgrades
-- Space for last-minute seat sales or recovery space for irrops

The first and third are competing FT points of view.

It highly likely the delayed CPU is being done to save space for the last minute full price sales or for cash upgrades.
Does this lead to fewer CPUs, most likely. The question is, on the aggregate, how significant is this?

However other issues also affect the CPU availability.
-- Increased travel
-- Rightsizing capacity
-- Domestic premium cabin pricing has become more aggressive / more "reasonable"

But sum of all of these, there is less CPU and it is later in the process -- but doubt it is due to just one factor (outside of the delay)
This. I’d add in there the implicit roll of a company to be upfront with it’s customers. Perhaps that doesn’t matter anymore. If that’s true, that’s a shame.
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Old May 29, 2018, 11:10 am
  #35  
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
-- Space for last-minute seat sales or recovery space for irrops
From what I've seen this year, when they do sweep, UA will typically only sweep down to F2. I suspect most would agree that's sensible (some would probably argue the number should be higher, e.g., F3 or F4).
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Old May 29, 2018, 11:12 am
  #36  
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Originally Posted by flyerbaby19
Other than marketing drivel, there's no real reason to run CPU's 5 days in advance. Just do it all except 2 at T-1 or and then the last 2 at the gate itself.
Unless the purpose of the program is specifically to reward people for flying as booked (in which case, why offer such a generous SDC system?) or to upgrade lower-status, firm-plans travelers over higher-status, last-minute travelers, I agree.

Originally Posted by Kacee
I don't see "outrage" I see a reasoned discussion of a change that affects elite upgrade odds.
I don't see a lot of reason in this thread. I see a lot of hyperbolic reaction to a possible -- unconfirmed, anecdotal -- change.

Originally Posted by Kacee
And it definitely impacts upgrade odds negatively. As a 1K, if I have to go to the gate on SFO routes, the odds of clearing are minimal (even on a high fare class). My best chance of a CPU is through a pre-check in sweep.
You're confusing correlation and causation here. If they didn't ever clear any CPUs until the gate, why would your CPU clearance rate go from good to minimal? You'd still be in the same position on the list vis à vis other upgrades, with the exception of any last-minute purchases or SDCs (an opportunity of which you could also avail), or paid F passengers on IRROPS who would otherwise be sitting in Y. You're assuming, apropos of nothing, that TOD uptake rates are going to skyrocket because of this additional inventory -- but if UA believed they could sell that inventory as TODs, they'd already be doing it anyway.

Originally Posted by Kacee
I missed an upgrade two weeks ago on SFO-SNA that I would have gotten if they'd run a sweep at T-96.
So, at T-96, there was R > 2? Or there were empty seats in the cabin? If the former, that suggests a pretty bad forecast by UA -- but, again, there's no way to know that you would have been cleared even so; there might have been several people ahead of you on the list.

If you want to argue that UA should CPU, in advance, to F-2 instead of R-2, well, that's fine, but that hasn't been the policy as far back as pmCO. In fact, nearly 20 years ago, I remember threads about people seeing flights go to F9 A0 on the 6th day before the flight (at the time, the CPU inventory was widely believed to be equal to A, and Platinum CPUs cleared five days before departure). I'd put the odds of that happening at somewhat less than UA re-instituting LHR-DEL or whatever flight 1 used to be...

Originally Posted by boat9781
This. I’d add in there the implicit role of a company to be upfront with its customers. Perhaps that doesn’t matter anymore. If that’s true, that’s a shame.
...?

Check out the "longest upgrade list" thread. On some routes, it's half the plane. If you expect UA's marketing staff to say, "As a valued 1K member, enjoy finishing #30 on the upgrade list for a 20-seat cabin where we managed to sell every F seat and upgraded nobody," I'm not sure what to tell you. The change you're complaining about may or may not exist, but the standards you appear to be using for comparison are unlikely to be met by any company.

UA is providing complimentary upgrades "as early as" the original upgrade window. They have not promised any more than that.
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Old May 29, 2018, 11:14 am
  #37  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee
From what I've seen this year, when they do sweep, UA will typically only sweep down to F2. I suspect most would agree that's sensible (some would probably argue the number should be higher, e.g., F3 or F4).
As discussed it was R2. That may have changed. I still like a system that dynamically clears when inventory becomes available, but I understand the business decision made to not have that functionality. I just feel as though the nuclear option of switching off the CPU system entirely (and let’s be clear, we don’t know for sure if that’s what’s happening) warrants a level of discussion that’s commensurate with the change.
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Old May 29, 2018, 11:28 am
  #38  
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Originally Posted by jsloan
You're confusing correlation and causation here. If they didn't ever clear any CPUs until the gate, why would your CPU clearance rate go from good to minimal?
This is so obvious, it's perplexing that you keep missing the point. From T-24 on, passengers buy the upgrade, especially when they see their CPU isn't going to clear. I've done it myself. More than once. So . . . if UA holds off on running a sweep at T-96, instead of CPU'ing a 1K, UA sells the seat for $99 (or whatever) at check-in or shortly thereafter, and 1K dies on the waitlist.

Originally Posted by jsloan
a possible -- unconfirmed, anecdotal -- change
I've been a student of the CPU process for quite a while. The change discussed in this thread is real.

Originally Posted by jsloan
there's no way to know that you would have been cleared even so; there might have been several people ahead of you on the list.
I was watching the list carefully. If UA had swept at T-96, I would have cleared. Instead, died at #1 after several seats disappeared from inventory inside T-24. Again, not a tragedy, but I definitely noticed.

Originally Posted by jsloan
Unless the purpose of the program is specifically to reward people for flying as booked (in which case, why offer such a generous SDC system?) or to upgrade lower-status, firm-plans travelers over higher-status, last-minute travelers, I agree.
There's a straw man. I've missed recently as 1K on a U and an M, both purchased within 7 days of travel. The fact is this change mostly impacts high status, high fare travelers (at least on SFO routes) because lower status and lower fare travelers don't have snowball's chance to begin with.
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Old May 29, 2018, 11:55 am
  #39  
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Originally Posted by Kacee
This is so obvious, it's perplexing that you keep missing the point. From T-24 on, passengers buy the upgrade, especially when they see their CPU isn't going to clear. I've done it myself. More than once. So . . . if UA holds off on running a sweep at T-96, instead of CPU'ing a 1K, UA sells the seat for $99 (or whatever) at check-in or shortly thereafter, and 1K dies on the waitlist.
In that case, I tip my hat to UA's marketing and revenue management team for finding a way to price their product better. I have never been tempted by a buy-up into domestic first. They're priced at least twice what I'd pay. If you're willing to pay the TOD, why should UA give it to you for free?

Originally Posted by Kacee
I've been a student of the CPU process for quite a while. The change discussed in this thread is real.
I believe the anecdotes, but I don't know how widespread it is. I've seen some flights CPU aggressively and others hold off.

Originally Posted by Kacee
I was watching the list carefully. If UA had swept at T-96, I would have cleared. Instead, died at #1 after several seats disappeared from inventory inside T-24. Again, not a tragedy, but I definitely noticed.
There could have been 5 GSes who SDC'ed away from your flight. I'll grant that it's likely you would have cleared -- but, again, was R > 2 (in which case, we would have expected the sweep to run)? Or was R <= 2, in which case this was SOP, UA refusing to open R space.

Originally Posted by Kacee
There's a straw man. I've missed recently as 1K on a U and an M, both purchased within 7 days of travel. The fact is this change mostly impacts high status, high fare travelers (at least on SFO routes) because lower status and lower fare travelers don't have snowball's chance to begin with.
Here is where being SFO based (and possibly traveling a commuter schedule?) is coloring your perspective. UA is a vastly different airline for passengers who live in its hub cities than it is for those of us who don't. I buy a U or higher coach fare maybe once every two years, and I have much, much better CPU clearance rates than you're describing. I also don't see the same willingness to buy TODs amongst my fellow passengers as you do.

Moral of the story: Don't live in San Francisco.
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Old May 29, 2018, 2:49 pm
  #40  
 
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My Wife and I are on a flight from ORD/DFW on Sat (EMB 175). Booked 3, F9, R7, no CPU. Both 1K's. Strange.
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Old May 29, 2018, 3:30 pm
  #41  
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Originally Posted by dshafiee
My Wife and I are on a flight from ORD/DFW on Sat (EMB 175). Booked 3, F9, R7, no CPU. Both 1K's. Strange.
Call 1K and ask them to push.

David
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Old May 29, 2018, 4:43 pm
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by DELee
Call 1K and ask them to push.

David
Ha! That would never work
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Old May 29, 2018, 5:14 pm
  #43  
 
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Originally Posted by dshafiee
Ha! That would never work
I always call when R space opens and the sweep hadn't occurred - works for me every single time......
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Old May 29, 2018, 5:17 pm
  #44  
 
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Originally Posted by HNLbasedFlyer
I always call when R space opens and the sweep hadn't occurred - works for me every single time......
I am sensing thread drift. I hope people aren’t doing that because that is against policy and is a waste of agents’ time.
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Old May 29, 2018, 7:02 pm
  #45  
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Originally Posted by boat9781


I am sensing thread drift. I hope people aren’t doing that because that is against policy and is a waste of agents’ time.
If you're waitlisted for an instrument, call. If you're hoping for a CPU, don't bother.
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