New UA Destinations coming soon Rumors
Apr 18, 2018, 9:17 pm
#76
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: SF Bay Area
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Posts: 320
Continuing on my SFO-India argument, I think the success of a route depends not just on how high yield the markets are, but how bad the alternatives are.
Before SFO-TLV and SFO-SIN, the alternatives were terrible. The HKG-SIN flight landed at 1am making you effectively lose a day. Almost every business traveler I know in the Bay Area will choose the westbound SFO-SIN United nonstop as it leaves late at night and arrives in the morning. Most paid J biz travelers I know care less about the seat, and more about how little time they will have to spend away from their families and how many miles they can earn (since they use those to fly their spouses/kids/etc.)
Right now, you basically lose two days when flying from the Bay Area to India. Based on the length of the flight, they could easily do a midnight departure landing at 7am in Mumbai (similar to the AI SFO-DEL which is now twice daily on some days).
At my company we have just as many people who travel to India as we do to Tokyo or Hong Kong. Those two other cities are served by many non stops from California but India isn’t. I’m sure if United added a SF to India flight (that’s timed properly) not only would it be full but they would be able to charge a large premium for it. (The one consideration is that LH would probably have to downgauge one of its SFO to Germany flights.)
Before SFO-TLV and SFO-SIN, the alternatives were terrible. The HKG-SIN flight landed at 1am making you effectively lose a day. Almost every business traveler I know in the Bay Area will choose the westbound SFO-SIN United nonstop as it leaves late at night and arrives in the morning. Most paid J biz travelers I know care less about the seat, and more about how little time they will have to spend away from their families and how many miles they can earn (since they use those to fly their spouses/kids/etc.)
Right now, you basically lose two days when flying from the Bay Area to India. Based on the length of the flight, they could easily do a midnight departure landing at 7am in Mumbai (similar to the AI SFO-DEL which is now twice daily on some days).
At my company we have just as many people who travel to India as we do to Tokyo or Hong Kong. Those two other cities are served by many non stops from California but India isn’t. I’m sure if United added a SF to India flight (that’s timed properly) not only would it be full but they would be able to charge a large premium for it. (The one consideration is that LH would probably have to downgauge one of its SFO to Germany flights.)
Apr 18, 2018, 10:17 pm
#77
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 451
The key distinction here is that UA had been in BKK for close to 30 years so knew the market pretty well, but hadn't been in the SFO - TLV market before.
Nice urban legend, but as I know the people who actually worked on the business case for this flight, I can guarantee you this is the stuff of legend that makes for good story telling. Airline route planners and sales people meet with interested groups all the time who talk to them about new route opportunities. When they see compelling ideas they may augment already-existing knowledge with the new stuff, but it's very rare that it's the main progenitor of such a route. Neat story though.
I, too, would love to see an IAD route. Time will tell.
Nice urban legend, but as I know the people who actually worked on the business case for this flight, I can guarantee you this is the stuff of legend that makes for good story telling. Airline route planners and sales people meet with interested groups all the time who talk to them about new route opportunities. When they see compelling ideas they may augment already-existing knowledge with the new stuff, but it's very rare that it's the main progenitor of such a route. Neat story though.
I, too, would love to see an IAD route. Time will tell.
Apr 19, 2018, 3:33 am
#78
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 10,224
I don't pretend to know anything about UA's thinking, but I certainly think that a SFO-CAN route that ran daily and didn't route through WUH like CZ's does would be a popular option. UA's coverage in the South of mainland China is non-existent and a flight to HK plus a cross border journey that takes at least 3-4 hours isn't a good solution.
Apr 19, 2018, 7:15 am
#79
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Join Date: Jan 2009
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One factor is that UA's new seat plans are all relatively premium heavy, suggesting that UA recognises that it will be making money from the front cabin rather than the back cabin. With that in mind, I would imagine that UA will choose a route where there is significant business demand, and be willing to get what it gets from the back of the bus. Hence my money is on a SFO-India route - AI is not a strong competitor, at least to North Americans and anyone travelling from the West Coast to India will far prefer the short hop to SFO than trying to go through EWR.
Apr 19, 2018, 7:23 am
#80
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: NYC: UA 1K, DL Platinum, AAirpass, Avis PC
Posts: 4,599
One factor is that UA's new seat plans are all relatively premium heavy, suggesting that UA recognises that it will be making money from the front cabin rather than the back cabin. With that in mind, I would imagine that UA will choose a route where there is significant business demand, and be willing to get what it gets from the back of the bus. Hence my money is on a SFO-India route - AI is not a strong competitor, at least to North Americans and anyone travelling from the West Coast to India will far prefer the short hop to SFO than trying to go through EWR.
Apr 19, 2018, 7:57 am
#81
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 1,309
If you can point to an article or something that shows United acknowledging this, then maybe. Right now, it's just some guy who head from some techies that this is what happened.
Apr 19, 2018, 8:18 am
#82
Join Date: Oct 2017
Programs: SPG, Marriott, UA, AA, CX, SQ
Posts: 165
what’s this obsession with BKK ? if u really need to head there, there are JV options with ANA and many other code-share and/or interline options to connect via PEK (CA TG) PVG (TG) ICN (TG OZ) TPE (BR TG) HKG (TG CX) or even SIN (TG SQ)
when UA had the right plane type (787) they had options to reinstate BKK or actually follow the money (TLV). That gambit has worked out far better than how any of the route planners had initially envisioned it.
when UA had the right plane type (787) they had options to reinstate BKK or actually follow the money (TLV). That gambit has worked out far better than how any of the route planners had initially envisioned it.
Apr 19, 2018, 8:53 am
#83
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Washington, DC
Programs: UA 1K 1MM, AA, DL
Posts: 7,418
That said, your general thinking makes sense - it's surprising this flight doesn't exist currently.
Apr 19, 2018, 9:01 am
#84
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: CLE
Programs: UA 1K MM, DL Plat
Posts: 982
It's still a major market (I personally am there 2-4 times per year), and while everything you say is true, its location and the relationship UA has with its *A partners makes it _intensely_ annoying to get to. We can just go ahead and write off PEK and PVG -- if you willingly transit there, you deserve what you get.
TPE works badly - the timing of the UA SFO-TPE flight means that there is only a single BR flight that will still get you to BKK same-day, and UA doesn't like selling BR segments. The times I've done this route, I've had to be on separate tickets, and got screwed once by a misconnect.
SIN requires an overnight. I've never done ICN, but equally, I have never once (to my recollection) been presented with that as an available connection point when searching for flights -- probably timing issues, or similar UA+OZ issues like TPE. The most convenient connection point is one you don't mention - NRT. But unless you're on paid Business, it sucks for UA fliers, because NRT-BKK is not an easy upgrade, and requires extra instruments to use anyhow, UA won't sell NH PE, and is still a pretty long segment to be packed in NH Y.
Aside from KUL, which is an easy hop based on flight times from HKG or SIN, I can think of no other major Asian capital market that has so much traffic, and yet is so inconvenient to get to from the USA.
Apr 19, 2018, 9:03 am
#85
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what’s this obsession with BKK ? if u really need to head there, there are JV options with ANA and many other code-share and/or interline options to connect via PEK (CA TG) PVG (TG) ICN (TG OZ) TPE (BR TG) HKG (TG CX) or even SIN (TG SQ)
when UA had the right plane type (787) they had options to reinstate BKK or actually follow the money (TLV). That gambit has worked out far better than how any of the route planners had initially envisioned it.
when UA had the right plane type (787) they had options to reinstate BKK or actually follow the money (TLV). That gambit has worked out far better than how any of the route planners had initially envisioned it.
ANA is not a comfortable option (especially in economy), and it is a 6.5 hour flight. Unfortunately, the JV means this is the route that United wants to funnel people. Using HKG / TPE / SIN, etc means either paying a huge premium (due to plating restrictions/Fare rules) or assuming a lot of risk with booking separate tickets.
SFO->BKK would be a huge add to the network. Assuming a late night departure, this would mean a 1-stop trip from CVG, all on United metal.
Apr 19, 2018, 9:15 am
#86
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 11,461
what’s this obsession with BKK ? if u really need to head there, there are JV options with ANA and many other code-share and/or interline options to connect via PEK (CA TG) PVG (TG) ICN (TG OZ) TPE (BR TG) HKG (TG CX) or even SIN (TG SQ)
when UA had the right plane type (787) they had options to reinstate BKK or actually follow the money (TLV). That gambit has worked out far better than how any of the route planners had initially envisioned it.
when UA had the right plane type (787) they had options to reinstate BKK or actually follow the money (TLV). That gambit has worked out far better than how any of the route planners had initially envisioned it.
Apr 19, 2018, 9:42 am
#87
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: NYC
Programs: UA-1K MM, AA-Gold, DL-Silver, AS-MVP
Posts: 2,508
I tend to buy my BKK/SE Asia fares around a month out for work/holiday (P/Z fares), I just don't know if there are that many US/Thai business that would have people to go to BKK last min and pay the higher C/D fares.
Apr 19, 2018, 9:53 am
#88
Join Date: May 2001
Location: RNO, NV, USA.
Programs: UA 2MM
Posts: 5,063
It's still a major market (I personally am there 2-4 times per year), and while everything you say is true, its location and the relationship UA has with its *A partners makes it _intensely_ annoying to get to. We can just go ahead and write off PEK and PVG -- if you willingly transit there, you deserve what you get.
TPE works badly - the timing of the UA SFO-TPE flight means that there is only a single BR flight that will still get you to BKK same-day, and UA doesn't like selling BR segments. The times I've done this route, I've had to be on separate tickets, and got screwed once by a misconnect.
SIN requires an overnight. I've never done ICN, but equally, I have never once (to my recollection) been presented with that as an available connection point when searching for flights -- probably timing issues, or similar UA+OZ issues like TPE. The most convenient connection point is one you don't mention - NRT. But unless you're on paid Business, it sucks for UA fliers, because NRT-BKK is not an easy upgrade, and requires extra instruments to use anyhow, UA won't sell NH PE, and is still a pretty long segment to be packed in NH Y.
Aside from KUL, which is an easy hop based on flight times from HKG or SIN, I can think of no other major Asian capital market that has so much traffic, and yet is so inconvenient to get to from the USA.
TPE works badly - the timing of the UA SFO-TPE flight means that there is only a single BR flight that will still get you to BKK same-day, and UA doesn't like selling BR segments. The times I've done this route, I've had to be on separate tickets, and got screwed once by a misconnect.
SIN requires an overnight. I've never done ICN, but equally, I have never once (to my recollection) been presented with that as an available connection point when searching for flights -- probably timing issues, or similar UA+OZ issues like TPE. The most convenient connection point is one you don't mention - NRT. But unless you're on paid Business, it sucks for UA fliers, because NRT-BKK is not an easy upgrade, and requires extra instruments to use anyhow, UA won't sell NH PE, and is still a pretty long segment to be packed in NH Y.
Aside from KUL, which is an easy hop based on flight times from HKG or SIN, I can think of no other major Asian capital market that has so much traffic, and yet is so inconvenient to get to from the USA.
Apr 19, 2018, 9:57 am
#89
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Houston, TX
Programs: UA 1K, 2.3 MM
Posts: 439
I'd love SFO-BKK/SGN. However, is there enough business demand there? If its mostly a leisure route I don't see UA launching this, especially when SFO-BKK RT is ~600 these days. Based on the distance, I'm also assuming this would be a 787 route. Either way, I'm hoping for it!
I wonder how TG or VN would react to this. SQ quickly scheduled its own competing flight.
I wonder how TG or VN would react to this. SQ quickly scheduled its own competing flight.
Apr 19, 2018, 10:00 am
#90
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 352
Darlox - I believe you have accurately summarized the issues trying to fly USA-BKK. It is a major Star Alliance market. It seems that UA deliberately makes it challenging to fly to BKK. In my opinion, it was a mistake for UA to abandon BKK, after so many years flying there. Instead we were offered trial ballons such as Xi'an. I usually fly through TPE. However as you note, UA has timed this to make it as inconvenient as possible to get to BKK. The flight arrives in the evening, and I too have missed the last BR flight to BKK, when UA arrived 1 1/2 hours late. Of course I must buy separate tickets, as UA will only sell me full fare BR or TG. The return flight leave too early in the morning to allow a same day transfer from BKK. One must over night in TPE. The UA flight TPE-SFO arrives into SFO so early, often one waits for customs and immigration to open. Am I paranoid thinking UA is doing its best to prevent me from flying SFO-TPE-BKK?
BR206 (BKK->TPE) arrives TPE at 6:35am, this gives you ~3 hours layover in TPE to UA872.
Both flights are lie-flat 777-300ERs, can be had RT for about $850 in J and $300 in Y.
Last edited by east_west; Apr 19, 2018 at 10:14 am