New UA Destinations coming soon Rumors
Apr 18, 2018, 6:06 am
#31
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The NH/UA joint venture is instructive to identify major markets which UA does not serve nonstop from the US. These include BKK, CGK, MNL and SGN. The others are HKG, TPE, SIN. Of these, BKK-SFO and SGN-LAX make the most sense, to me.
Last edited by EWR764; Apr 18, 2018 at 6:12 am
Apr 18, 2018, 6:07 am
#32
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: BOS<>NYC<>BKK
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When UA ended NRT-BKK-NRT some years ago, it was reported that the route made a $40M+ yearly profit for UA. But it required the equivalent of a dedicated wide-body for the NRT tag, and UA determined it could make more money by deploying it elsewhere and entering into the JV with NH. This from a good friend who talked directly to the BKK station manager at the time.
At that time, UA did not have aircraft that could make US-BKK non-stop (i.e. 787-9). And now they do. As the 787-10s come on-line (that have shorter range), it will free some 787-9s for new ULH missions.
As has been noted elsewhere frequently, J pax avoid the NH NRT-BKK, because of the crappy "domestic" J seat they run on the route. After flying 15+ hours from the US on a nice lie-flat, switching to a lounger for six more is unacceptable given the fares. Those of us in the know try to take UA to HKG then connect to TG, but the J fares are usually much higher than NH from NRT and tough to justify. Plus, at some times of the year the northbound early TG to HKG does not connect to the bank of UA departures from HKG.
I would not be surprised at all if UA is at least looking at SFO-BKK. #FingersCrossed
At that time, UA did not have aircraft that could make US-BKK non-stop (i.e. 787-9). And now they do. As the 787-10s come on-line (that have shorter range), it will free some 787-9s for new ULH missions.
As has been noted elsewhere frequently, J pax avoid the NH NRT-BKK, because of the crappy "domestic" J seat they run on the route. After flying 15+ hours from the US on a nice lie-flat, switching to a lounger for six more is unacceptable given the fares. Those of us in the know try to take UA to HKG then connect to TG, but the J fares are usually much higher than NH from NRT and tough to justify. Plus, at some times of the year the northbound early TG to HKG does not connect to the bank of UA departures from HKG.
I would not be surprised at all if UA is at least looking at SFO-BKK. #FingersCrossed
Apr 18, 2018, 6:12 am
#33
Join Date: Sep 2009
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One more data point, VN labor cost is something like 6 to 8 cents a passenger mile versus 20 to 25 for UA.
Apr 18, 2018, 6:19 am
#34
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Apr 18, 2018, 6:21 am
#35
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As far as actually blocking seats from sale, as a rule, I am only aware of IAH-SYD at the moment due to routing restrictions associated with UA not yet having ETOPS 330 certification.
If there is a business case for the route, the westbound winter performance of the 789 won’t be a limiting factor for the routes we are discussing.
Apr 18, 2018, 6:25 am
#36
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It's only the 6:30 flight that still has the torture chairs. The 5pm and both of the HND flights are 789s with full flat now.
Apr 18, 2018, 6:30 am
#37
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Could you explain VN labor cost and how it's related to UA / new routes? #newbalert
Apr 18, 2018, 6:37 am
#38
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IMHO, UA has an increasingly difficult time competing on the TPAC routes and has been decreasing capacity steadily in a rapidly expanding market. I am a skeptic with regard to their long term ability to compete on the TPAC routes given their much higher costs and much lower quality product and service.
Apr 18, 2018, 6:51 am
#39
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IMHO, UA has an increasingly difficult time competing on the TPAC routes and has been decreasing capacity steadily in a rapidly expanding market. I am a skeptic with regard to their long term ability to compete on the TPAC routes given their much higher costs and much lower quality product and service.
I think ORD-TLV is possible, as it is technically an Asian route. Maybe the badly needed EWR/ORD-ICN? Of the SE Asian destinations, I would say the likelihood of each happening is BKK, SGN, and then MNL. A route to a secondary city in India would also be exciting such as EWR-BLR/MAA/CCU/HYD, but I don’t think it’s likely due to the ME3.
Apr 18, 2018, 6:57 am
#40
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Would love to see any of those routes x-SFO. I wonder if SFO/LAX-GUM is in the mix with the military build-up moving forward. There will be a lot more demand there. I've also wondered if they do SFO-GUM-KUL/SGN. I think that's more of a dream than reality but one can hope.
Apr 18, 2018, 7:03 am
#41
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I think you need to count the seats. I can't remember the numbers, but l think last year was the only exception with something like a 1% increase in
Asian capacity (which they somehow turned into an 5% decrease in traffic.) It's not just the number of routes but there has been significant downguaging and big cuts in frequencies on all the Japan routes.
Asian capacity (which they somehow turned into an 5% decrease in traffic.) It's not just the number of routes but there has been significant downguaging and big cuts in frequencies on all the Japan routes.
Apr 18, 2018, 7:04 am
#42
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I used to email back and forth with Brian Znotkins, UA's old VP of Network before he bolted to WestJet, mostly to lobby about putting BKK back on the schedule. Right after the announcement of SFO-SIN route he told me SFO-BKK would probably be two to three years away, but it was planned. UA suspected TG would drop its one stop service through Korea, which it later did, and hoped this and some other factors would reduce pricing pressure. Then he left, Smisek got shot and then Oscar/Kirby arrived with a more domestic focus. By then I thought any BKK plan probably went by the wayside. I'm not holding my breath, but maybe they are looking at it again. It sure would be nice.
Apr 18, 2018, 7:12 am
#44
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I think you need to count the seats. I can't remember the numbers, but l think last year was the only exception with something like a 1% increase in
Asian capacity (which they somehow turned into an 5% decrease in traffic.) It's not just the number of routes but there has been significant downguaging and big cuts in frequencies on all the Japan routes.
Asian capacity (which they somehow turned into an 5% decrease in traffic.) It's not just the number of routes but there has been significant downguaging and big cuts in frequencies on all the Japan routes.
What are the Japan frequency cuts? GUM is really its own entity, affected by exogenous factors, and the intra-Asia flying has mostly been replaced by nonstops.
Apr 18, 2018, 7:45 am
#45
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Would love all three. Hopefully we get at least one or two of these. SFO-BKK I think would make the most sense. SFO-KUL might be a little too close to SIN, but hasn't Malaysian Airlines pretty much collapsed for intl routes? Maybe UA thinks they can take over the US-Malaysia market nicely. SFO-SGN is interesting.