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My First Premier Silver Upgrade Eligible Flight Question

My First Premier Silver Upgrade Eligible Flight Question

Old Nov 17, 2018, 1:30 am
  #31  
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Originally Posted by theboss7593
Odds of a Silver clearing on a Tuesday 6am flight in 3 weeks MCO-EWR? 757-200 is the equipment with only 41 seats sold in E and 3 sold in J with 13 remaining in J... I know it's still pretty far out but I feel like I have a decent shot...

Other option is Tampa 6AM flight 737-900 with 38 seats sold in E and 3 sold in J with 17 remaining.
There's actually only one J seat sold on the MCO flight; 4AB are blocked -- I think for crew rest? -- but will be made available during check-in. You never know when people may elect to buy-up, but a Tuesday morning in early December in a leisure market has to be a prime Silver upgrade opportunity.

UA's actually a little more bullish on their chances to sell the TPA seats, despite having 20 vs 16. They're offering two seats for confirmed upgrades (with miles or an RPU/GPU) on the MCO flight but none on the TPA flight.
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Old Nov 17, 2018, 1:47 am
  #32  
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Originally Posted by theboss7593
counted on the map, I know some people haven't selected seats but it's a rough estimate..
It’s probably a pretty terrible estimate. Anyone on really low fares (a large number given its MCO) can’t have had a seat allocated yet.

If you post the date and flight number we can look up the fare availability for a slightly better guess.

Last edited by LondonElite; Nov 17, 2018 at 2:19 am
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Old Nov 17, 2018, 3:12 am
  #33  
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Originally Posted by LondonElite
Its probably a pretty terrible estimate. Anyone on really low fares (a large number given its MCO) cant have had a seat allocated yet.
Anyone who purchased Basic Economy isn't competition for upgrades anyway.
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Old Nov 17, 2018, 3:51 am
  #34  
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Originally Posted by jsloan
Anyone who purchased Basic Economy isn't competition for upgrades anyway.
That's true, of course, and well-taken. I want to make the point that the seat map is a poor indicator of actual sales.
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Old Nov 17, 2018, 7:20 am
  #35  
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Although route specific, I had gotten more upgrades as a Silver, than Gold, and than Plat. The good days of Silver!

Now I just buy discounted F/J tix if I want to ride the front. Waiting for upgrades are hopeless - can't even give away my RPUs, and fuggedabout CPUs.

Last edited by Repooc17; Nov 17, 2018 at 7:25 am
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Old Nov 17, 2018, 2:40 pm
  #36  
 
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Originally Posted by LondonElite


It’s probably a pretty terrible estimate. Anyone on really low fares (a large number given its MCO) can’t have had a seat allocated yet.

If you post the date and flight number we can look up the fare availability for a slightly better guess.
While I would agree with you as it being a bad method , as pointed out E- doesn't have CPU opportunity. nevertheless moving on...

12/11 UAL2032.. JSloan sniffed that one right out, and by the way JSloan thanks for your prompt reply, you always have an answer for my questions!
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Old Nov 17, 2018, 2:52 pm
  #37  
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Originally Posted by theboss7593
Odds of a Silver clearing on a Tuesday 6am flight in 3 weeks MCO-EWR? 757-200 is the equipment with only 41 seats sold in E and 3 sold in J with 13 remaining in J... I know it's still pretty far out but I feel like I have a decent shot...
Nil, and your bad proxy for sales doesn't change it.
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Old Nov 17, 2018, 3:06 pm
  #38  
 
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Originally Posted by mduell
Nil, and your bad proxy for sales doesn't change it.
In the next 2 weeks aside from the holiday the first flight from MCO-EWR shows pretty good J availability across the board, even at T-24 there is still 4-6 seats available... and upgrades going out (or TODs). To say NIL is a bit aggressive. While, I know the odds of upgrading as a Silver are slim to NIL, I think this has decent shot and was asking the community their thoughts... Why do you think it's a NIL?
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Old Nov 17, 2018, 3:27 pm
  #39  
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Because there's a bunch of non-silvers and companions ahead of silvers.

Silvers should never expect an upgrade is really possible. I've been on flights where they got them, and it's a complete fluke.
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Old Nov 17, 2018, 3:38 pm
  #40  
 
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Originally Posted by theboss7593
In the next 2 weeks aside from the holiday the first flight from MCO-EWR shows pretty good J availability across the board, even at T-24 there is still 4-6 seats available... and upgrades going out (or TODs). To say NIL is a bit aggressive. While, I know the odds of upgrading as a Silver are slim to NIL, I think this has decent shot and was asking the community their thoughts... Why do you think it's a NIL?
Available seats at T-24 is fairly meaningless since there could be any number of elites on the upgrade list. If you start seeing the MCO-EWR flights go out with empty F, or with novrevs clearing into F, then I'd say you could possibly have a shot. While your chances are not statistically nil, they are very close to it. If you want the upgrade, you should be prepared to purchase it.

Also, the statement about E- not being eligible for upgrades is false. As a Silver, you're stuck in E- until T-24, and any Silver on a higher fare class than you will easily trump you for the upgrade.
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Old Nov 17, 2018, 4:20 pm
  #41  
 
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Originally Posted by pushmyredbutton
Available seats at T-24 is fairly meaningless since there could be any number of elites on the upgrade list. If you start seeing the MCO-EWR flights go out with empty F, or with novrevs clearing into F, then I'd say you could possibly have a shot. While your chances are not statistically nil, they are very close to it. If you want the upgrade, you should be prepared to purchase it.

Also, the statement about E- not being eligible for upgrades is false. As a Silver, you're stuck in E- until T-24, and any Silver on a higher fare class than you will easily trump you for the upgrade.
Wouldn't other elites already be upgraded at T-48, T-96 etc. if you have 8 seats open? I understand protecting a few seats but all 8 until the gate? Wouldn't it just be Silvers competing ? or possible last minute changers (upper elite) I don't know the system and just trying to understand it... If you read the TOD's thread I have zero problem paying for a TOD upgrade but given this is my first rodeo with UA Silver wanted to try it out..

Last edited by theboss7593; Nov 17, 2018 at 4:31 pm
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Old Nov 17, 2018, 5:38 pm
  #42  
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Originally Posted by theboss7593
Wouldn't other elites already be upgraded at T-48, T-96 etc. if you have 8 seats open? I understand protecting a few seats but all 8 until the gate? Wouldn't it just be Silvers competing ? or possible last minute changers (upper elite) I don't know the system and just trying to understand it... If you read the TOD's thread I have zero problem paying for a TOD upgrade but given this is my first rodeo with UA Silver wanted to try it out..
maybe or maybe not. Depending on various factors, UA may clear upgrades at the various windows, and often doesnt, and clears them closer in, sometimes doing them all (or most) at the gate. Why/when this happens is going to be pretty much a mystery - it just is what it is.

Youll hear folks typically say theyll leave 2 F seats open and clear them at the gate. Ive seen it that way many times. Ive seen others where they clear upgrades (or allow Paid upgrades) to the last seat in advance, and Ive also seen where they hold back multiple seats. Even during the holidays, with a Y oversale, Ive seen them block F seats, to leave room to clear, and they do those all at the gate. And other times with the same where rev management appears to clear those on the list into blocked F seats at some interval within T-24. It could be pretty mich anything.

Of course, YMMV.
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Old Nov 17, 2018, 10:14 pm
  #43  
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Originally Posted by mduell
Nil, and your bad proxy for sales doesn't change it.
It wouldnt surprise me at all if a Tuesday morning, 6:45 AM flight in early December from Orlando to Newark would be an upgrade opportunity for Silver members. (Incidentally, the flight was PZ2 when I checked, so UA was willing to confirm an instrument upgrade, which I rarely see three weeks out domestically).

Were talking a leisure route, off-peak travel day, unpopular travel time, and off-peak season. A couple of weeks earlier or later, Id probably agree, but the time between Thanksgiving and Christmas is relatively slow for Florida travel, especially northbound.

Its certainly not something Id count on, and I agree that Id check for an attractive upgrade offer rather than expect the CPU to clear. But its not out of the question. When we see reports of Silvers clearing, its in these kind of situations.
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Old Nov 17, 2018, 11:01 pm
  #44  
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Originally Posted by theboss7593
Wouldn't other elites already be upgraded at T-48, T-96 etc.
It's very common for UA not to run any sweeps before T-24. Just ran into this the other day . . . 739 was booked 9/20 in F, no sweep until T-24, when I and 8 others cleared. Flight wound up with a bunch of names on the waitlist. I would guess they cleared GS, 1Ks, and maybe some Plats, leaving lower fare Plats plus Golds and Silvers still listed.
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Old Nov 18, 2018, 3:56 am
  #45  
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Originally Posted by Kacee
It's very common for UA not to run any sweeps before T-24. Just ran into this the other day . . . 739 was booked 9/20 in F, no sweep until T-24, when I and 8 others cleared. Flight wound up with a bunch of names on the waitlist. I would guess they cleared GS, 1Ks, and maybe some Plats, leaving lower fare Plats plus Golds and Silvers still listed.
I assume you checked it was PN0 for your flight until the sweep is that why you say it was also GS clearing at T-24? My recent experiences have been that, when there is a lot of unsold space, it has been PN>0 from at least T-120, but it stays PZ0 until T-24, when it may do a sweep as you describe.
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