raehl311

I don't know if I'd call it the lottery if I'm pretty sure I'll win. Since I'm plat now I am fortunately out of the game, but when I was doing a lot more international travel, I would pretty much always play. The only "losses" I had were having to do HNL-GUM in barcaloungers.

But I usually had the luxury of booking flights on days with more availability, and would use SDC to move myself to flights with better odds, like switching between MSP-SFO-HKG, MSP-ORD-HKG, and MSP-EWR-HKG. I also did not try on I assume hard-to-upgrade flights like LAX-SYD or EWR-DEL.

flyerbjorn

I use pretty much all my GPUs on SYD-SFO or (less often) SYD-LAX. Upgrades tend to clear on Mon-Thu departures. Some 777 flights even left with empty seats. Not sure about the 787s with fewer seats.

lhrsfo

Buying W when R>0 isn't the lottery, so I only play if PN=9 when I book and have had 100% success rate so far (I pray I haven't jinxed it). My last two flights I really regretted having paid up since Y was so empty, I could have snagged 4 across on the 747 which is pretty well as good as J.

As to price difference, I only book W on the Eastbound overnight flights and it's generally about $200.

ftweb

In 2017 played 10 times, won 4. Lost well over $1000. Done playing this year. I wish I could just cash in my GPUs for 20000 miles. Miles+copay clears way more often for me--like 80% of the time.

halls120

During the years when I was a 1K, I never bought W or higher unless I could secure an upgrade at purchase.

Chevelter

I refuse to play the lottery game. On a recent trip to China the extra cost to upgrade to a GPU-eligible fare was an absurd $1,700 on the outbound nonstop leg. (That was business to first. My host bought the business class ticket) I used $550 & 30,000 miles instead. I have been able to use one GPU internationally in the past year or so, again from business class to first, when my host happened to purchase an eligible fare. Otherwise, my GPUs are applied domestically and often on United Express flights - and with mixed success. Have to use up all these things somehow.

PaulInTheSky

Fortunately not so much, because I don't play too much of the lottery game unless some conditions are met, with most of the R inventories cleared at booking, but I can say, roughly $100-$200 per trip considering the fare differences and most of the legs that we are quite sure won't be available at booking(domestic hub-to-hub), and that comes down to the GPU lottery decision making based upon my priorities.

If it's work trip booked in INTL Y, then yes, definitely no choice but would play that game.

If it's vacation/personal trip, I usually look at my destinations, price difference, and inventories before I decide, so decisions based on priorities:

1. INTL leg/legs with R inventories available at booking.
2. One direction with R(Red-eye/overnight), the other direction without R(Daytime) but with promising upgrade possibilites(P9/I9/Day of travel/Time sensitivity)
3. Slightly less desirable timings but other red-eye flights from other locations show R(e.g. LAX-SYD without R yet SFO-SYD with R, even if that scarifies domestic connection times or domestic R clearing)

--> If it satisfies either one of the first three priorities, I'd probably go with the GPU lottery.

3. Any less desirable circumstances in 2, but at least something can clear with GPU/RPUs.
4. Domestic leg/legs with R inventories available at booking but with promising upgrade possibilites(P9/I9/Day of travel/Time sensitivity)
5. Price difference negligible.

--> If there's not much choice like in 3-5, or there is no other competing fares around, I may still go with GPU lottery. Apparently, we'd try to avoid that, but you never really know.


Also, you have to take the good with the bad.

1. If INTL legs clear but domestic legs don't, I call it a win.
2. If INTL legs clear but rebooked into Star/non-Star premium cabin, I call it a win.
3. If INTL legs clear but rebooked into non Star partner (close to full J/Y) such that I can double dip, I call it a wash.

But there's one lottery game that I am seriously contemplating to play:

Getting to the J in 747 and trying at least once in Polaris F before the 747s are gone, but with the competitive J fares all across the networks, it may be cheaper to just go with miles+co-pay.

fl1ger

Moin!

I have not payed up to use a GPU so far. A lot of my travel is last minute so is W and higher anyway. I had no problem using all of my 6 and sometimes 8 GPU so far. They are usually gone in less then half a year, and I apply them to all my eastbound flights, with a success rate >50% so far.

So long
-Ralf

mauiUAflyer

I generally use the GPUs as an extra set of RPUs, for when I have to buy a coach ticket for domestic work travel. I often purchase biz for INTL trips.

I did IAD-FRA-IAD this year; paid for biz on the IAD-FRA red-eye (and I wanted to be sure to sit next to a colleague on the way over). On the way back, it was a day-flight, and there was a good E+ bulkhead on the 772, also C was showing pretty wide open (but R=0). I rolled the dice, and did get the upgrade, although by then all that was left was the interior seats in the C cabin. But you know, it wasn't that bad!

aacharya

I did it EWR-SNN-EWR. Cost $192 total more than the originally booked class.

Won the lottery there, lost it on the way back.

symphonicman

Typically pay $300-500 extra per RT overwater for W or Q (on LH). Clearance rate between 60% and 80% (last year was on the lousy end, this year very good so far). Occasional discount P fares. End up flying in J more than half the time for a bit less than half the cost of Z, so it's acceptable to me—maybe a 30% effective discount overall historically, which I am working to increase to more like 50% by being more clever about which flights I waitlist.

Artpen100

That is pretty much been me, too. I did use two where there was R class at booking for IAD-AMS.

cfischer

probably $300-500 more per ticket. So far all have cleared ... no prob

Boogie711

Trying to get to Berlin in March. Obviously, R is 0 on anything I can see. Heck, I'd take Paris or London or Madrid or Oslo... whatever.

For W fare to Berlin - $1,600. For Premium Economy with Delta, $1,000.

I'm tempted to say screw it and just go Premium Economy. Thoughts? I mean, it's only a 7-8 hour flight...

findark

If playing the lottery, I would book LH PE as the underlying fare class. But for 1k r/t DL PE seems pretty darn attractive.