Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
Last edit by: WineCountryUA
This is an archive thread, the active thread is
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Related thread - Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Related thread - Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
Apr 17, 2019, 12:36 pm
#3871
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,400
It's not a fluke; it's just a matter of married segment availability. UA is willing to sell a P fare on ORD-(SFO)-SIN but not on SFO-SIN. It may be indicative of lighter load, but not necessarily. Absent an IT error, UA won't open PZ space on SFO-SIN unless they first open P space on SFO-SIN.
Apr 17, 2019, 1:10 pm
#3872
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Colorado, USA
Posts: 11
Great, thanks for the info! Doesn't sound like they will open PZ on the second segment of ORD-SFO-SIN before SFO-SIN, so I'll look at the second option as it's a much more convenient routing being based in DEN.
Apr 18, 2019, 6:52 pm
#3873
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: NYC (Primarily EWR)
Programs: UA 1K / *G, Marriott Bonvoy Gold; Avis PC
Posts: 9,005
Debating whether to pay $100/person to update my wife’s parents on PVG-EWR this Sunday and apply a GPU. Current fare buckets show 8 available for all J buckets except for P7 (PN, PZ and IN/I=0). They are general members. Any idea of how close-in buying on this route goes and if it’s worth the gamble?
Apr 18, 2019, 7:18 pm
#3874
Join Date: Nov 2012
Programs: BA Bronze, United 1K, HH Gold, SPG Platinum, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 3,477
Debating whether to pay $100/person to update my wife’s parents on PVG-EWR this Sunday and apply a GPU. Current fare buckets show 8 available for all J buckets except for P7 (PN, PZ and IN/I=0). They are general members. Any idea of how close-in buying on this route goes and if it’s worth the gamble?
The flight on Sunday Polaris Business is sold 41/50. I suspect that there are some higher status passengers already on the waitlist and also that some seats might disappear to TODs.
Apr 18, 2019, 7:43 pm
#3875
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: NYC (Primarily EWR)
Programs: UA 1K / *G, Marriott Bonvoy Gold; Avis PC
Posts: 9,005
The only thing I know is that last year on a PVG-ORD flight on a Q fare with a GPU applied and at T-24 Polaris Business was sold 32/40, I did not get the upgrade. As a 1K I was #1 on the upgrade list from time of check-in to the time of boarding.
The flight on Sunday Polaris Business is sold 41/50. I suspect that there are some higher status passengers already on the waitlist and also that some seats might disappear to TODs.
The flight on Sunday Polaris Business is sold 41/50. I suspect that there are some higher status passengers already on the waitlist and also that some seats might disappear to TODs.
Apr 18, 2019, 8:40 pm
#3876
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,452
The big question is whether 1Ks have been upgraded already. But I would also be hesitant to invest at 41/50.
Apr 18, 2019, 10:12 pm
#3877
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: NYC (Primarily EWR)
Programs: UA 1K / *G, Marriott Bonvoy Gold; Avis PC
Posts: 9,005
Apr 19, 2019, 8:12 pm
#3878
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: IAH, YYC
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 753
Hi all
my fiancé and I are due to fly SYD-YYC next Sunday Apr 28. Currently the fare is ticketed in G class, and is a horrible routing YYC-IAH-ORD-YYC (don’t ask, long story). Normally, I never ever play the upgrade lottery but looking at the loads on both the SYD-IAH and SYD-SFO flights that day, as well as the awful routing (W fare making it more likely to get a SDC through SFO) make me wonder whether we should do it.
Im guessing this will probably be an expensive shot at an upgrade with such a close in change to the fare, so I thought I should get the ft community’s thoughts on whether we have a good shot or not. When I looked a few moments ago the SYD-IAH flight was P9 PN4.
my fiancé and I are due to fly SYD-YYC next Sunday Apr 28. Currently the fare is ticketed in G class, and is a horrible routing YYC-IAH-ORD-YYC (don’t ask, long story). Normally, I never ever play the upgrade lottery but looking at the loads on both the SYD-IAH and SYD-SFO flights that day, as well as the awful routing (W fare making it more likely to get a SDC through SFO) make me wonder whether we should do it.
Im guessing this will probably be an expensive shot at an upgrade with such a close in change to the fare, so I thought I should get the ft community’s thoughts on whether we have a good shot or not. When I looked a few moments ago the SYD-IAH flight was P9 PN4.
Apr 19, 2019, 8:19 pm
#3879
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,452
Booked 33/48, and PN4 is obviously a positive. But my basic rule is don't pay extra to waitlist, only to confirm. This might be a good scenario for waitlisting the MP upgrade.
Apr 19, 2019, 10:47 pm
#3881
Moderator: United Airlines
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.995MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 66,850
Apr 21, 2019, 2:04 am
#3882
Moderator, Omni, Omni/PR, Omni/Games, FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Between DCA and IAD
Programs: UA 1K MM; Hilton Diamond
Posts: 67,129
UA 1016 on Monday, SFO-IAD. B fare on a 738.
I'm not holding my breath. 2 seats left, a Monday, and with me checked in more than 24 hours out, sure, I'm #1 , but I expect that to drop significantly come later today and tomorrow as others check in (I may be the only person checked in at the moment based on that list...).
I'm not holding my breath. 2 seats left, a Monday, and with me checked in more than 24 hours out, sure, I'm #1 , but I expect that to drop significantly come later today and tomorrow as others check in (I may be the only person checked in at the moment based on that list...).
Apr 21, 2019, 5:28 am
#3883
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: IAH, YYC
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 753
thanks. We ended up taking the shot. It was C$1000 to upfare both of us to W, and we both have GPUs which might otherwise go unutilized this year. This is the first time in about 3 years I have played the upgrade lottery. Fingers crossed!
Apr 21, 2019, 9:20 am
#3884
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Baltimore, MD
Programs: Hilton Diamond, Marriot Gold, Southwest A-List
Posts: 119
Apologies in advance if I'm stated anything wrong, first time doing this. My flight is already booked so no changing at this point, although I've read a lot that will help me next time I do something like this.
No status, Fare is G.
UA 870 SYD to SFO on 5/31:
37 of 48 are booked right now.
PZ is 0
J/JN are 6.
I submitted a MP waitlist upgrade. Any ideas on odds of an upgrade? Mostly curious. It was totally worth the gamble based on the cost in miles and copay vs the bought upgrade and if it doesn't work nothing lost.
Thanks!
No status, Fare is G.
UA 870 SYD to SFO on 5/31:
37 of 48 are booked right now.
PZ is 0
J/JN are 6.
I submitted a MP waitlist upgrade. Any ideas on odds of an upgrade? Mostly curious. It was totally worth the gamble based on the cost in miles and copay vs the bought upgrade and if it doesn't work nothing lost.
Thanks!
Apr 21, 2019, 9:28 am
#3885
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,400
When you're searching for inventory for upgrade purposes, you have to search just the flight you're interested in. It's actually J9 JN9 C3 D0, not J6. J6 would indicate a substantial oversell over the economy cabin. J9, unfortunately, does not.
Your odds of clearing are very low.
With only 11 seats for sale this far away from departure, there's a good chance UA sells most or all of those seats. If there are any seats available at check-in, you may get an upgrade offer. Any upgrades that do occur -- and it's likely there will be none -- will be prioritized by status.
Your odds of clearing are very low.
With only 11 seats for sale this far away from departure, there's a good chance UA sells most or all of those seats. If there are any seats available at check-in, you may get an upgrade offer. Any upgrades that do occur -- and it's likely there will be none -- will be prioritized by status.