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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Mar 28, 2019, 4:54 pm

#3781

Rumples

Join Date: Dec 2016

Programs: Mileage Plus 1K \\ ConciergeKey

Posts: 531

Yup - that’s what I figured as well - I looked out of LAX as well to see if that helped, but not much.

At at this point I pulled back my W booking and I’m waiting to see if confirmed space opens up in PZ as we get closer to departure day.

I remember not too too long ago when sfo tpe was still pretty light!

Thanks for the input!

Mar 28, 2019, 6:55 pm

#3782

Kacee

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Join Date: Apr 2013

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Posts: 56,454

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rumples

How does the space look for those who know how to read the tea leaves! Thank you in advance!

SFO-TPE is not a difficult route in general, but 4/21 is a Sunday which is notably difficult to clear TPAC. 4/26 is a Friday, which is a little better, but dicier than midweek.

The inventory figures don't provide information sufficient to provide an informed estimate. You really need the booking numbers to make any kind of informed estimated. It also helps to watch the flight for a while to see if PN has opened, as that will take GS off the waitlist, increasing odds 1K clears.

Mar 29, 2019, 9:50 am

#3783

nomad420

Join Date: Jul 2015

Location: San Francisco

Programs: UA MM Plat, UA 1MM, Hilton Lifetime Gold, Marriott Gold, Hertz Gold, CLEAR, AS MVP Gold

Posts: 3,618

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rumples

Typical route for my wife over the last several years, she works in the tech industry our of the valley here. I am not familiar with it myself but from what I have been told Taiwan has a growing tech industry hence the SFO-TPE connection. Per Kacee's comment she will typically take the flight into TPE on Sundays because of the time change. As is usually the case on TPAC flights mid week is always better. Good Luck!

Mar 29, 2019, 12:37 pm

#3784

Kacee

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Quote:

Originally Posted by nomad420

FoxConn is a Taiwan company.

BR and CI have substantial capacity on this route (BR three dailies, CI two).

Mar 29, 2019, 12:55 pm

#3785

nomad420

Join Date: Jul 2015

Location: San Francisco

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Posts: 3,618

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kacee

FoxConn is a Taiwan company.

BR and CI have substantial capacity on this route (BR three dailies, CI two).

Off topic but BR has 3 flights out of SFO a day??!!! Wow, did not realize that. SFO is apparently the gateway city to TPE not just locally but nationally.

Apr 2, 2019, 2:26 pm

#3786

jerseykeebs

Join Date: Sep 2017

Location: EWR

Posts: 81

Quote:

Originally Posted by StuckinITH

There's only one passenger in the upgrade list and that passenger is also on the standby list. It seems that the friend has not checked in yet.

Now that I think about it maybe the friend needs the visa for entry to China verified by check-in agents at the airport.

Updating just for DPs because I appreciated the comments. Friend's initial domestic connection was delayed enough to get him rerouted EWR-PEK direct. He was planning to buy miles, then pay the miles + cash copay for the upgrade, which would not have been a good use of money. He ended up doing E+ for $100. The new aircraft was 2-4-2 in business according to a seat map I found, so an E+ aisle seat with an empty middle wasn't much of a downgrade in my opinion.

He ended up buying up to biz on the way home (I think those are called TODs?) for $2k, but at least that was a 2-2-2 cabin configuration, also direct PEK-EWR.

Apr 4, 2019, 2:20 am

#3787

1k650

Join Date: May 2003

Programs: UA1k; Bonvoy Titanium; Hilton Gold; IHG Gold; AA Plat Pro

Posts: 1,794

Looking at SFO-NRT vs SFO-HND on 4/10 as a 1k - what are my chances of clearing? Would prefer SFO-NRT (polaris) but don't know how difficult is it nowadays.

Another request: which is more difficult SIN-SFO or HKG-SFO (mid-week travel) ?

Many thanks.

Apr 4, 2019, 8:28 am

#3788

jsloan

FlyerTalk Evangelist

Join Date: Oct 2001

Location: Austin, TX

Posts: 21,405

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1k650

Looking at SFO-NRT vs SFO-HND on 4/10 as a 1k - what are my chances of clearing? Would prefer SFO-NRT (polaris) but don't know how difficult is it nowadays.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1k650

which is more difficult SIN-SFO or HKG-SFO (mid-week travel) ?

It'll depend upon the flight loads. Before they added the second SIN-SFO flight, it was one of the most difficult upgrades in the system; with as much capacity as has come online on that route, though (between UA and SQ), you might have a shot. HKG-SFO can be upgraded mid-week in most cases.

Apr 4, 2019, 8:38 am

#3789

RockinRon

Join Date: Jul 2010

Location: CMH

Programs: UA 1K, 1MM, HH Diamond, Marriott Gold

Posts: 745

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockinRon

Suggestions on upgrading HNL-IAH for a family of 7? We are flying home from spring break on UA 252 (as are a lot of people!) and I am looking for options to upgrade to C short of a $2300 per person fee. Here's what I have looked at:

I have 6 GPUs and 3 RPUs, but since we are a record of 7, neither the web nor the 1K desk can "pool" them. We'd have to split the record and with 5 minors I'd rather not. Not to mention, waitlist only.

Miles + $$$ is $425 plus 30,000 per person. I'm willing to do that but need to transfer miles from at least one account to meet the 210k needed. Transferring miles is not cheap but could be an option. This is waitlist only as well so could be a wasted effort.

I am wondering if it'll all be for naught as there are not confirmed seats and waitlists.

Am I missing anything? I figured the collective wisdom here would be a good place to check.

Just to close the loop - I applied 6 GPUs and 1 RPU, our records were split and nobody was upgraded ex-HNL. The collective wisdom of FT was spot on, but you hit none of the balls you don't take a swing at.

Apr 4, 2019, 9:54 am

#3790

Kacee

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 1k650

Looking at SFO-NRT vs SFO-HND on 4/10 as a 1k - what are my chances of clearing? Would prefer SFO-NRT (polaris) but don't know how difficult is it nowadays.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsloan

SFO-NRT is PN2 PZ0 and booked 38/60; SFO-HND is PN4 PZ0 and booked 30/48.

Those are both likely to clear.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1k650

which is more difficult SIN-SFO or HKG-SFO (mid-week travel) ?

The flight that is more fully booked. Seriously, these abstract questions don't really have good answers.

Apr 4, 2019, 12:06 pm

#3791

1k650

Join Date: May 2003

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Posts: 1,794

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kacee

Those are both likely to clear.
The flight that is more fully booked. Seriously, these abstract questions don't really have good answers.

Touche !

Thanks a lot.

Apr 4, 2019, 12:08 pm

#3792

1k650

Join Date: May 2003

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Posts: 1,794

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsloan

SFO-NRT is PN2 PZ0 and booked 38/60; SFO-HND is PN4 PZ0 and booked 30/48. If you're buying economy, your chances are probably better on the HND flight because it doesn't have a Premium Plus cabin; on the NRT flight, you'd be behind anybody who purchased directly into those seats and has an upgrade to J applied.

It'll depend upon the flight loads. Before they added the second SIN-SFO flight, it was one of the most difficult upgrades in the system; with as much capacity as has come online on that route, though (between UA and SQ), you might have a shot. HKG-SFO can be upgraded mid-week in most cases.

How does one find out the load on a given flight? I know counting vacant seats is not reliable.

Apr 4, 2019, 12:21 pm

#3793

jsloan

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Join Date: Oct 2001

Location: Austin, TX

Posts: 21,405

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1k650

How does one find out the load on a given flight? I know counting vacant seats is not reliable.

https://cablepick.net/united provides links to the flight status page for future United flights (like I linked up for your NRT and HND flights).

Apr 4, 2019, 12:23 pm

#3794

Kacee

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 1k650

I know counting vacant seats is not reliable.

It actually is most of the time. The problem is you don't know if your flight is the outlier where 20 pax haven't selected seats yet.

Apr 4, 2019, 1:17 pm

#3795

1k650

Join Date: May 2003

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Posts: 1,794

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsloan

https://cablepick.net/united provides links to the flight status page for future United flights (like I linked up for your NRT and HND flights).

Thank you very much.