Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
Last edit by: WineCountryUA
This is an archive thread, the active thread is
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Related thread - Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Related thread - Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
Jan 23, 2019, 8:09 pm
#3601
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Washington, DC
Programs: UA1K MM, BA Gold, Hyatt LT Globalist, Bonvoy LTE, IHG Diam, HH Gold, Amtrak Sel Exec
Posts: 3,170
If your goal is to maximize E(number of upgrades) and don't care how the party may be split between cabins, I would check in right away and split the PNR. Note this will split the PNR for any downline travel, and may cause your party to be separated in the case of upgrades or IRROPS.
Jan 24, 2019, 12:54 am
#3602
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 14,379
Yes. There might some border case where you have a high but not infinite value on sitting together, and therefore want to try to get all 3 to clear at once by delaying check-in. It all depends on your priorities.
Jan 24, 2019, 5:32 am
#3603
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 8
MP Upgrade clearing question/chances:
United Gold, I'm booked in B on UA80 / UA2151 and I requested an upgrade using 20,000 points and $100 (or something close to that) about three weeks ago -- it's still showing as Upgrade Requested at about 96 hours out -- if I use "Change Seats" I can see two seats in Business on UA80 and a couple in First on UA2151.
Is there anything I can do at this stage to make the upgrade more likely to clear? Is there any way of figuring out when I’ll know if it will clear or not?
UA 80: J1 JN1 C1 D1 Z1 ZN1 P1 PN1 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y6 YN6 B6 M5 E5 U5 H5 HN5 Q4 V4 W3 S3 T2 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN2 X0
UA 2151: J1 JN1 C1 D1 Z1 ZN1 P1 PN1 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y6 YN6 B6 M5 E5 U5 H5 HN5 Q4 V4 W3 S3 T2 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN2 X0
United Gold, I'm booked in B on UA80 / UA2151 and I requested an upgrade using 20,000 points and $100 (or something close to that) about three weeks ago -- it's still showing as Upgrade Requested at about 96 hours out -- if I use "Change Seats" I can see two seats in Business on UA80 and a couple in First on UA2151.
Is there anything I can do at this stage to make the upgrade more likely to clear? Is there any way of figuring out when I’ll know if it will clear or not?
UA 80: J1 JN1 C1 D1 Z1 ZN1 P1 PN1 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y6 YN6 B6 M5 E5 U5 H5 HN5 Q4 V4 W3 S3 T2 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN2 X0
UA 2151: J1 JN1 C1 D1 Z1 ZN1 P1 PN1 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y6 YN6 B6 M5 E5 U5 H5 HN5 Q4 V4 W3 S3 T2 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN2 X0
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jan 25, 2019 at 2:11 am
Jan 24, 2019, 6:54 am
#3604
Join Date: Nov 2012
Programs: BA Bronze, United 1K, HH Gold, SPG Platinum, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 3,477
MP Upgrade clearing question/chances:
Star Gold, I'm booked in B on UA80 / UA2151 and I've requested an upgrade using 20,000 points and $100 (or something close to that) -- it's still showing as Upgrade Requested at about 96 hours out -- if I use "Change Seats" I can see two seats in Business on UA80 and a couple in First on UA2151.
Is there anything I can do at this stage to make the upgrade more likely to clear? Is there any way of figuring out when I’ll know if it will clear or not?
Star Gold, I'm booked in B on UA80 / UA2151 and I've requested an upgrade using 20,000 points and $100 (or something close to that) -- it's still showing as Upgrade Requested at about 96 hours out -- if I use "Change Seats" I can see two seats in Business on UA80 and a couple in First on UA2151.
Is there anything I can do at this stage to make the upgrade more likely to clear? Is there any way of figuring out when I’ll know if it will clear or not?
Jan 24, 2019, 8:04 am
#3605
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 11,443
United Gold, I'm booked in B on UA80 / UA2151 and I requested an upgrade using 20,000 points and $100 (or something close to that) about three weeks ago -- it's still showing as Upgrade Requested at about 96 hours out -- if I use "Change Seats" I can see two seats in Business on UA80 and a couple in First on UA2151.
Is there anything I can do at this stage to make the upgrade more likely to clear? Is there any way of figuring out when I’ll know if it will clear or not?
UA 80: J1 JN1 C1 D1 Z1 ZN1 P1 PN1 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y6 YN6 B6 M5 E5 U5 H5 HN5 Q4 V4 W3 S3 T2 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN2 X0
UA 2151: J1 JN1 C1 D1 Z1 ZN1 P1 PN1 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y6 YN6 B6 M5 E5 U5 H5 HN5 Q4 V4 W3 S3 T2 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN2 X0
Is there anything I can do at this stage to make the upgrade more likely to clear? Is there any way of figuring out when I’ll know if it will clear or not?
UA 80: J1 JN1 C1 D1 Z1 ZN1 P1 PN1 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y6 YN6 B6 M5 E5 U5 H5 HN5 Q4 V4 W3 S3 T2 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN2 X0
UA 2151: J1 JN1 C1 D1 Z1 ZN1 P1 PN1 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y6 YN6 B6 M5 E5 U5 H5 HN5 Q4 V4 W3 S3 T2 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN2 X0
At this point it's not likely you'll clear both flights, and there's not much you can do. You can watch for PZ to open on each flight and call to grab it if it does but you've not cleared. However, typically there's only a small chance of that happening.
Otherwise just remember to request a refund if you clear EWR-SEA only.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jan 25, 2019 at 2:12 am Reason: cleanup after merge
Jan 24, 2019, 8:41 am
#3606
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 8
It looks like you searched for MAN-SEA and then found the appropriate connecting option. To get an accurate inventory for upgrading you need to search MAN-EWR and EWR-SEA separately.
At this point it's not likely you'll clear both flights, and there's not much you can do. You can watch for PZ to open on each flight and call to grab it if it does but you've not cleared. However, typically there's only a small chance of that happening.
Otherwise just remember to request a refund if you clear EWR-SEA only.
edit: I see you basically cross-posted here; please don't do that!
At this point it's not likely you'll clear both flights, and there's not much you can do. You can watch for PZ to open on each flight and call to grab it if it does but you've not cleared. However, typically there's only a small chance of that happening.
Otherwise just remember to request a refund if you clear EWR-SEA only.
edit: I see you basically cross-posted here; please don't do that!
Jan 24, 2019, 10:53 am
#3607
Join Date: Jun 2006
Programs: Various
Posts: 6,525
Hi all, any advice from regular flyers on HKG routes? I need to depart the US on a Friday or Saturday in March, and return on a Sunday (could maybe do Monday if the first leg is on Saturday). I've been considering ORD, EWR, or SFO-HKG, or IAH-NRT (with a connecting flight to HKG that wouldn't be upgraded). There's obviously no PZ space at all right now (and hasn't been for quite a while). For the Friday and Saturday, there's a fluctuating P=1 to 4 on the SFO-HKG on Friday, but just C/J/Z on the rest. For the return, there are a couple of flights (HKG-EWR, NRT-IAH) with P=9.
I know that all of this is going to come down to luck, but any historical experience on this would be really welcome before I book. Thanks!
I know that all of this is going to come down to luck, but any historical experience on this would be really welcome before I book. Thanks!
Jan 24, 2019, 10:57 am
#3608
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,400
Hi all, any advice from regular flyers on HKG routes? I need to depart the US on a Friday or Saturday in March, and return on a Sunday (could maybe do Monday if the first leg is on Saturday). I've been considering ORD, EWR, or SFO-HKG, or IAH-NRT (with a connecting flight to HKG that wouldn't be upgraded). There's obviously no PZ space at all right now (and hasn't been for quite a while). For the Friday and Saturday, there's a fluctuating P=1 to 4 on the SFO-HKG on Friday, but just C/J/Z on the rest. For the return, there are a couple of flights (HKG-EWR, NRT-IAH) with P=9.
NRT-HKG on the AirJapan 767 is to be avoided if possible.
Jan 24, 2019, 4:03 pm
#3609
Join Date: Jun 2006
Programs: Various
Posts: 6,525
In general, you have much better chances Friday/Monday than Saturday/Sunday. Beyond that it's very flight specific. Picking based on available indicators, you would want the flight(s) with the highest P figure and the lowest "booked" percentage.
NRT-HKG on the AirJapan 767 is to be avoided if possible.
NRT-HKG on the AirJapan 767 is to be avoided if possible.
Jan 25, 2019, 1:26 am
#3610
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Washington, DC
Programs: UA1K MM, BA Gold, Hyatt LT Globalist, Bonvoy LTE, IHG Diam, HH Gold, Amtrak Sel Exec
Posts: 3,170
As posted above, I have used my GPUs for 3 family members on EWR-BOM this Saturday. It looks like it's booked to 54/60.
I've called and asked how the flights look a couple of times and I have some agents who tell me the # of people on the waitlist (about 20) but say that they can't say where my family members fall on the list, but I had one today who said very explicitly -- they are #13 , 14, and 15 on the list and will not clear. My guess right now is that they might not clear if there are 20 people on the list but there are so many factors that go into it that I found it odd that the agent was so definitive.
Anyway just out of curiousity, do the agents know exactly where people fall on the list?
I've called and asked how the flights look a couple of times and I have some agents who tell me the # of people on the waitlist (about 20) but say that they can't say where my family members fall on the list, but I had one today who said very explicitly -- they are #13 , 14, and 15 on the list and will not clear. My guess right now is that they might not clear if there are 20 people on the list but there are so many factors that go into it that I found it odd that the agent was so definitive.
Anyway just out of curiousity, do the agents know exactly where people fall on the list?
Jan 25, 2019, 4:22 am
#3611
Used to be guidogh
Join Date: Aug 2012
Programs: FB Ultimate, Hertz Platinum, Star Aliiance Gold
Posts: 364
Applied a GPU on IAH-SCL leaving tomorrow. I am Premier Gold and it is a B-fare.
24 out of 30 seats are currently sold.
J5 JN5 C5 D5 Z5 ZN5 P5 PN2 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X9
PN2 means no GS and full-fare 1K's are standing by for upgrade correct? any chance for me?
24 out of 30 seats are currently sold.
J5 JN5 C5 D5 Z5 ZN5 P5 PN2 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X9
PN2 means no GS and full-fare 1K's are standing by for upgrade correct? any chance for me?
Jan 25, 2019, 5:11 am
#3612
Join Date: Nov 2012
Programs: BA Bronze, United 1K, HH Gold, SPG Platinum, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 3,477
Applied a GPU on IAH-SCL leaving tomorrow. I am Premier Gold and it is a B-fare.
24 out of 30 seats are currently sold.
J5 JN5 C5 D5 Z5 ZN5 P5 PN2 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X9
PN2 means no GS and full-fare 1K's are standing by for upgrade correct? any chance for me?
24 out of 30 seats are currently sold.
J5 JN5 C5 D5 Z5 ZN5 P5 PN2 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X9
PN2 means no GS and full-fare 1K's are standing by for upgrade correct? any chance for me?
That being said, your chances increased a little these past few days as three days ago it was sold 28/30. Four Business passengers decided not to take that flight. Good luck!
Jan 25, 2019, 8:02 am
#3613
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,338
StuckInITH got it correct; for clarity, I'd just add that even on a full fare, 1K members would be waitlisted for PZ, not PN, when using a GPU. Good luck!
Jan 25, 2019, 8:14 am
#3614
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 57
I wouldn't get my hopes up, but there's a chance. The booked counts are encouraging, but PN0 and PZ0 crucially mean that there could be many waitlisted instruments, and the January expiry of G/RPU mean that there could be many waitlisted requests.
It's not that long a flight, and this must be the 767, so you can look forward to the two-pair, currently-best-Y-in-the-fleet seats as a fallback.
It's not that long a flight, and this must be the 767, so you can look forward to the two-pair, currently-best-Y-in-the-fleet seats as a fallback.
Jan 25, 2019, 2:07 pm
#3615
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: LAX
Programs: UA 1K MM; Bonvoy Titanium; most other FF programs...
Posts: 654
Had applied a RPU to LAX-ORD on the 757-200 with flatbeds for Sat, Jan 26th... Buy-up offers fluctuated from $216 days before to $726 late last night. Also # of seats was disappearing, with only 1 seat remaining last evening. Opened app this morning, saw buy-up went back down to $216 with 2 seats remaining, so bit the bullet. Not feeling particularly well, so didn't want to sweat it out at the gate only to have someone else buy-up or snag it with a higher fare class. So now I have 2 RPUs that will die on Jan 31st.
