fumje

As a silver lining, the new AM SFO-SIN seems to be surprisingly liberal with R space. But indeed. (Especially if it means they just can't support two US-SIN flights per day.)

userjeff

Have my Chances changed with only 3 days to go? 20/36 sold. Looks like Y is over sold.

StuckinITH

Welcome to FlyerTalk and especially to the United threads!

Your chances are increasing slightly since it seems that 3 passengers decided not to fly: it's showing 35 out of 40 sold. But you still have to worry about Global Service passengers and about 1Ks with a higher fare. And all those passengers and you have to hope that nobody gets a TOD that they cannot refuse.

Kacee

And last minute sales.

jsloan

I agree; Y is oversold, and I'd say your chances look decent at this point. They're currently selling J6 C5 D0 Y1 B1 M1 E0. That means they're likely oversold by 10 in Y, and are willing to oversell by one more. That's good for you, because the seats that they're blocking from inventory can't be sold as upgrades during check-in. As things currently sit, there will be at least 10 upgrades.

You should be first in line out of the Gold passengers, so the question is simply how many GS, 1K, and Platinum passengers are ahead of you with waitlisted instruments. There's no way to know that, but I certainly like your chances better today than I did when you first posted.

tstauck

I cleared that flight back in April, Silver at the time, K fare, mileage upgrade. It cleared 2 hours before the flight.

Good luck!

- Tom

YogiORD

SirDormammu

tstauck

I recall it was about the same. In fact, I didn't even waitlist until about 5 days out because my return was already upgraded (R space at booking), so I figured I would suck it up and do economy out and First coming back. But realizing the miles would be refunded if I didn't clear, I would have nothing to lose.

It went from about 15 available five days out to 8 one day out, and then cleared at two hours. I was walking by the UC in LAX on my way to the boarding area when I noticed it cleared, so swung in there quick to start taking advantage of the perks lol!

userjeff

Happy to hear this!

Kacee

Not sure that's the right conclusion. Looks to me like a potential oversale. Which is your best scenario for an upgrade, since it will result in J pax moved to F.

YogiORD

Kacee

I would call it a "potential" oversale based on the economy seatmap (only E+ open) and the inventory, specifically J9 Y4 W0. Plus, flight status on the App now says J booked 32/40 with 1 blocked. The rapid drop in booked J (from 38 this morning to 32 now) is obviously a positive sign for you.

jsloan

Anything less than Y9 indicates tight inventory, not "wide open." The numbers that you quoted aren't additive -- it means that they're willing to sell 8 seats in Y; of those, they'd sell up to 7 in B and up to 6 in H. So, that's 8 total, not 8+7+6=21.

That doesn't necessarily mean it's oversold -- Kacee's remark that 1 seat is blocked in J usually does though -- but it's a fair indication that it might be. If UA believes that they are more likely to get people to pay walk-up Y prices than walk-up J prices, they'll continue to sell Y inventory, knowing that each additional sale will likely cause one more upgrade -- but figuring that seat would otherwise go empty. So, they might offer Y8 even if there are no available seats in Y, figuring that they'll get some cancellations, missed connections, or no-shows... or have to upgrade some people.

Kacee

The flight currently shows Y4. J9 Y4 W0 (and no empty E- seats) says potential oversale to me. J blocked 1 is just confirmation.