Last edit by: WineCountryUA
This is an archive thread, the active thread is
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Related thread - Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Related thread - Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
#3033
Join Date: Nov 2012
Programs: BA Bronze, United 1K, HH Gold, SPG Platinum, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 3,477
Hey folks,
would like to know now chance of getting an upgrade to Polaris on UA881 ORD-NRT for Sat Aug 25.
Applied GPU for Economy booked under H class. 1K status.
Expert view shows J9 JN9 P0 R0 RN0
United is showing 38 out of 40sold, but seat map shows 9 available.
First class is wide open 0 out of 8 booked, although 1 will go to the pilot.
Any thoughts from you gurus if I should keep hopes alive, especially for a Sat Narita flight.
Cheers
would like to know now chance of getting an upgrade to Polaris on UA881 ORD-NRT for Sat Aug 25.
Applied GPU for Economy booked under H class. 1K status.
Expert view shows J9 JN9 P0 R0 RN0
United is showing 38 out of 40sold, but seat map shows 9 available.
First class is wide open 0 out of 8 booked, although 1 will go to the pilot.
Any thoughts from you gurus if I should keep hopes alive, especially for a Sat Narita flight.
Cheers
Your chances are increasing slightly since it seems that 3 passengers decided not to fly: it's showing 35 out of 40 sold. But you still have to worry about Global Service passengers and about 1Ks with a higher fare. And all those passengers and you have to hope that nobody gets a TOD that they cannot refuse.
#3034
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,452
#3035
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,400
You should be first in line out of the Gold passengers, so the question is simply how many GS, 1K, and Platinum passengers are ahead of you with waitlisted instruments. There's no way to know that, but I certainly like your chances better today than I did when you first posted.
#3036
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: SBA
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, Marriott Gold, IHG Plat, Hertz PC
Posts: 941
Hello fellow FT users,
Please share some thoughts on my mileage plus upgrade going through (general tier member, K classed booked):
UA37, departing LAX to SIN on August 27th. 33/48 United Business Polaris booked.
Opened fares: J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P9, and PN, R, RN, IN, I all zero.
I’ve been on the waitlist for over a month.
Please share some thoughts on my mileage plus upgrade going through (general tier member, K classed booked):
UA37, departing LAX to SIN on August 27th. 33/48 United Business Polaris booked.
Opened fares: J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P9, and PN, R, RN, IN, I all zero.
I’ve been on the waitlist for over a month.
Good luck!
- Tom
#3037
Join Date: Aug 2018
Programs: MileagePlus
Posts: 6
Welcome to FlyerTalk and especially to the United threads!
Your chances are increasing slightly since it seems that 3 passengers decided not to fly: it's showing 35 out of 40 sold. But you still have to worry about Global Service passengers and about 1Ks with a higher fare. And all those passengers and you have to hope that nobody gets a TOD that they cannot refuse.
Your chances are increasing slightly since it seems that 3 passengers decided not to fly: it's showing 35 out of 40 sold. But you still have to worry about Global Service passengers and about 1Ks with a higher fare. And all those passengers and you have to hope that nobody gets a TOD that they cannot refuse.
#3038
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 3
Good to hear, do you recall the availability leading up to the flight? (15 seats left with five more days to go, crossing my fingers).
#3039
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: SBA
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, Marriott Gold, IHG Plat, Hertz PC
Posts: 941
It went from about 15 available five days out to 8 one day out, and then cleared at two hours. I was walking by the UC in LAX on my way to the boarding area when I noticed it cleared, so swung in there quick to start taking advantage of the perks lol!
#3040
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 11
I agree; Y is oversold, and I'd say your chances look decent at this point. They're currently selling J6 C5 D0 Y1 B1 M1 E0. That means they're likely oversold by 10 in Y, and are willing to oversell by one more. That's good for you, because the seats that they're blocking from inventory can't be sold as upgrades during check-in. As things currently sit, there will be at least 10 upgrades.
You should be first in line out of the Gold passengers, so the question is simply how many GS, 1K, and Platinum passengers are ahead of you with waitlisted instruments. There's no way to know that, but I certainly like your chances better today than I did when you first posted.
You should be first in line out of the Gold passengers, so the question is simply how many GS, 1K, and Platinum passengers are ahead of you with waitlisted instruments. There's no way to know that, but I certainly like your chances better today than I did when you first posted.
#3041
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,452
#3042
Join Date: Aug 2018
Programs: MileagePlus
Posts: 6
Hello Kacee, help me understand why Y seems to be oversold for UA881 on Saturday. I may not be readin this correctly. Appreciate a quick explanation. Thanks
#3043
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,452
I would call it a "potential" oversale based on the economy seatmap (only E+ open) and the inventory, specifically J9 Y4 W0. Plus, flight status on the App now says J booked 32/40 with 1 blocked. The rapid drop in booked J (from 38 this morning to 32 now) is obviously a positive sign for you.
#3044
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,400
That doesn't necessarily mean it's oversold -- Kacee's remark that 1 seat is blocked in J usually does though -- but it's a fair indication that it might be. If UA believes that they are more likely to get people to pay walk-up Y prices than walk-up J prices, they'll continue to sell Y inventory, knowing that each additional sale will likely cause one more upgrade -- but figuring that seat would otherwise go empty. So, they might offer Y8 even if there are no available seats in Y, figuring that they'll get some cancellations, missed connections, or no-shows... or have to upgrade some people.
#3045
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,452
The flight currently shows Y4. J9 Y4 W0 (and no empty E- seats) says potential oversale to me. J blocked 1 is just confirmation.