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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Aug 2, 19, 11:08 am
  #1471  
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Under half-empty at 9 days out and I think you will clear. Australia in August is not all that popular.
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Old Aug 2, 19, 11:19 am
  #1472  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
You're correct that they wouldn't show up on the waitlist yet. However, 22/48, nine days prior to departure, would give you a good chance, IMO. Obviously, it'd be better if you were higher status, and there are no guarantees, but if the sell 15 more seats, and you're tenth on the waitlist, you'd still clear.

The biggest concern would be if there were a flight cancellation and UA had to route a bunch of new passengers onto that flight. That's part of the nature of waitlisting, though. :/
Originally Posted by findark View Post
Under half-empty at 9 days out and I think you will clear. Australia in August is not all that popular.
Okay thanks -- think I will roll the dice. Good news is the fare class is higher so the co-pay is lower (though won't realize the full difference due to the $100 I have to pay to redeposit the MUA from the initial flight since it had already cleared LAX - SYD)
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Old Aug 3, 19, 1:55 am
  #1473  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
Sorry about that. . I'm not sure how I got the date wrong, but I clearly did. You're correct; your actual flight is booked 28/48. Unfortunately, as you suspected, that likely doesn't change your outlook much; maybe you have a 10% chance to clear instead of 5%.

As for your spot on the waitlist: within the set of people waitlisted for PN class, it's going to be prioritized by status and then fare class. You're ahead of everyone on a 1K instrument, but you're behind anyone with higher status on a GS instrument, even if they booked after you did.

You can get a rough idea of how confident UA is that they can sell the seats by looking at inventory. Your outbound flight is J9 (JN9) C9 D3 Z0, meaning that they don't think they will have to discount very much in order to sell the tickets (there's no Z or P inventory). Before they would open upgrade space, they'd first open Z, ZN, and P space. JN and ZN are both everyday award classes, so I'll sometimes leave them out for simplicity.

Your return flight is in slightly better shape, at J9 C9 D9 Z0, and Thursday is going to be a better day to try to upgrade than Saturday. This far from departure, though, having more than half the cabin full isn't a great sign. Most business class tickets are purchased within 3 weeks of departure.
My return flight (15 AUG UA2) cleared yesterday (right about 2 weeks out)!!! Interestingly, it seems like I was the only one who got upgraded at that time, because when I checked this morning, the number of available seats had only dropped by one (to 14 seats).

As for my departure flight (3 AUG UA1), no upgrade yet. The inventory at 24 hours out is J2 JN2 C2 D0 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0. I think this means there are four business class seats left? (The seat map shows 3, so I'm a little confused.) Edit: Just checked the seat map again, it's actually 2 seats left, so I guess the "2" in "J2" and "C2" are referring to the same two seats, not four seats.

Thoughts on my odds of getting a last-minute upgrade? With only 2 seats, it would definitely be a pleasant surprise.

Side question, does checking in to your flight the day before have any impact on chance of upgrade?
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Last edited by danthflyer; Aug 3, 19 at 2:08 am
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Old Aug 3, 19, 6:23 am
  #1474  
 
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Originally Posted by danthflyer View Post
My return flight (15 AUG UA2) cleared yesterday (right about 2 weeks out)!!! Interestingly, it seems like I was the only one who got upgraded at that time, because when I checked this morning, the number of available seats had only dropped by one (to 14 seats).

As for my departure flight (3 AUG UA1), no upgrade yet. The inventory at 24 hours out is J2 JN2 C2 D0 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0. I think this means there are four business class seats left? (The seat map shows 3, so I'm a little confused.) Edit: Just checked the seat map again, it's actually 2 seats left, so I guess the "2" in "J2" and "C2" are referring to the same two seats, not four seats.

Thoughts on my odds of getting a last-minute upgrade? With only 2 seats, it would definitely be a pleasant surprise.

Side question, does checking in to your flight the day before have any impact on chance of upgrade?
Yes, J2 and C2 refer to the same 2 seats.

You should check-in as early as you can. It's even better if you have a connecting flight as then you can check earlier. Time of check-in helps to get ahead of passengers of your same status that purchased the same fare. Edit: I missed the part that you were waiting for PN but you never know that there are other 1Ks that have generous friends.......

I don't wish that anybody would miss their flight but that would increase your chances. Good luck!
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Last edited by StuckinITH; Aug 3, 19 at 6:28 am Reason: Missed that it's waitlisting for PN
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Old Aug 3, 19, 6:35 am
  #1475  
 
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Originally Posted by StuckinITH View Post
Yes, J2 and C2 refer to the same 2 seats.

Time of check-in helps to get ahead of passengers of your same status that purchased the same fare.
My colleague and I had the same status and fare class. He purchased his ticket and applied his GPU earlier than I did. But I checked in earlier than he did. Actually, his name was ahead of me on the upgrade standby list. So, this is just one data point for disputing this check-in time mystery.
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Old Aug 3, 19, 9:14 am
  #1476  
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Trying to get my parents from EWR-HNL sometime in January or February. Very flexible on dates.

Any ideas around the chances of RPU/GPU (not sure which one I would need) space opening on this route? And if space does typically open, any ideas on approximately how far out?

Apologies in advance if this is the wrong thread or an extremely commonly asked question, I'm not too familiar with the UA forum.
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Old Aug 3, 19, 10:26 am
  #1477  
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Originally Posted by Kmxu View Post

My colleague and I had the same status and fare class. He purchased his ticket and applied his GPU earlier than I did. But I checked in earlier than he did. Actually, his name was ahead of me on the upgrade standby list. So, this is just one data point for disputing this check-in time mystery.
It's still a listed priority criterion, but it's now dropped behind several others (credit card, corporate preferred) from #3 to #5 on the list.

There's also reason to believe the system doesn't actually apply the rules as published.
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Old Aug 3, 19, 10:33 am
  #1478  
 
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Originally Posted by Kmxu View Post
My colleague and I had the same status and fare class. He purchased his ticket and applied his GPU earlier than I did. But I checked in earlier than he did. Actually, his name was ahead of me on the upgrade standby list. So, this is just one data point for disputing this check-in time mystery.
Sad that my wife and I did not think of testing this for our return from PVG when we only got upgraded at T-23 after we had checked in. She had purchased her ticket and applied her GPU earlier than I did. But she did check in earlier than I did as she did both of our check-ins. We will have to remember to try this next time that we are in the situation that we did not get upgraded until after check-in.

Did any of you get finally upgraded?
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Old Aug 3, 19, 10:53 am
  #1479  
 
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Originally Posted by StuckinITH View Post
Sad that my wife and I did not think of testing this for our return from PVG when we only got upgraded at T-23 after we had checked in. She had purchased her ticket and applied her GPU earlier than I did. But she did check in earlier than I did as she did both of our check-ins. We will have to remember to try this next time that we are in the situation that we did not get upgraded until after check-in.

Did any of you get finally upgraded?
Yes. Both of us got the last seats. We were Nos. 1 and 2 on the upgrade standby list. I had to call 1K line when I saw PZ2 at T-75 min from United Club at Hong Kong. Agent was not too happy, but did it for both of us. My colleague got the better of the two seats.
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Old Aug 3, 19, 12:11 pm
  #1480  
 
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Originally Posted by Kmxu View Post
Yes. Both of us got the last seats. We were Nos. 1 and 2 on the upgrade standby list. I had to call 1K line when I saw PZ2 at T-75 min from United Club at Hong Kong. Agent was not too happy, but did it for both of us. My colleague got the better of the two seats.
Funny that in our case when we got upgraded at T-23 on a Polarized 772 there were three passengers in the upgrade list: my wife was #1 , I was #2 and passenger AAA was #3 . We all got upgraded at the same time and it seems that it went with alphabetic order and assigning passengers only to window seats: passenger AAA got 4A, my wife with my same last name start but first name starting with B got 8A, I got 11L. This is the much better seat. But I gave it up to sit next to my wife in the middle seats in Row 5. If she had been given 4A she would have kept it (and I could have kept 11L) but 8A would have had more traffic.

Unrelated question: Were there newspapers in the HKG club?

Last edited by StuckinITH; Aug 3, 19 at 12:21 pm Reason: I misspelled "were"
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Old Aug 3, 19, 5:08 pm
  #1481  
 
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Originally Posted by danthflyer View Post
My return flight (15 AUG UA2) cleared yesterday (right about 2 weeks out)!!! Interestingly, it seems like I was the only one who got upgraded at that time, because when I checked this morning, the number of available seats had only dropped by one (to 14 seats).

As for my departure flight (3 AUG UA1), no upgrade yet. The inventory at 24 hours out is J2 JN2 C2 D0 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0. I think this means there are four business class seats left? (The seat map shows 3, so I'm a little confused.) Edit: Just checked the seat map again, it's actually 2 seats left, so I guess the "2" in "J2" and "C2" are referring to the same two seats, not four seats.

Thoughts on my odds of getting a last-minute upgrade? With only 2 seats, it would definitely be a pleasant surprise.

Side question, does checking in to your flight the day before have any impact on chance of upgrade?
Follow-up: just checked the upgrade list for UA1. Only one seat left now, and I'm one the second page (10 names per page). So, I wasn't even close. Anyway, happy I'll be flying business on my return flight and First on my connections .

Would I be able to get lounge access if I come into SFO flying First but depart SFO on Economy?
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Old Aug 3, 19, 5:39 pm
  #1482  
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Originally Posted by danthflyer View Post
Would I be able to get lounge access if I come into SFO flying First but depart SFO on Economy?
On the oubtound or return? Flying SIN-SFO-XXX, yes, you'll be flying Polaris business class (not first) SIN-SFO, and that will get you into the Polaris lounge at SFO. Flying XXX-SFO-SIN, with XXX-SFO in domestic F and SFO-SIN in Y, no.
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Old Aug 3, 19, 6:34 pm
  #1483  
 
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Originally Posted by danthflyer View Post

Would I be able to get lounge access if I come into SFO flying First but depart SFO on Economy?
On the outbound, it's no to Polaris Lounge but yes to UCs. Just because as a 1K you are *G and you get access to the UCs for international flights.
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Old Aug 3, 19, 8:34 pm
  #1484  
 
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Originally Posted by danthflyer View Post
Follow-up: just checked the upgrade list for UA1. Only one seat left now, and I'm one the second page (10 names per page). So, I wasn't even close. Anyway, happy I'll be flying business on my return flight and First on my connections .

Would I be able to get lounge access if I come into SFO flying First but depart SFO on Economy?
I have no idea how this happened but I got upgraded on UA1 after all!!! Is that upgrade list list not by priority? I have no idea how I went from 15 to the front of the line, but what an amazing surprise
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Old Aug 3, 19, 8:39 pm
  #1485  
 
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Originally Posted by danthflyer View Post
I have no idea how this happened but I got upgraded on UA1 after all!!! Is that upgrade list list not by priority? I have no idea how I went from 15 to the front of the line, but what an amazing surprise
It must be because they opened a PN. Maybe you were on the upgrade list as a 1K and did not show that the GPU was coming from a GS.

So, you have access to the Polaris Lounge.
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