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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Sep 5, 19, 12:41 pm   -   Wikipost
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Old Jul 26, 19, 12:12 am
  #1441  
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
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Programs: UA PLT 1MM, Hyatt Discoverist, HHonors Gold, Marriott Lifetime Gold, ClubCarlson Gold, IHG Plat Amb
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Originally Posted by Jamester View Post
Generally speaking, is SFO-MUC much easier to clear upgrade than SFO-FRA (as a 1K MM and a 2P companion using GPUs)? We're talking something like Dec 21 (the last weekend before Christmas). How about FRA-SFO or MUC-SFO on Dec 31 (which I could also select something like AMS-IAH-SFO or LHR-SFO)? Any other creative routing ideas with easier chance to upgrade (without making more than 1-2 stops that is)? Background: ultimate destination is ZRH - but I can get intra-European tickets separately for cheap. I think I'm stuck with UA metal if I'm using GPUs (unless I want to gamble with LH availability).

I understand there are TONS of factors involved, just looking for some kind of generalization, and I understand SFO-FRA-SFO are the only ones with real Polaris seats). Much thanks!
A follow up to my post on Jul 21 5:11pm above. Ended up seeing SFO-MUC on LH A380 (Z fare) on Dec 21 and then LHR-SFO on UA B772 (R fare, which is PremiumPlus) on Dec 31...for about USD 3100rt - not sure if that's a bad deal or not, given the holidays (but snagged a couple anyway). And now waitlisted on upgrade with GPUs on the LHR-SFO portion (which also has a USD 100 co-pay).

Ignoring the (hopefully) more affordable MUC-ZRH and ZRH/GVA-LHR intra-European tickets, how do folks think about the chance of a 1K MM & 2P companion (on the same PNR) clearing LHR-SFO from PremPlus to Biz, on a New Year's Eve? Current stats: J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z8 ZN8 P4 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O9 ON9 A9 R1 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0. Seat map indicates 32 (real Polaris) seats (out of 49 total) unassigned. I know it's still more than 5 months out and (supposedly) upgrading from R class to Biz should have a much better chance of clearing - I read that somewhere.

Or should I split the PNR (in case my 2P companion may be 'dragging me down' on the waitlist)? At least if one of us has to stay back, Premium Plus doesn't sound bad.

Another data point: I was offered instant upgrade (upon completion of booking) on LHR-SFO for $1050 each (but still counting on using my GPUs that exp in Jan 2020).

Thx as always for your input!

Last edited by Jamester; Jul 26, 19 at 12:25 am Reason: Added more facts.
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Old Jul 26, 19, 5:03 am
  #1442  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
I miss the future flight status tool already.
Me too! I was using it so often to assess the upgrade chances of our fellow FTers.
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Old Jul 26, 19, 7:57 am
  #1443  
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Originally Posted by Jamester View Post
Ended up seeing SFO-MUC on LH A380 (Z fare) on Dec 21 and then LHR-SFO on UA B772 (R fare, which is PremiumPlus) on Dec 31...for about USD 3100rt - not sure if that's a bad deal or not,
There are round-trip business class fares on AC/UA/LH into TXL, FRA, ZRH, etc. ranging from $2600-3400 on those dates. You can OJ those itineraries for the same fare. You can also RT into LHR for $2550 on AC. Do you use googleflights?
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Old Jul 26, 19, 8:50 am
  #1444  
 
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Red face

Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
There are round-trip business class fares on AC/UA/LH into TXL, FRA, ZRH, etc. ranging from $2600-3400 on those dates. You can OJ those itineraries for the same fare. You can also RT into LHR for $2550 on AC. Do you use googleflights?
I sure did Kacee - the AC flight (SFO-FRA-ZRH) passes through Toronto (and like a 6-7 hour layover) - and saw another SFO-FRA-ZRH on UA/LH (tickets sold by LH) and ZRH-SFO on LX - all Biz for $3409+tax. Sounds like I'm still better off - found my fare on united.com (so at least getting the 11x bonus miles). If anyone can speak for the LHR-SFO upgrade chance above, that would be awesome. Happy Friday & thanks again!
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Old Jul 26, 19, 11:00 am
  #1445  
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Originally Posted by Jamester View Post
If anyone can speak for the LHR-SFO upgrade chance above, that would be awesome. Happy Friday & thanks again!
NYE is generally a good day for upgrades. But five months out it's really impossible to make a meaningful prediction on any specific flight. So it would certainly be my preference to purchase confirmed business class for $200 more. The fares quoted above can be purchased on the UA website via link from googleflights.
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Old Jul 28, 19, 4:36 pm
  #1446  
 
Join Date: May 2019
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posted previously

already posted but wondering if odds have improved still J9 ,going old-sfo 2 people gpu supported upgrade (also wondering do gpus have higher priority than rpus)we have no status and its the 6:45 am flight
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Old Jul 28, 19, 7:11 pm
  #1447  
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Originally Posted by united 1k flyer View Post
already posted but wondering if odds have improved still J9 ,going old-sfo 2 people gpu supported upgrade (also wondering do gpus have higher priority than rpus)we have no status and its the 6:45 am flight
GPUs and RPUs have the same priority. The priority order is Global Services members, then all instruments, prioritized by status.

The flight is J9 C3 D0, and there appear to be ten unassigned seats in the cabin. Your odds aren't getting better; if anything, they're getting worse, although they were minuscule to begin with. If you really have no status (despite your username), it probably wouldn't even matter if they stopped selling tickets, because you probably wouldn't be in the top ten of the upgrade list.

I know it's not the answer you were hoping for, but they really will sell those seats, either to people flying ORD-SFO, or to people flying CDG-ORD-SFO or ORD-SFO-SIN or whatnot. If they have any left over, they will sell them at check-in.

ETA: Your odds might be better on the 777 the night before -- but unfortunately, I don't think that's going to matter. That flight is nearly full in economy, so the chance that you will have the opportunity to change to it is very small -- and they will already have upgraded some passengers by that point anyway.
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Old Jul 28, 19, 8:04 pm
  #1448  
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
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Deleted. Friend said he's use his GPUs for us so my question is moot.

Last edited by smiles33; Jul 28, 19 at 8:35 pm
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Old Jul 28, 19, 8:10 pm
  #1449  
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Originally Posted by smiles33 View Post
He had said he could call Global Services to ask them to plan it out.
As GS, your friend can book awards in ways mere mortals cannot.

Originally Posted by smiles33 View Post
We're looking at a Wed night departure (UA 1) and could return Saturday, Sunday, or Monday (UA 28). What would you do? Wait-list on UA or go with Singapore Air and decline our friend's generous offer?
I can't advise you on the relationship question, but I personally would never risk 16 hours in Y on a UA 789.
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Old Jul 28, 19, 8:36 pm
  #1450  
 
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Oh, thanks for the quick reply. I just deleted my post because he wrote to me that he has several "Global upgrades" to use and is going to call Global Services for us. So I'll just wait and see what he can come up with!
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Old Jul 28, 19, 11:05 pm
  #1451  
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Originally Posted by smiles33 View Post
Oh, thanks for the quick reply. I just deleted my post because he wrote to me that he has several "Global upgrades" to use and is going to call Global Services for us. So I'll just wait and see what he can come up with!
GS can upgrade award tix. You'll still need PN inventory.
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Old Jul 29, 19, 11:29 am
  #1452  
 
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I used miles+copay for ICN-SFO, it was PZ9, IN6. After I upgraded, it is now PZ9, IN5. Coincidence that IN became 5, and PZ was actually >9?
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Old Jul 29, 19, 11:54 am
  #1453  
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Originally Posted by gusd View Post
I used miles+copay for ICN-SFO, it was PZ9, IN6. After I upgraded, it is now PZ9, IN5. Coincidence that IN became 5, and PZ was actually >9?
No coincidence that IN became 5 -- taking an upgrade seat often reduces award availability, as does the reverse. And, yes, they were probably willing to open more than 9 PZ seats on that flight.
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Old Jul 29, 19, 3:02 pm
  #1454  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
GS can upgrade award tix. You'll still need PN inventory.
This probably been asked and answered but is a pax flying on an GS award ticket (not with GS pax) cpu eligible? Now on the return the pax is flying with me and I understand we are then both cpu eligible.

Last edited by nomad420; Jul 29, 19 at 3:10 pm
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Old Jul 31, 19, 6:08 pm
  #1455  
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
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Anyone have experience with ewr to dub route?

UA gold status on R fare. MUA reward. Thoughts?

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