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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Jul 15, 19, 12:53 pm
  #1366  
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Houston, TX
Programs: CO Gold
Posts: 60
Originally Posted by fumje View Post
From the inventory flight 1 is clearly better. What are the loads (check with cablepick.net/united), and what are the days of week?
Thanks for the tips on checking the loads.

Flight 1: business : 50 Booked: 32
Flight 2: business : 50 Booked: 39

I guess flight 1 it is then!
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Old Jul 15, 19, 2:00 pm
  #1367  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Programs: AAdvantage Executive Platinum
Posts: 433
How about UA240 EWR-LAX this Wednesday?
At about T-40 there are 8 unsold J seats, and Iím waitlisting an RPU as a Plat.

My feeling is the chances are slim, but is this more because of last minute J sales, or because of >8 before me on the list?
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Old Jul 15, 19, 2:10 pm
  #1368  
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Originally Posted by mcrw00 View Post
My feeling is the chances are slim, but is this more because of last minute J sales, or because of >8 before me on the list?
Both. You probably won't be in the top 8, and they'll sell most / all of those seats between now and departure, including possibly as TODs at check-in.
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Old Jul 15, 19, 2:37 pm
  #1369  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: San Francisco
Programs: UA GS, UA 1MM, Hilton Lifetime Gold, Marriott Gold, Hertz Gold
Posts: 1,989
Originally Posted by mcrw00 View Post
How about UA240 EWR-LAX this Wednesday?
At about T-40 there are 8 unsold J seats, and Iím waitlisting an RPU as a Plat.

My feeling is the chances are slim, but is this more because of last minute J sales, or because of >8 before me on the list?
I had trouble clearing upgrades on this flight as a 1K all the time, more so out of SFO. But it is a Wed flight (less elites) and 8 open at T40 so that is not bad. JMHO (and I'm a pessimist) I would still give slightly better than 50% chance. Let's see what others say.
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Old Jul 15, 19, 2:39 pm
  #1370  
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Originally Posted by nomad420 View Post
I had trouble clearing upgrades on this flight as a 1K all the time, more so out of SFO. But it is a Wed flight (less elites) and 8 open at T40 so that is not bad. JMHO (and I'm a pessimist) I would still give slightly better than 50% chance. Let's see what others say.
A 1K might have a 50% chance. A Plat? 5% at best.

The 781 is a big plane. There are lots of potential customers for a $249 TOD upgrade.
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Old Jul 15, 19, 3:16 pm
  #1371  
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Programs: AMEX Centurion, UA Gold, Stariott Plat., HH Gold, National EE, Hertz PC
Posts: 247
UA565 YYZ-SFO literally cleared 5 minutes before take off. They were already in the process closing doors and I was sitting in 7C when I refreshed my UA app and it showed upgrade cleared for F. Asked an agent to move seats but she just told me 'I'll get back to you', deplaned and never saw her again. FA's told me to move up front instead.
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Old Jul 15, 19, 4:39 pm
  #1372  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
A 1K might have a 50% chance. A Plat? 5% at best.

The 781 is a big plane. There are lots of potential customers for a $249 TOD upgrade.
Geezzz are they (TOD's) that low now??? Haven't got a TOD offer in while. Yeah it is tough, I threw instruments at EVERY flight I took last year so sadly you are probably correct.
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Old Jul 15, 19, 4:50 pm
  #1373  
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Originally Posted by nomad420 View Post
Geezzz are they (TOD's) that low now???
One person's low is another person's unbelievably expensive. I can fly to Asia on an upgraded W fare for not much more than some people pay for SFO-NYC RT J.

That said, the TODs may be up to $299 now; I feel like they changed the route differential a few months back.
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Old Jul 15, 19, 6:29 pm
  #1374  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
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Posts: 9,963
It's somewhere between $249 and $349; they're not exactly known for precision

Basically a wash against the 30-day P fares once you factor in the benefits of flying a true premium fare.
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Old Jul 16, 19, 12:23 pm
  #1375  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: YVR
Programs: United MP 1K
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I want to do YUL-CDG on Saturday, 31 August, so I have a choice of connection points to try to use my GPU for a TATL upgrade. Which would give me the best chance of a GPU clearing that day: EWR-CDG, IAD-CDG, ORD-CDG, or what?
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Old Jul 17, 19, 10:17 pm
  #1376  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: San Francisco, CA (SFO)
Programs: UA 1K, UA .4 MM, Marriott Gold, Nexus, GE, TSA Pre
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Companion and I are flying SFO-SEA roundtrip next month. The question is, what is the likelihood of clearing on each flight? And is it a waste of a four SWU's if I apply them? (Assuming I'd use them on future, harder-to-clear routes.) I'd rather not burn the SWU if my chances of clearing are good.

Thursday, 8/8/19
UA 800
5:30 PM Departure
B737-900
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN3 PZ0
Booked 4/24

Sunday, 8/11/19
UA 2234
4:25 PM Departure
B737-900
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN5 PZ0
Booked 2/20
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Old Jul 17, 19, 10:26 pm
  #1377  
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Originally Posted by LRMErnst View Post
Thursday, 8/8/19
UA 800
5:30 PM Departure
B737-900
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN3 PZ0
Booked 4/24

Sunday, 8/11/19
UA 2234
4:25 PM Departure
B737-900
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN5 PZ0
Booked 2/20
I think the most we can say is you would have a chance at the CPU, with fare class definitely weighing into the equation. Odds better if you're Q or higher, probably not great if you're S or lower. Applying instruments would certainly enhance the odds. 2 hour flight on a 739 obviously not the best use of a GPU.
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Old Jul 17, 19, 10:29 pm
  #1378  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
I think the most we can say is you would have a chance at the CPU, with fare class definitely weighing into the equation. Odds better if you're Q or higher, probably not great if you're S or lower. Applying instruments would certainly enhance the odds. 2 hour flight on a 739 obviously not the best use of a GPU.
Yeah, flying on a K and V fare, respectively...so not great in either direction.

Given my future travel plans, it's likely that I'll be trying to burn them on SFO-ORD / ORD-SFO. Given that that route is usually futile, I'm inclined to apply them now.
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Old Jul 17, 19, 10:37 pm
  #1379  
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Originally Posted by LRMErnst View Post
it's likely that I'll be trying to burn them on SFO-ORD / ORD-SFO. Given that that route is usually futile
Indeed.
Originally Posted by LRMErnst View Post
I'm inclined to apply them now.
Makes sense.
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Old Jul 17, 19, 11:13 pm
  #1380  
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: LAX/KUL
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Originally Posted by LRMErnst View Post
Companion and I are flying SFO-SEA roundtrip next month. The question is, what is the likelihood of clearing on each flight? And is it a waste of a four SWU's if I apply them? (Assuming I'd use them on future, harder-to-clear routes.) I'd rather not burn the SWU if my chances of clearing are good.

Thursday, 8/8/19
UA 800
5:30 PM Departure
B737-900
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN3 PZ0
Booked 4/24
Are you sure you're on a 739? All 739s have 20 F seats. The 753s have 24 F seats but I don't think I've ever seen one do SFO-SEA.
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