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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Jun 22, 19, 6:13 am   -   Wikipost
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Old May 29, 19, 10:46 am
  #1156  
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
You're mistaken about P. P is a cash inventory bucket available to everyone, not an upgrade bucket. PN is upgrade space for GS.

P9 PN9 indicates (a) there aren't likely any GS members waitlisted, and (b) UA doesn't think they can sell all of the seats. A flight that is P9 PN9 may open PZ space next if the sales numbers continue to lag behind UA's hopes. In general, if you have to waitlist an upgrade, all other things being equal, a flight with a higher PN value is more likely to have PZ open than a flight with a lower (or 0) PN value.
Ah, ok thanks ! So I should just ignore the P number and just look at PN number ? that makes sense as I am seeing P9 PN0 on all the flights I am looking at. thx
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Old May 29, 19, 10:49 am
  #1157  
 
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Originally Posted by simonoaks View Post
Ah, ok thanks ! So I should just ignore the P number and just look at PN number ? that makes sense as I am seeing P9 PN0 on all the flights I am looking at. thx
P9 PN0 is a better sign than P0 PN0, but not as good as P9 PN9. Basically, the fewer zeroes you see, the better, as it indicates UA is feeling increasingly unsure about their ability to sell the seats.
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Old May 29, 19, 10:53 am
  #1158  
 
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Take FLL or MIA to ORD and confirm yourself on 958 on 7/1. It is PZ6.

958 on 6/30 is P9 PN9 so it is a good potential candidate as well.
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Old May 29, 19, 11:58 am
  #1159  
 
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Originally Posted by txaggiemiles View Post
Take FLL or MIA to ORD and confirm yourself on 958 on 7/1. It is PZ6.

958 on 6/30 is P9 PN9 so it is a good potential candidate as well.
Thanks, I did not think about going through ORD anymore (did that in March ) because UA has stopped my PBI to ORD and PBI to IAH routes , so I can only do PBI to EWR (which is why I am going to use all my upgrades up and switch to DL with a status match. I travel all over the country for work, mainly SMF , AUT , PHX , so I can no longer justify using UA with Just one hub (EWR).

That ORD flight on the 1st is 7200 bucks for the two of us, I can get a PZ4 flight on 1st via EWR for 3,635.

I think I will just go for the 29th UA14 - $2,763 for two - that's a good price even if I only end up in P+, I can then view the upgrade as a bonus, just like complimentary ones on domestic flights , I guess

I keep holding out to see of the 9pm on the 29th opens up , as it is a 764 , but I risk losing the UA14 one....the games we play loi
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Old May 29, 19, 12:13 pm
  #1160  
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Originally Posted by MatthewLAX View Post


we are a week away. Iím probably just going to bite the bullet and confirm the upgrade, just to save the wasted time/productivity in constantly checking the space.
UPDATE: in case you care

We've now passed the 1K and Plat windows and still no upgrade. PZ space is gone. Cabin now booked 13/24. Still hoping, but if it doesn't clear overnight I'll apply the RPU tomorrow and hope it still clears...

And I think the lesson for me...it is to take PZ space when it is offered...
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Old May 29, 19, 4:45 pm
  #1161  
 
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Originally Posted by MatthewLAX View Post
UPDATE: in case you care

We've now passed the 1K and Plat windows and still no upgrade. PZ space is gone. Cabin now booked 13/24. Still hoping, but if it doesn't clear overnight I'll apply the RPU tomorrow and hope it still clears...

And I think the lesson for me...it is to take PZ space when it is offered...
Always an interesting game , at least flying to ORD you have a choice, I think I would have waited too, you still have a chance, looks like only 2 seats taken in last 5 days. I always have to go though EWR - I have a 0/ lost count RPU upgrade ration LAX to EWR / EWR to LAX .
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Old May 29, 19, 4:56 pm
  #1162  
 
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Originally Posted by simonoaks View Post
Always an interesting game , at least flying to ORD you have a choice, I think I would have waited too, you still have a chance, looks like only 2 seats taken in last 5 days. I always have to go though EWR - I have a 0/ lost count RPU upgrade ration LAX to EWR / EWR to LAX .
I've had decent luck EWR-LAX, LAX-EWR on Saturdays, as I have some flexibility for flying and my work (co-workers) will sponsor RPU's.

EWR-LAX on 8/31 6pm dinner flight is currently PN8, PZ2, which is one I'm keeping an eye on.
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Old May 29, 19, 5:12 pm
  #1163  
 
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Originally Posted by tstauck View Post
I've had decent luck EWR-LAX, LAX-EWR on Saturdays, as I have some flexibility for flying and my work (co-workers) will sponsor RPU's.

EWR-LAX on 8/31 6pm dinner flight is currently PN8, PZ2, which is one I'm keeping an eye on.
I do not have a schedule that far in advance - I usually fly to meet customers within 2 weeks. I do however track TACL flights like that for my holiday trips back to UK to see family. Thus far , I have only ever booked PZ flights, not had to waitlist before.

I even had a time when there was 25 open seats on a 772 LAX to EWR T-1 hour and still didn't clear lol
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Old Jun 1, 19, 5:05 pm
  #1164  
 
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Hey all, I'm a UA 1K traveling with two non-status family members UA 960 (EWR-FRA) on 6/27 (Thurs). There sadly wasn't any PZ availability that week, so we booked W fares back on 4/3 and immediately applied 3 GPUs to the whole PNR.

Since then I've been pulling fare updates on a weekly basis to try guessing how likely we are to clear; here's a detailed spreadsheet I've been building:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1r8pwZQTgqHXjEe5vVyZxTKVLziyaT5o8e60DXRaEpWQ/preview

(Each "block" is a snapshot in time of UA 960 on same DoW for every week out until our departure, to get an idea of trending.)

The fact that ZN has opened up recently on our 6/27 flight seems to indicate that UA doesn't expect to sell everything, which is raising my hopes a bit.

Since it's looking pretty close (I'm guessing ~40 of the 44 seats up front will be sold), a few questions are brewing in my mind:
  • Since our PNR has 3 people, if UA only releases PZ1 at a time, will we get skipped over in favor of a single-person PNR further down on the list?
  • If our chances are looking slim, I'm thinking of calling the 1K desk to split our PNR early, which gives me personally a better chance of clearing, but pretty much 0% chance of family members clearing. If I do clear this way, I'm thinking of letting my brother discreetly pretend to be me and take my upgraded seat at boarding, and I'll take his seat in the back. (I've read mixed things on this strategy here on FT, and it seems like trying to inform the FAs of what we're doing can have mixed results. So I'm thinking forgiveness-over-permission is the best route.)
  • It sounds like non-CPU flights (like this TATL) will force-split our PNR at checkin, and each person will get a separate PNR while also inheriting my 1K status with the GPUs still intact. Does that mean 2/3 of us might clear?
Whew, that's a lot to think about.
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Old Jun 1, 19, 10:29 pm
  #1165  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
It's possible. That ticket would go off to the rate desk; if they're paying attention, they'd basically do the audit that I was talking about. If they're not, or if they can't figure out what happened to the ticket to get it in its current state, they might just give you the quote for a half-round-trip up-fare to W. (For example, they might assume it was an op-up or something).

So, at a minimum, I'd have the expectation that I'd need to pay the round-trip W fare if I were to call back.

The bigger concern is that some agents seem to get personally offended if they think that you're trying to "cheat" the company, so you may end up with a particularly unhelpful agent.
It's a bit late to follow up on this but while I was slightly nervous until the doors closed on the outbound flight nothing ever happened. Somehow I got Polaris for free even though I attempted to buy up to W and use a GPU.

For the return, I decided not to risk things and used that GPU, which was never taken, to upgrade to Premium Plus, which didn't require me to buy up to a specific economy fare. I consider that a huge win, Polaris one way and PP the other all on a cheap transpac econ fare for a single GPU.

Thanks again for the reassurance.
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Old Jun 2, 19, 10:56 am
  #1166  
 
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MAN - EWR UA 80 on July 7th shows J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P4 PN0 PZ0. Have a GPU applied, 1K status. I think there are 20+ seats available so hoping for the best but the P4 has me a little worried.
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Old Jun 2, 19, 2:31 pm
  #1167  
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Originally Posted by MatthewLAX View Post
UPDATE: in case you care

We've now passed the 1K and Plat windows and still no upgrade. PZ space is gone. Cabin now booked 13/24. Still hoping, but if it doesn't clear overnight I'll apply the RPU tomorrow and hope it still clears...

And I think the lesson for me...it is to take PZ space when it is offered...
Final Update - flight went to 15/24 at T-24 and then all of a sudden the sweep upgraded many...but skipped me! Flight was 22/24 with me #1 on the waitlist. I don't get how that was possible. That many 1Ks on a Friday evening flight? I was on a K-fare and ended up not applying the RPU...

At T-23, two people cancelled or moved flights and I was instantly upgraded. So it worked out in the end, but I wasted too much time checking the space. Should have just appleid the RPU and been done with it. I did enjoy the pesto chicken...

My return, onboard a PMUA 777-200 international, cleared at the window, and ended up leaving with several opens seats in J/F.
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Old Jun 2, 19, 2:40 pm
  #1168  
 
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Originally Posted by MatthewLAX View Post
Final Update - flight went to 15/24 at T-24 and then all of a sudden the sweep upgraded many...but skipped me! Flight was 22/24 with me #1 on the waitlist. I don't get how that was possible. That many 1Ks on a Friday evening flight? I was on a K-fare and ended up not applying the RPU...

At T-23, two people cancelled or moved flights and I was instantly upgraded. So it worked out in the end, but I wasted too much time checking the space. Should have just appleid the RPU and been done with it. I did enjoy the pesto chicken...

My return, onboard a PMUA 777-200 international, cleared at the window, and ended up leaving with several opens seats in J/F.
Well I guess all is well that ends well. I have long come to accept the fact that taking a flight and hoping for a CPU not to get my hopes up no matter what it looks like. I now only occasionally look at the space available and just figure if a get the CPU then great and if not well better luck next time. I also of course try to get the best E+ seat I can grab (usually hobo first exit row). My luck with CPUs even now as a GS has been abysmal.
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Old Jun 3, 19, 12:35 am
  #1169  
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Originally Posted by MatthewLAX View Post
Final Update - flight went to 15/24 at T-24 and then all of a sudden the sweep upgraded many...but skipped me! Flight was 22/24 with me #1 on the waitlist. I don't get how that was possible. That many 1Ks on a Friday evening flight? I was on a K-fare and ended up not applying the RPU...
There are an awful lot of 1Ks out there, plus pax using instruments. I was #14 on a K fare LAX-SFO (738) on a Thursday night two weeks ago.
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Old Jun 3, 19, 9:52 am
  #1170  
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
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Originally Posted by beacon_shovel_probe View Post
Hey all, I'm a UA 1K traveling with two non-status family members UA 960 (EWR-FRA) on 6/27 (Thurs). There sadly wasn't any PZ availability that week, so we booked W fares back on 4/3 and immediately applied 3 GPUs to the whole PNR.

Since then I've been pulling fare updates on a weekly basis to try guessing how likely we are to clear; here's a detailed spreadsheet I've been building:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1r8pwZQTgqHXjEe5vVyZxTKVLziyaT5o8e60DXRaEpWQ/preview

(Each "block" is a snapshot in time of UA 960 on same DoW for every week out until our departure, to get an idea of trending.)

The fact that ZN has opened up recently on our 6/27 flight seems to indicate that UA doesn't expect to sell everything, which is raising my hopes a bit.

Since it's looking pretty close (I'm guessing ~40 of the 44 seats up front will be sold), a few questions are brewing in my mind:
  • Since our PNR has 3 people, if UA only releases PZ1 at a time, will we get skipped over in favor of a single-person PNR further down on the list?
  • If our chances are looking slim, I'm thinking of calling the 1K desk to split our PNR early, which gives me personally a better chance of clearing, but pretty much 0% chance of family members clearing. If I do clear this way, I'm thinking of letting my brother discreetly pretend to be me and take my upgraded seat at boarding, and I'll take his seat in the back. (I've read mixed things on this strategy here on FT, and it seems like trying to inform the FAs of what we're doing can have mixed results. So I'm thinking forgiveness-over-permission is the best route.)
  • It sounds like non-CPU flights (like this TATL) will force-split our PNR at checkin, and each person will get a separate PNR while also inheriting my 1K status with the GPUs still intact. Does that mean 2/3 of us might clear?
Whew, that's a lot to think about.
Interesting Spreadsheet - and I thought I was obsessive when I search PZ space for 29/30 June EWR-LHR , 6-8 times per day lol.
I have not done GPU waitlist before as I just do not book a flight until PZ space opens up (been fine so far for my 4 trips to UK a year). How do you know how many J seats are booked ? Do you just count on the seat map ?

The downside to waiting is that the price is up 250 bucks in 5 days.
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