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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Nov 5, 22, 3:17 am   -   Wikipost
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Old Aug 10, 22, 2:25 pm
  #1021  
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Programs: UA 1K, BA Gold
Posts: 1,951
Just thinking about this some more. I just bought an IAD-IAH round trip about two days before the flight, and both legs upgraded with PP (one at booking, one at T-24), but PZ was available on the first leg and F was only half full on both legs when I bought them, so I pretty much knew the other upgrade would go through, too.

But I am left wondering what behavior UA is trying to incent with these PPs. I bought these particular flights because of route and time, and a desire to not fly a less dependable LCC. But this is unlike the usual situation where I normally plan flights far in advance, and there may be lots of options. So why would I choose a UA flight over another airline when I am booking far in advance with lots of options? Answer: only if it is domestic short haul and has the best time and route and don't care that much about being in F. When I am buying far in advance and have lots of options or it is long haul, upgrade space at booking would influence me, but that is when it is rarely available.

So I am happy to be 1K and throw PPs on short haul flights, but I don't see that they incent me to fly UA over another airline.
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Old Aug 10, 22, 2:58 pm
  #1022  
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Originally Posted by Artpen100 View Post
So I am happy to be 1K and throw PPs on short haul flights, but I don't see that they incent me to fly UA over another airline.
You don't get more PQP unless you requalify for 1K. That's currently either $13,500 or $15k PQP. That's the incentive.

The basic reason airlines offer elite status is to lock you into flying their airline, both in order to use current year benefits, and so you can requalify for next year. PP tick both of those boxes.
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Old Aug 10, 22, 3:43 pm
  #1023  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: San Francisco
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
You don't get more PQP unless you requalify for 1K. That's currently either $13,500 or $15k PQP. That's the incentive.

The basic reason airlines offer elite status is to lock you into flying their airline, both in order to use current year benefits, and so you can requalify for next year. PP tick both of those boxes.
While I agree in theory with this my issue is you IF can't use PPs, and that now seems all too often, the incentive isn't there. I think I ate about 80 at the end of last year and am on track for much worse that that this year. I throw them at every flight I take. I recently didn't clear one on a SF0-EUG flight and that was really a shocker (I know basically no F cabin anyhow)! As you know I was flying AS quite a bit more over the last several years and returned to UA when AS pulled back on service out of the Bay Area. UA again gets me pretty much where I need to be when I need to be there, end of story. PPs are if anything are a frustrating distraction to me but I must admit I at times like playing the game....LOL.
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Old Aug 10, 22, 4:30 pm
  #1024  
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Originally Posted by nomad420 View Post
While I agree in theory with this my issue is you IF can't use PPs, and that now seems all too often, the incentive isn't there. I think I ate about 80 at the end of last year and am on track for much worse that that this year. I throw them at every flight I take. I recently didn't clear one on a SF0-EUG flight and that was really a shocker (I know basically no F cabin anyhow)! As you know I was flying AS quite a bit more over the last several years and returned to UA when AS pulled back on service out of the Bay Area. UA again gets me pretty much where I need to be when I need to be there, end of story. PPs are if anything are a frustrating distraction to me but I must admit I at times like playing the game....LOL.
Well, whether the incentive actually works is a different question

If I were intent on using my PP for long-haul, I'd find them worthless.
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Old Aug 12, 22, 7:39 am
  #1025  
 
Join Date: Apr 2022
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Originally Posted by cczzll View Post
Yes, asking about PP to Business on EWR > LAX for myself only. (And, perhaps, my husband if I bump him into a PP seat.) My flight from EWR > LAX > NRT was purchased as PP, hence it being an R fare. Originally, my husband was on another EWR > LAX flight but decided it was better if we left for the airport together. Hence the different fare but same flight. I purchased PP for myself to better up my odds of the +P clearing for LAX > NRT at the very least. It'd be nice to be in Business/Polaris that entire day, though, considering I was bumped from a 13hr nonstop to 20 hrs of travel and have to pick up pets from the kennel in Tokyo the day I land. I tend to stay up all night before flights to sleep on planes and adjust to Japan time.

I'll call at check in for my husband to get in E+. He is 6'6", so E+ really helps him. He's just too cheap to spring for expensive seats since he doesn't fly often!! (While I do for work).
An update on this.

Plus Point upgrade for me for EWR to LAX from R into Fauxlaris cleared a few days before the flight. Put in a mileage upgrade request for my husband from R at that time; it miraculously cleared right before boarding. We didnt get to sit by each other, as the person next to him didnt want to move to my single seat in 11 L but glad it cleared all the same.
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Old Aug 15, 22, 2:53 pm
  #1026  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
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Wondering about my chances: I'm booked in W for LHR-SFO UA 939 on 9/11, Plus Points upgrade by a friend, so I have no status. I'm seeing 18 open seats in J with a little less than a month to go. Sounds like a lot of open seats, but I don't know how busy this route gets closer to departure or how many upgrade requests, considering I'm probably at the bottom in priority. Chances of clearing?
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Old Aug 15, 22, 3:12 pm
  #1027  
 
Join Date: Nov 2020
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32% is the estimated chance to clear.
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Old Aug 15, 22, 3:21 pm
  #1028  
 
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Originally Posted by erics2356 View Post
Wondering about my chances: I'm booked in W for LHR-SFO UA 939 on 9/11, Plus Points upgrade by a friend, so I have no status. I'm seeing 18 open seats in J with a little less than a month to go. Sounds like a lot of open seats, but I don't know how busy this route gets closer to departure or how many upgrade requests, considering I'm probably at the bottom in priority. Chances of clearing?
The flight is J9CDZP0 which is awful for you. You will be very far down the upgrade list given the seat map I'm seeing (all but 1 PremPlus assigned right now) and a ton of E+ assigned. I think your chances are super low right now. Always a chance though up until the door closes and the plane is dispatched from the gate.

-RM
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Old Aug 15, 22, 3:42 pm
  #1029  
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Originally Posted by erics2356 View Post
Wondering about my chances: I'm booked in W for LHR-SFO UA 939 on 9/11, Plus Points upgrade by a friend, so I have no status. I'm seeing 18 open seats in J with a little less than a month to go. Sounds like a lot of open seats, but I don't know how busy this route gets closer to departure or how many upgrade requests, considering I'm probably at the bottom in priority. Chances of clearing?
Low. Very low. Don't expect it and enjoy it if it does.

David
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Old Aug 15, 22, 3:45 pm
  #1030  
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Originally Posted by erics2356 View Post
Wondering about my chances: I'm booked in W for LHR-SFO UA 939 on 9/11, Plus Points upgrade by a friend, so I have no status. I'm seeing 18 open seats in J with a little less than a month to go. Sounds like a lot of open seats, but I don't know how busy this route gets closer to departure or how many upgrade requests, considering I'm probably at the bottom in priority. Chances of clearing?
It's J14 O1 and there are at least 7 people above you on the upgrade list (I can't deduce your actual name from your FT name, so you could be lower).

I wouldn't count on it.
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Old Aug 15, 22, 3:51 pm
  #1031  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
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Originally Posted by canadiancow View Post
It's J14 O1 and there are at least 7 people above you on the upgrade list (I can't deduce your actual name from your FT name, so you could be lower).

I wouldn't count on it.
How did you see the list at this point?
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Old Aug 15, 22, 4:06 pm
  #1032  
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Originally Posted by erics2356 View Post
I'm seeing 18 open seats in J with a little less than a month to go. Sounds like a lot of open seats, but I don't know how busy this route gets closer to departure or how many upgrade requests, considering I'm probably at the bottom in priority. Chances of clearing?
Considering that most business travel is booked well within a month of departure, thats not a lot of open seats at all. I suspect that most people with status who put in an upgrade request will die on the waitlist. Your chances are approximately zero barring some sort of seismic shift in travel demand.
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Old Aug 15, 22, 5:47 pm
  #1033  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
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Thanks for responses, not holding my breath

Also want to know, how are some of you seeing the list so early on?
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Old Aug 15, 22, 5:56 pm
  #1034  
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Originally Posted by Flying Machine View Post
How did you see the list at this point?
SHARES
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Old Aug 15, 22, 8:19 pm
  #1035  
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
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How about this one? Just split my itinerary (from 3 to 2) to increase our chances and applied a MUA.
9/5: UA944 ORD-FRA. Looks like D6Z6P5 right now and 19 seats available on seating chart (I know, not a good indicator). In PP on R fare now, with ON1, O1. Buy-up was $1331 before I applied the MUA. Im Gold and wife is Silver.
Much appreciated.

Last edited by VRFast; Aug 15, 22 at 8:25 pm
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