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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Sep 7, 22, 4:32 am   -   Wikipost
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Old Aug 5, 22, 4:48 pm
  #1006  
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Originally Posted by n12hx View Post
I don't think it's actually 45/50, with Prem+ so overbooked and Y full. I can't imagine that they're planning to downgrade 22 folks (or invol bump them or other Y pax). It just seems like such an odd set-up on UA's part.
UA has done mass downgrades many times before.

That said, it does seem likely they're at least partially reflecting the oversale in the booked figures (though normally that would show as a block, not as booked seats). The seatmap currently shows 21 empty J seats, while inventory shows as J5. But the math really doesn't work if PE is in fact oversold by 22.
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Old Aug 5, 22, 4:49 pm
  #1007  
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Originally Posted by n12hx View Post
I don't think it's actually 45/50, with Prem+ so overbooked and Y full. I can't imagine that they're planning to downgrade 22 folks (or invol bump them or other Y pax). It just seems like such an odd set-up on UA's part.
I'm not 100% sure that I trust UA's IT. I do believe you're correct that J is half-full at the moment, and P+ is showing as vastly oversold. But I'm having a hard time believing that UA really managed to sell twice its allotment of P+ seats. If that turns out to be a glitch, the op-up might never materialize. If it's accurate, though, the likelihood of an op-up seems quite high if they take the time to follow the prescribed procedure. If they don't... I'd hate to hate my P+ expire when they could have secured a TATL seat.

ETA: One other thought. If they happen to swap out this plane for one without a P+ cabin, I'd sure rather have a waitlisted PP upgrade -- better yet, a cleared upgrade, if they get so generous -- than a hope for an op-up from an economy fare with an upgrade sticker.
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Old Aug 5, 22, 5:06 pm
  #1008  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
I'm not 100% sure that I trust UA's IT. I do believe you're correct that J is half-full at the moment, and P+ is showing as vastly oversold. But I'm having a hard time believing that UA really managed to sell twice its allotment of P+ seats. If that turns out to be a glitch, the op-up might never materialize. If it's accurate, though, the likelihood of an op-up seems quite high if they take the time to follow the prescribed procedure. If they don't... I'd hate to hate my P+ expire when they could have secured a TATL seat.

ETA: One other thought. If they happen to swap out this plane for one without a P+ cabin, I'd sure rather have a waitlisted PP upgrade -- better yet, a cleared upgrade, if they get so generous -- than a hope for an op-up from an economy fare with an upgrade sticker.
Fair points...worst case, I spend PPs that I didn't need to, but in all likelihood, I might not have the ability to spend them in the future anyways before they expire.
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Old Aug 5, 22, 6:10 pm
  #1009  
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Originally Posted by n12hx View Post
worst case, I spend PPs that I didn't need to
If I'm comparing outcomes, I much prefer that to being stuck in Y or PE for 8 hours with 40 more PP in my account.
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Old Aug 6, 22, 4:34 pm
  #1010  
 
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What are the odds of clearing a MUA for ORD to HNL in october? Is there a low season for hawaii travel where the odds are good or is it just constantly swamped now?
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Old Aug 6, 22, 5:06 pm
  #1011  
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Originally Posted by mahzor View Post
What are the odds of clearing a MUA for ORD to HNL in october? Is there a low season for hawaii travel where the odds are good or is it just constantly swamped now?
For a Premier Silver on the nonstop? I wouldnt like my chances. Maybe midweek, but even then its unlikely.

As a 1K, I wouldnt like my chances either. I dont think theres a real offseason for Hawaii travel at the moment.
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Old Aug 7, 22, 9:05 am
  #1012  
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October is low season but I agree with jsloan. There's no good time of year for a Silver to clear that route.
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Old Aug 7, 22, 5:23 pm
  #1013  
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
Definitely probably not

A "take the buy-up and don't look back" situation.
Amusingly, (a) a few hours after I pulled the trigger on the upgrade, my ExpertFlyer seat notification went off; 21F had become available. And (b) it was the first leg of a connecting flight, delayed to the point that my connection looked very iffy, so I ended up standing by (and clearing) onto an earlier flight, back in Y (although at least I got an E+ aisle).
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Old Aug 9, 22, 9:50 am
  #1014  
 
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So the transcon LAX EWR then on to RIC which was booked in W for around $190 All In has some benefits as to booking class.

Im booked on the 787s Coast to Coast and applied plus points. Perhaps the W will help me??
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Old Aug 9, 22, 12:16 pm
  #1015  
 
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Originally Posted by Flying Machine View Post
So the transcon LAX EWR then on to RIC which was booked in W for around $190 All In has some benefits as to booking class.

Im booked on the 787s Coast to Coast and applied plus points. Perhaps the W will help me??
PPs and W will definitely help. However, I found that buying up to W was generally not worth the gamble.
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Old Aug 9, 22, 12:30 pm
  #1016  
 
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Originally Posted by Flying Machine View Post
So the transcon LAX EWR then on to RIC which was booked in W for around $190 All In has some benefits as to booking class.

I’m booked on the 787’s Coast to Coast and applied plus points. Perhaps the W will help me??
I checked my receipt. It was $172 (memory inflation got you!!). I got this price after rebooking. The price was dropping several times that day.
Regarding your upgrade chance, it is much higher than SFO-EWR. It is too early to tell. I have not replied to your pm. I will be on a Italy-Spain trip until the end of this month.

Originally Posted by nomad420 View Post
PPs and W will definitely help. However, I found that buying up to W was generally not worth the gamble.
It was a sort of mistake fare. The fare was in W class, United's computer thought that B6 still operated RIC-LAX nonstop and tried to beat B6 to the punch.
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Old Aug 9, 22, 12:31 pm
  #1017  
 
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Originally Posted by nomad420 View Post
PPs and W will definitely help. However, I found that buying up to W was generally not worth the gamble.
I totally understand. However the low cost fare that I purchased, somehow booked into W. Therefore, Im looking forward to see if the additional class helps. Rather than STLK booking classes

Hat Tip: Kmxu
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Old Aug 9, 22, 1:00 pm
  #1018  
 
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I have gotten in on that one as well (but different routing) I am flying the fare during Labor Day weekend.

Thanks again Kmxu
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Old Aug 9, 22, 3:15 pm
  #1019  
 
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Originally Posted by Kmxu View Post
I checked my receipt. It was $172 (memory inflation got you!!). I got this price after rebooking. The price was dropping several times that day.
Regarding your upgrade chance, it is much higher than SFO-EWR. It is too early to tell. I have not replied to your pm. I will be on a Italy-Spain trip until the end of this month.

Thanks ill send you a PM when I know my exact time in RIC. I paid about $10 more than you did, I didnt re-price for the 10 bucks. I thought United could use the money to get better champagne for PDBs

It was a sort of mistake fare. The fare was in W class, United's computer thought that B6 still operated RIC-LAX nonstop and tried to beat B6 to the punch.
There is a thread about UA having higher booking classes with the same fare more or less, then the lower booking classes. I wonder if this had something to do with it. Anyway thanks again for the tip
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Old Aug 9, 22, 4:20 pm
  #1020  
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Originally Posted by Flying Machine View Post
There is a thread about UA having higher booking classes with the same fare more or less, then the lower booking classes. I wonder if this had something to do with it. Anyway thanks again for the tip
This one? High fare (class) but low bookings with lower fare published

David
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