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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old May 18, 19, 1:20 am   -   Wikipost
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Old Apr 21, 19, 5:28 am
  #991  
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: YYC
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
Booked 33/48, and PN4 is obviously a positive. But my basic rule is don't pay extra to waitlist, only to confirm. This might be a good scenario for waitlisting the MP upgrade.
thanks. We ended up taking the shot. It was C$1000 to upfare both of us to W, and we both have GPUs which might otherwise go unutilized this year. This is the first time in about 3 years I have played the upgrade lottery. Fingers crossed!
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Old Apr 21, 19, 9:20 am
  #992  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 20
Apologies in advance if I'm stated anything wrong, first time doing this. My flight is already booked so no changing at this point, although I've read a lot that will help me next time I do something like this.
No status, Fare is G.

UA 870 SYD to SFO on 5/31:

37 of 48 are booked right now.
PZ is 0
J/JN are 6.

I submitted a MP waitlist upgrade. Any ideas on odds of an upgrade? Mostly curious. It was totally worth the gamble based on the cost in miles and copay vs the bought upgrade and if it doesn't work nothing lost.

Thanks!
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Old Apr 21, 19, 9:28 am
  #993  
 
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Originally Posted by mloradites View Post
37 of 48 are booked right now.
PZ is 0
J/JN are 6.
When you're searching for inventory for upgrade purposes, you have to search just the flight you're interested in. It's actually J9 JN9 C3 D0, not J6. J6 would indicate a substantial oversell over the economy cabin. J9, unfortunately, does not.

Your odds of clearing are very low. With only 11 seats for sale this far away from departure, there's a good chance UA sells most or all of those seats. If there are any seats available at check-in, you may get an upgrade offer. Any upgrades that do occur -- and it's likely there will be none -- will be prioritized by status.
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Old Apr 21, 19, 10:40 am
  #994  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
When you're searching for inventory for upgrade purposes, you have to search just the flight you're interested in. It's actually J9 JN9 C3 D0, not J6. J6 would indicate a substantial oversell over the economy cabin. J9, unfortunately, does not.

Your odds of clearing are very low. With only 11 seats for sale this far away from departure, there's a good chance UA sells most or all of those seats. If there are any seats available at check-in, you may get an upgrade offer. Any upgrades that do occur -- and it's likely there will be none -- will be prioritized by status.
Ahh ok that makes sense for the buckets. I'm flying onward to IAD to get home so I guess that combo got me the J6 result. Thanks for the education.

I felt like low was probably what someone would say, but still worth the shot since it's refundable.

Thanks!
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Old Apr 21, 19, 10:42 am
  #995  
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Originally Posted by mloradites View Post
Ahh ok that makes sense for the buckets. I'm flying onward to IAD to get home so I guess that combo got me the J6 result. Thanks for the education.

I felt like low was probably what someone would say, but still worth the shot since it's refundable.

Thanks!
Six weeks out, you want to see 25% of the cabin (or less) booked.
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Old Apr 22, 19, 9:21 am
  #996  
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Originally Posted by exerda View Post
UA 1016 on Monday, SFO-IAD. B fare on a 738.

I'm not holding my breath. 2 seats left, a Monday, and with me checked in more than 24 hours out, sure, I'm #1 , but I expect that to drop significantly come later today and tomorrow as others check in (I may be the only person checked in at the moment based on that list...).
Failed, as expected. Just checked in full a moment ago.

I have stayed #1 on the list the entire time, from check-in at 9:50am TPE time on Sunday all the way up until they checked in full at just beyond an hour from departure. I'm kind of surprised no one with higher priority every checked in (like a GS who hadn't already cleared, or a 1K on a Y). Appears they sold at least one of the last 2 seats via upfare (it disappeared very shortly after they released ZN inventory), and the other, who knows?

Sigh. I hate trying to upgrade this route!
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Old Apr 22, 19, 9:27 am
  #997  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
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Can anyone tell me what the chances of an upgrade are?

UA 5 IAH-LHR on May 15
Currently J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z6 ZN6 P3 PN0 PZ0 with 27/48 booked.

Thx!
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Old Apr 24, 19, 6:45 am
  #998  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
When you're searching for inventory for upgrade purposes, you have to search just the flight you're interested in. It's actually J9 JN9 C3 D0, not J6. J6 would indicate a substantial oversell over the economy cabin. J9, unfortunately, does not.
Could someone please explain the highlighted section to me? Iím trying to make sense of it but canít
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Old Apr 24, 19, 7:18 am
  #999  
 
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Originally Posted by whipwhitaker View Post


Could someone please explain the highlighted section to me? Iím trying to make sense of it but canít
If only 37 of 48 seats were actually sold, but only 6 left in inventory, it would imply an inventory block of 5 additional seats (although I forget if the "booked" count on the desktop site is inclusive of blocks). That usually only happens if Y is overbooked.
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Old Apr 24, 19, 7:33 am
  #1000  
 
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Originally Posted by findark View Post
If only 37 of 48 seats were actually sold, but only 6 left in inventory, it would imply an inventory block of 5 additional seats (although I forget if the "booked" count on the desktop site is inclusive of blocks). That usually only happens if Y is overbooked.
THANKS!
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Old Apr 24, 19, 1:36 pm
  #1001  
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UA 681 SFO-LAS May 3
2 pax (1 GS), J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN1 PZ0

Debating applying RPUs or holding off for CPU.

UA 2360 LAS-SFO May 5
Same pax, J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 PZ0

Also debating RPU/CPU.

Goal is obviously to fly up front.

Thoughts?
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Old Apr 24, 19, 2:10 pm
  #1002  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
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Originally Posted by canadiancow View Post
UA 681 SFO-LAS May 3
2 pax (1 GS), J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN1 PZ0

Debating applying RPUs or holding off for CPU.

UA 2360 LAS-SFO May 5
Same pax, J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 PZ0

Also debating RPU/CPU.

Goal is obviously to fly up front.

Thoughts?
My $0.02 (and I am a pessimist) with J9 I would roll the dice for a CPU. Having said that I recently just did a SFO-LAS-SFO run with RPUs in place (posted it here). Didn't clear either way but that was out on a Friday and back on a Monday. Don't remember exactly but I think J was much less at 1 week out.
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Old Apr 24, 19, 4:51 pm
  #1003  
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Originally Posted by canadiancow View Post
UA 681 SFO-LAS May 3
...
Debating applying RPUs or holding off for CPU.

UA 2360 LAS-SFO May 5
.....
Also debating RPU/CPU.
Unless you have a huge surplus of RPUs, it is a waste of an RPU for a 400-ish flight
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Old Apr 24, 19, 4:54 pm
  #1004  
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA View Post
Unless you have a huge surplus of RPUs, it is a waste of an RPU for a 400-ish flight
There isn't a HUGE surplus, but January always tends to be "give these to distance acquaintances or they'll expire" month, hence why the option's on the table. I guess we can wait until T-120 to see if anything clears, and then apply them closer to departure.
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Old Apr 26, 19, 8:23 am
  #1005  
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Programs: UA Mileage Plus
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I booked PHX - NRT on 9/28/19 and coming back 10/11/2019 through SFO. I am a 1K and used 2 GPU's to upgrade my W fare. Out of SFO, I am on UA837, and inbound UA838.
1) Historically, are these flights difficult to upgrade during those time periods?
2) I am still in the 24 hour booking window, would you cancel this and look for something closer to flight times?
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