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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Aug 23, 19, 10:03 am   -   Wikipost
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Old Apr 7, 19, 10:21 pm
  #931  
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Murder Mitten
Posts: 297
What are my chances of an upgrade (CPU) for a Tuesday flight LAX-IAH 787-9 dreamliner flight 08:10AM UA2359 as a 1K? Do upgrades ever clear early for that flight?

Thanks
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Old Apr 8, 19, 12:29 am
  #932  
 
Join Date: May 2003
Programs: AA EXP; UA1k; B6 Mosiac; Bonvoy Titanium; Hilton Diamond; IHG Spire
Posts: 1,674
Originally Posted by WineCountryUA View Post
Additionally with the limited visibility into the waitlist and those that clear (now only those that clear at the gate) there will not be sufficient data to drop any conclusions. And at the gate, once someone clears, the history of where they came from is lost. You could try to capture the two lists and those on top of the business waitlist and not on the PP waitlist are those from PP or those that waitlisted only for business. Parsing all this out with some much missing information is not going to provide clean guidance.
In a situation like 875 on 4/9, it may be possible to get some information if UGs happen in advance. J is 45/60, P+ is 13/24, RN9. So all P+ upgrades have happened. If the P+ seats go down, it likely means an upgrade to J. A rough idea of how many P+ people are upgrading, at least on this flight. Of course, if all UGs happen at the gate, it may be difficult to determine anything since non-revs will likely fill J and P+ seats. Maybe best to just ask the gate agent !

Even a rough idea may be a good start.

I guess another consequence of P+ is that flights with P+ will rarely have PZ availability since UA would like people to book PP rather than W.

A question - is it possible to book a specific fare booking class with Expedia? EDIT: It is not.

Last edited by 1k650; Apr 8, 19 at 3:00 am
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Old Apr 8, 19, 5:40 am
  #933  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 1
Chance of clearing waitlist

My mom and I are waitlisted (miles + copay) both ways of our trip. Only status we have is that we are united explorer credit card holders. Booked flight beg of March, waitlisted end of March for flight mid May. Would like insight on our chances of being upgraded?

Outbound- ORD to FRA
currently 20 of 49 Polaris seats available and here are codes:
Available fare classes: J9 JN9 C7 D5 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L0 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

Return FRA - IAH
current 34 of 49 Polaris seats available and here are codes:
Available fare classes: J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P8 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G0 N9 XN9 X9

I'm a newbie here I hope I included everything needed.
Also can anyone tell me if United clears upgrade waitlist more than a few days or day before flight? Like a week or a month?

Thanks in advance!
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Old Apr 8, 19, 5:53 am
  #934  
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Programs: United
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Originally Posted by spartacusmcfly View Post
I know. I'm asking because I've read that UA is severely over pricing PP seats on TATL routes. I also wanted to point out to OP that a deeply discounted economy (no W requirement) can be upgraded to PP with a GPU. Depending on what OP paid for that segment, they could possibly save 1-2K if cert cleared. Finally, I've been surprised to see how easy it is to secure a PP upgrade on SFO-HKG over the past week. That said, I'm not that familiar with LHR routes.
I am a 1K. I paid nearly $7K for this flight (Polaris to LHR and PP from LHR to LAX). They are asking for additional $700 to upgrade which is quite cheap but I was hoping my status + GPU will clear in the ensuing months?
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Old Apr 8, 19, 5:57 am
  #935  
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Programs: United
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Originally Posted by mduell View Post
Is there an eligible R fare?
I hadn't checked. Should I try to see if there's an R economy fare vs. A in PP? Are you saying the if I buy an R economy fare in economy, then I should be able to upgrade with GPU instantly?
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Old Apr 8, 19, 6:06 am
  #936  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 4,264
Originally Posted by KE26 View Post
My mom and I are waitlisted (miles + copay) both ways of our trip. Only status we have is that we are united explorer credit card holders. Booked flight beg of March, waitlisted end of March for flight mid May. Would like insight on our chances of being upgraded?

Outbound- ORD to FRA
currently 20 of 49 Polaris seats available and here are codes:
Available fare classes: J9 JN9 C7 D5 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L0 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

Return FRA - IAH
current 34 of 49 Polaris seats available and here are codes:
Available fare classes: J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P8 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G0 N9 XN9 X9

I'm a newbie here I hope I included everything needed.
Also can anyone tell me if United clears upgrade waitlist more than a few days or day before flight? Like a week or a month?

Thanks in advance!
Welcome to flyertalk!

From the inventory, ORD-FRA looks like at best it would clear a week before, while FRA-IAH may clear as much as several weeks before. No guarantee for either.

You can check the actual loads with cablepick.net/united (enter your flight information and look at the flight status page it pulls). Seats aren't a reliable measure, although you can get some idea.

Originally Posted by nealsense View Post
I am a 1K. I paid nearly $7K for this flight (Polaris to LHR and PP from LHR to LAX). They are asking for additional $700 to upgrade which is quite cheap but I was hoping my status + GPU will clear in the ensuing months?
Originally Posted by nealsense View Post
I hadn't checked. Should I try to see if there's an R economy fare vs. A in PP? Are you saying the if I buy an R economy fare in economy, then I should be able to upgrade with GPU instantly?
No, R is also a Premium Plus fare, but it is a lower one, so you could potentially pay less and still have good upgrade priority. Everything is subject to PZ capacity for upgrades to Polaris, though.

I did not research LAX/LHR fares, but 7k seems quite expensive for Premium Plus / Polaris.
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Old Apr 8, 19, 7:05 am
  #937  
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Programs: BA Bronze, United 1K, HH Gold, SPG Platinum, Marriott Platinum
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Originally Posted by KE26 View Post
My mom and I are waitlisted (miles + copay) both ways of our trip. Only status we have is that we are united explorer credit card holders. Booked flight beg of March, waitlisted end of March for flight mid May. Would like insight on our chances of being upgraded?

Outbound- ORD to FRA
currently 20 of 49 Polaris seats available and here are codes:
Available fare classes: J9 JN9 C7 D5 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L0 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

Return FRA - IAH
current 34 of 49 Polaris seats available and here are codes:
Available fare classes: J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P8 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G0 N9 XN9 X9

I'm a newbie here I hope I included everything needed.
Also can anyone tell me if United clears upgrade waitlist more than a few days or day before flight? Like a week or a month?

Thanks in advance!
Welcome to FlyerTalk and especially to the United threads!

The one information that is missing is what day of the week. Midweek (Tuesday to Thursday) is easier to upgrade than weekend.

With no high status I don't see the upgrade clearing before the gate. Keep in mind that most business passengers tend to book their flights in the final two weeks before the flight. And by now there must be GS and 1Ks already waitlisted with GPUs. But there's always hope until the door of the plane closes. On a flight ORD to MUC once both my wife and I were upgraded when we were already sitting in our Economy + seats. Good Luck!
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Old Apr 8, 19, 8:10 am
  #938  
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
If that's a one-way flight, and not part of a connecting flight, I'd say your chances are nearly nil. There are only four seats left for sale.
Iím still holding out. Y up priority is ahead of others with miles/CPU, correct?
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Old Apr 8, 19, 8:14 am
  #939  
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
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Originally Posted by weezl View Post

Iím still holding out. Y up priority is ahead of others with miles/CPU, correct?
Excluding GS, yes. However, I strongly suspect that nobody will be upgraded; they will sell those last four seats, either in advance, or via TODs. They're good at it.
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Old Apr 8, 19, 9:10 am
  #940  
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Los Angeles, CA
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Originally Posted by 1k650 View Post

I guess another consequence of P+ is that flights with P+ will rarely have PZ availability since UA would like people to book PP rather than W.
I was shocked to see PZ9 on SFO-HKG for September. Even after I booked my flight (in W), PZ was still 9. I'm wondering if the opposite may be true: People book P+ or buy the cheapest Y fares and upgrade into P+, leaving extra seats in J available for PZ inventory on certain days of the week.

Originally Posted by nealsense View Post
I am a 1K. I paid nearly $7K for this flight (Polaris to LHR and PP from LHR to LAX). They are asking for additional $700 to upgrade which is quite cheap but I was hoping my status + GPU will clear in the ensuing months?
There is no PP on the LHR-LAX route at this time. It's a 789.
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Old Apr 8, 19, 12:04 pm
  #941  
 
Join Date: May 2003
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Originally Posted by SS255 View Post
I was shocked to see PZ9 on SFO-HKG for September. Even after I booked my flight (in W), PZ was still 9. I'm wondering if the opposite may be true: People book P+ or buy the cheapest Y fares and upgrade into P+, leaving extra seats in J available for PZ inventory on certain days of the week.
Thanks. It will be great if we more data points such as this to see if a pattern is emerging.

BTW, my SFO-HND U/G cleared at T-24 hours, just as the experts had predicted. I did not want to risk 837 (SFO-NRT) with the uncertain effect of P+ on W U/Gs, so I went with a more sure bet of 875 (HND).
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Old Apr 8, 19, 3:17 pm
  #942  
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Programs: UA 1K, AF Silver, AA PlatPro
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Originally Posted by fumje View Post
Welcome to flyertalk!

From the inventory, ORD-FRA looks like at best it would clear a week before, while FRA-IAH may clear as much as several weeks before. No guarantee for either.

You can check the actual loads with cablepick.net/united (enter your flight information and look at the flight status page it pulls). Seats aren't a reliable measure, although you can get some idea.
I would also (1) Check every day or two to see if PZ opens up. It can do so, but not automatically upgrade you because of the way the UA system works. But if you call in you might be able to get them to force it. (Sometimes you have to call several times.) (2) Keep an eye on any cash upgrade offers or even just the overall business class price going down, in which case you can buy up without a change fee (called a GG-BUYUP) and get your miles and cash back. (3) Keep an eye on other connecting flights that might have PZ open on them. The change fee might be worth it to get confirmed in business class. I've done all of the foregoing, though now I try not to waitlist, and will wait till the price is cheap or PZ is available, and am willing to look at lots of different connections to avoid economy.
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Old Apr 8, 19, 11:05 pm
  #943  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
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Originally Posted by nealsense View Post
I am a 1K. I paid nearly $7K for this flight (Polaris to LHR and PP from LHR to LAX). They are asking for additional $700 to upgrade which is quite cheap but I was hoping my status + GPU will clear in the ensuing months?
Wow, Iím not an expert on that route, but Iíd pay the 700 to immediately clear into Polaris on the return. Youíll be high on the waitlist given youíve got a paid PP ticket, but there could be GS passengers in PP that trump you. Additionally, the GPU is worth 500 - 1000, so paying is a no brainer if you can use the GPU elsewhere...
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Old Apr 8, 19, 11:10 pm
  #944  
 
Join Date: May 2003
Programs: AA EXP; UA1k; B6 Mosiac; Bonvoy Titanium; Hilton Diamond; IHG Spire
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Datapoint: US 837 tomorrow is 49/60 J, 19/24 P+ but everyone on the WL for J is also on WL for P+ and standby for the flight - meaning that they are all non-revs. So everyone in P+ who wanted to UG has already done so, and likely everyone in the main cabin too. I will check again before the flight leaves.

So, based on my earlier post, at most 4 people have upgraded out of 13 in P+ (and some of those 4 were likely upgrades from main cabin). Does not look that people are buying P+ to upgrade, at least from this n of 1 experiment.
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Old Apr 9, 19, 4:34 pm
  #945  
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
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Originally Posted by spartacusmcfly View Post


Wow, Iím not an expert on that route, but Iíd pay the 700 to immediately clear into Polaris on the return. Youíll be high on the waitlist given youíve got a paid PP ticket, but there could be GS passengers in PP that trump you. Additionally, the GPU is worth 500 - 1000, so paying is a no brainer if you can use the GPU elsewhere...
Super interesting experience. First, I went with your suggestion that I should upgrade. Second, it showed by $650 to upgrade. When I tried to do it it took me to the upgrade page and said that it wasn't an option. Called 1K desk, lady said that the upgrade is ~$3700 and not sure why I am seeing $650. I told her that was the exact offer I was shown at the time of purchase which I declined as I thought i will apply a GPU. Anyway, she couldn' figure it out and handed me to the web specialist who was able to see the $650 offer but when you click "learn more" it wouldnt work. We brainstormed why it would be happening and decided to remove me from GPU/waitlist (it was a risk and she wanted to double/triple check that I would be ok with that move). Once she removed me from the waitlist, the option worked and i was able to buy the upgrade!! BTW, this has happened to me in the past too. I stop seeing upgrade options once I add myself to waitlist.
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