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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Apr 7, 19, 10:26 am   -   Wikipost
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Old Mar 8, 19, 4:26 am
  #841  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Gold, SPG Gold
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
Sales of economy seats are likely used as an indicator of business demand. but there are so many factors at play that it could be almost anything -- sales of the same flight the week before, or the day after, or... etc. We'll go mad if we try to decipher inventory movements.
Originally Posted by findark View Post
I'm pretty sure sometimes they just open/close things to perturb the status quo and see what happens.
I guess I'm going mad! After a couple days it's back to Z9 ZN9. I wonder if it has to do with day of week, maybe more business class travel is purchased Wed/Thurs.
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Old Mar 8, 19, 8:45 am
  #842  
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
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Originally Posted by sardonic View Post
I guess I'm going mad! After a couple days it's back to Z9 ZN9. I wonder if it has to do with day of week, maybe more business class travel is purchased Wed/Thurs.
That's a possibility; another one is that whatever demand indicator they were using dropped back below the trend line. For example, if they were using economy sales, and no additional economy seats have sold, the needle could have swung back toward offering a discount.

Really, it just goes to show that it's best not to worry too much about it, but rather to cross your fingers and hope that you clear.
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Old Mar 8, 19, 9:48 am
  #843  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 30
Can anyone tell me what the chances of a GPU upgrade are for the following flights:

LAX-SYD UA839 Mar 12
SYD-LAX UA842 Mar 20
2 travelers (I am a 1K)

I am thinking about buying up to a W-fare but need a data point to assess my chances (if that's even possible). TIA!

Last edited by whipwhitaker; Mar 8, 19 at 10:07 am Reason: Flight numbers added. Duh
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Old Mar 8, 19, 10:36 am
  #844  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
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Asking for a friend, I already said there's a 0 chance but would love to be wrong

3/8 3/9 ORD-PEK UA 851
J1 PZ0
Economy ticket booking through Amex corporate travel, IDK the fare code

Flight status shows for the past few days only 2 people even get upgraded on, but that plane had real Polaris, while this one is schedule the 2-4-2 version. But it only shows 33 of 48 booked in J though. Why only sell 1 J in that case?

Last edited by jerseykeebs; Mar 9, 19 at 7:57 am Reason: corrected date
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Old Mar 8, 19, 10:40 am
  #845  
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Originally Posted by jerseykeebs View Post
Asking for a friend, I already said there's a 0 chance but would love to be wrong

3/8 ORD-PEK UA 851
J1 PZ0
Economy ticket booking through Amex corporate travel, IDK the fare code

Flight status shows for the past few days only 2 people even get upgraded on, but that plane had real Polaris, while this one is schedule the 2-4-2 version. But it only shows 33 of 48 booked in J though. Why only sell 1 J in that case?
That's a Polaris aircraft and anyone upgrade eligible will clear. Booked 36/50. J9=>PZ9.
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Old Mar 8, 19, 10:43 am
  #846  
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
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Originally Posted by whipwhitaker View Post
Can anyone tell me what the chances of a GPU upgrade are for the following flights:

LAX-SYD UA839 Mar 12
SYD-LAX UA842 Mar 20
2 travelers (I am a 1K)

I am thinking about buying up to a W-fare but need a data point to assess my chances (if that's even possible). TIA!
I would say decent for both flights. PN=5 on the 12th. PN = 7 on the 20th (no GS should be waiting ahead of you).
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Old Mar 8, 19, 3:16 pm
  #847  
 
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Originally Posted by jerseykeebs View Post
Asking for a friend, I already said there's a 0 chance but would love to be wrong

3/8 ORD-PEK UA 851
J1 PZ0
Economy ticket booking through Amex corporate travel, IDK the fare code

Flight status shows for the past few days only 2 people even get upgraded on, but that plane had real Polaris, while this one is schedule the 2-4-2 version. But it only shows 33 of 48 booked in J though. Why only sell 1 J in that case?
Since March 8 is today and that flight now left with empty Polaris seats (it was a real Polaris plane): did you friend get upgraded?
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Old Mar 8, 19, 8:05 pm
  #848  
 
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Originally Posted by StuckinITH View Post
Since March 8 is today and that flight now left with empty Polaris seats (it was a real Polaris plane): did you friend get upgraded?
Ugh, no I typo'ed that so hard. His flight is 3/9, I was scoping out previous flights to get an idea of the waitlist situation. Sorry to you and @Kacee for giving you a wrong date.
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Old Mar 8, 19, 9:30 pm
  #849  
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Originally Posted by jerseykeebs View Post
Ugh, no I typo'ed that so hard. His flight is 3/9, I was scoping out previous flights to get an idea of the waitlist situation. Sorry to you and @Kacee for giving you a wrong date.
T-14, J8 Z7 P0, booked 39/48, no customers waiting to upgrade, I'd say odds are pretty good.
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Old Mar 9, 19, 5:40 am
  #850  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
T-14, J8 Z7 P0, booked 39/48, no customers waiting to upgrade, I'd say odds are pretty good.
There's only one passenger in the upgrade list and that passenger is also on the standby list. It seems that the friend has not checked in yet.

Now that I think about it maybe the friend needs the visa for entry to China verified by check-in agents at the airport.

Last edited by StuckinITH; Mar 9, 19 at 6:32 am Reason: Add comment about visa
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Old Mar 9, 19, 11:53 am
  #851  
 
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Originally Posted by tstauck View Post
I would say decent for both flights. PN=5 on the 12th. PN = 7 on the 20th (no GS should be waiting ahead of you).
Agree. Tue/Wed on LAX/SYD is usually a pretty easy upgrade.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 10:20 am
  #852  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: IAD, DEL, IXC, BWI, DCA, YYZ
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  1. Available fare classes:
  2. J9
  3. JN9
  4. C9
  5. D9
  6. Z9
  7. ZN9
  8. P0
  9. PN0
  10. PZ0
  11. IN0
  12. I0


Delhi, IN (DEL) to New York/Newark, NJ, US (EWR - Liberty)
Tue, Mar 19
GPU, W fare, UA Silver (mom)
J cabin is 25/50 booked and 5 passengers ahead of mom on waitlist. I feel her chances are pretty good, but P0 worries me. I'm 1K therefore my GPU clears in PZ. When can I expect her to clear - on rolling basis or day of the flight? Please let me know if there's anything else I can do to boost her chances. I'm willing to fork upto $1K for guaranteed/TOD upgrade, but united wants $8K!!!!!
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Old Mar 11, 19, 10:27 am
  #853  
 
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Originally Posted by hokiebuy View Post
J cabin is 25/50 booked and 5 passengers ahead of mom on waitlist. I feel her chances are pretty good, but P0 worries me. I'm 1K therefore my GPU clears in PZ. When can I expect her to clear - on rolling basis or day of the flight? Please let me know if there's anything else I can do to boost her chances. I'm willing to fork upto $1K for guaranteed/TOD upgrade, but united wants $8K!!!!!
8 days before travel, I'd say her chances are pretty good, although take the waitlist numbers with a boulder of salt. Agents often just make stuff up, and that's usually a very difficult route to clear. The fact that she's traveling on a Tuesday is likely helping a lot.

If she does clear, it could be anytime between now and then, but day-of-flight is more likely than ahead of time, in my opinion, given the current P0. Then again, if it's still at 25/50 after another couple of days, they'll likely have expanded the inventory.

Good luck!
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Old Mar 11, 19, 11:04 am
  #854  
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Originally Posted by hokiebuy View Post
I feel her chances are pretty good, but P0 worries me.
Sometimes UA zeros P not because it thinks all the seats will sell, but to avoid sales of a heavily discounted P fare with no advance purchase requirement (or to prevent pax on P fares from SDCing out of a less favorable routing). I've seen this quite a bit on SFO-SIN, where UA simply would not open P within two weeks of departure, regardless how many open seats there were.

In this case, UA offers an exceptionally cheap zero day AP P fare DEL-EWR which is almost assuredly why you're seeing P0.
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Old Mar 12, 19, 10:05 am
  #855  
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Programs: MileagePlus
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Outbound available fare class:
SFO-TPE
J9
JN9
C9
D9
Z9
ZN9
P9
PN0
PZ0
IN0
I0
Travel date is 4/20. Traveler is UA Gold. (Me) Metal is 77W. J is currently 10/60 booked. I have a GPU applied by a friend, and in my mind I feel like this GPU has a very good chance of clearing, but I'm interested to hear what you guys all think
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