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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Jun 15, 22, 8:58 am   -   Wikipost
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Old May 28, 22, 3:29 pm
  #781  
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: YVR
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 850
Looking to book UA362 HNL-EWR 772 on July 5; G class and planning to use 20 points. It is RN4 so can clear into PE right now. But obviously want to go for Polaris. J8/C5 right now. Am I right that my chances aren't good at it considering it's the day after 4th of July?
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Old May 28, 22, 3:37 pm
  #782  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Programs: UA 2MM
Posts: 1,534
Originally Posted by kevflyer View Post
Looking to book UA362 HNL-EWR 772 on July 5; G class and planning to use 20 points. It is RN4 so can clear into PE right now. But obviously want to go for Polaris. J8/C5 right now. Am I right that my chances aren't good at it considering it's the day after 4th of July?
a month out with only 8 seats I would say not great, would most likely only clear at the gate if at all.
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Last edited by N104UA; May 28, 22 at 3:42 pm
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Old May 28, 22, 7:26 pm
  #783  
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Honolulu Harbor
Programs: UA 1K
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Originally Posted by 2ptraveler View Post
Hi all,

Booked a flight for 2

June 22
DEN-LAX-HNL
1075 - 1431
(currently shows 12 open F on the HNL 757-300)
17.5K/person to waitlisk


June 28
HNL-SFO-DEN
724 - 1451
(currently shows only 6 open F of the 28 F on the HNL-SFO (777-200 (layout 3 or 4) )
25K/person to waitlist…
Your chances of CPU as Plat LAX to HNL is zero. Marginally better w/ Plus Points. You have no chance of upgrade (CPU or Plus Points) HNL-SFO. If you want First on latter, you’ll have to buy it.

Originally Posted by kevflyer View Post
Looking to book UA362 HNL-EWR 772 on July 5; G class and planning to use 20 points. It is RN4 so can clear into PE right now. But obviously want to go for Polaris. J8/C5 right now. Am I right that my chances aren't good at it considering it's the day after 4th of July?
Grab the PremiumPlus seats now. Your chances HNL-EWR w/ J8 5 weeks out approaches zero.
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Last edited by WineCountryUA; May 28, 22 at 7:49 pm Reason: merged consecutive posts by same member
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Old May 28, 22, 7:52 pm
  #784  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: DEN
Programs: UA Platinum, HH Diamond, Avis Presidents Club
Posts: 38
Originally Posted by IAH-OIL-TRASH View Post
Your chances of CPU as Plat LAX to HNL is zero. Marginally better w/ Plus Points. You have no chance of upgrade (CPU or Plus Points) HNL-SFO. If you want First on latter, you’ll have to buy it.
Thanks, I kind of figured as much.

RE: PP, I was told miles and PP are equal and then other qualifiers kick in, status, cards, spend,

We flew Dec 2020 LAX-HNL and cleared the last 2 seats on a 772

I wish they flew more DEN-HNL on the 772 or 77w that has the PP seating, seems like better odds to get something. Still a little bummed I flew so much more (for me) last year and missed 1K by 4 segments but around $4K PQP. The offer to upgrade was like $6500, crazy.
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Old May 28, 22, 7:53 pm
  #785  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: DEN
Programs: UA Platinum, HH Diamond, Avis Presidents Club
Posts: 38
Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
Your chances are near zero either way. If UA doesn’t sell every seat — which, based on their inventory numbers at the moment, they think they can do — you’re going to find that many (most?) of the 1Ks on that flight will have listed for an upgrade with PlusPoints, which would put them ahead of you even if you use miles. Not because they used PlusPoints, mind you — PlusPoints and miles are treated as equivalent instruments — but because a 1K on an instrument will be ahead of a Plat on an instrument.

If you do decide to try using the miles, you may want to call and ask that they apply them only to the overwater leg; the rule where you can get the domestic upgrade for free if the overwater leg doesn’t clear only applies to Polaris-marketed segments, which LAX-HNL and HNL-SFO are not. (It’s probably a moot point, as your chances as a Plat on a hub-to-hub route are probably even worse than your chances on the Hawaii route, but you never know when massive IRROPS could pop up).

Your best bet for getting the upgrade is to watch your reservation for an attractive cash upgrade offer.
Thanks, What I'm hearing is that if the DEN-LAX (or return SFO-DEN) waitlist clears and the overwater legs don't, they'll still take the miles?

I thought the whole thing had to clear.

Yea, that's not gonna work for me. I guess I need to call.

P.S. I'm sure it's been answered, but why are all these hub connect flights out of DEN to LAX and return through SFO?

Is it just the domestic routes that are driving this?

Last edited by 2ptraveler; May 28, 22 at 7:55 pm Reason: p.s.
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Old May 28, 22, 8:59 pm
  #786  
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Join Date: Oct 2001
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Originally Posted by 2ptraveler View Post
RE: PP, I was told miles and PP are equal and then other qualifiers kick in, status, cards, spend,
Status, then fare class, and then the other stuff. The first two qualifiers break nearly all ties.

Originally Posted by 2ptraveler View Post
We flew Dec 2020 LAX-HNL and cleared the last 2 seats on a 772
Dec. 2020, with enforced quarantine / testing requirements, is a very different market than today is.

Originally Posted by 2ptraveler View Post
I wish they flew more DEN-HNL on the 772 or 77w that has the PP seating, seems like better odds to get something.
They still have a large subfleet of grounded 772s. That said, the difference isn’t as great as you’d think, because people are more willing to pay for the flatbed seat than they are the recliner. So, more seats doesn’t necessarily equate to more upgrades.

Originally Posted by 2ptraveler View Post
Thanks, What I'm hearing is that if the DEN-LAX (or return SFO-DEN) waitlist clears and the overwater legs don't, they'll still take the miles?

I thought the whole thing had to clear.
Correct. If either segment clears, the entire upgrade amount is deducted. There’s an exception to this rule for flights where one leg is marketed as Polaris (e.g., long-haul international). Hawaii flights don’t qualify for that exception, so if DEN-LAX or SFO-DEN were to clear, they’d charge you for the upgrade as if the HNL legs had cleared.

Originally Posted by 2ptraveler View Post
P.S. I'm sure it's been answered, but why are all these hub connect flights out of DEN to LAX and return through SFO?

Is it just the domestic routes that are driving this?
The fare rules will allow you to connect through either city, so any difference you’re seeing is due to inventory,
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Old May 29, 22, 2:11 am
  #787  
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: SNA (home), LAX, BOM/PNQ, LHR
Programs: UA Platinum/*G, Marriott Gold Elite, IHG Platinum, HHonors Silver
Posts: 923
Wuestion: Tomorrow at 11:45pm PST (check in time) assuming 15 or less people buy a ticket between now and then, everyone should be purged from the waitlist at check in right? thanks!

(I say 15 because if 15 people buy then that leaves 10 open seats and all 8 clear with 2 open seats which they typically like to leave open).

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Old May 29, 22, 6:21 am
  #788  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 8,251
Originally Posted by flyingrohit View Post
Wuestion: Tomorrow at 11:45pm PST (check in time) assuming 15 or less people buy a ticket between now and then, everyone should be purged from the waitlist at check in right? thanks!

(I say 15 because if 15 people buy then that leaves 10 open seats and all 8 clear with 2 open seats which they typically like to leave open).

img
AnsWer (): probably within the hour after check-in everyone on that list with a revenue ticket will clear. I think everyone on that list has a revenue ticket.

It's not guaranteed though. Sometimes they just hold the list for unknown reasons.
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Old May 29, 22, 3:18 pm
  #789  
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: SNA (home), LAX, BOM/PNQ, LHR
Programs: UA Platinum/*G, Marriott Gold Elite, IHG Platinum, HHonors Silver
Posts: 923
Originally Posted by fumje View Post
AnsWer (): probably within the hour after check-in everyone on that list with a revenue ticket will clear. I think everyone on that list has a revenue ticket.

It's not guaranteed though. Sometimes they just hold the list for unknown reasons.
oops excuse the misspell, English is not my strength especially at 1am. Sounds good I guess we’ll find out soon enough in 9 hours and will report back the results thanks!
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Old May 30, 22, 9:22 am
  #790  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: San Francisco, CA (SFO)
Programs: UA 1K, UA .53 MM, Marriott Gold, Nexus, GE, TSA Pre, Hertz PC
Posts: 570
Elusive CPU: ORD-SFO

UA 2084
Sunday, 5/29/22
ORD-SFO
6:25 PM departure
1K on U fare

I was #6 on the Upgrade List and cleared around T-22, along with 6-7 other pax. What a difference a holiday weekend makes. Can't remember the last time I cleared ORD-SFO on a CPU, let alone had a fighting chance of clearing.
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Old May 30, 22, 9:29 am
  #791  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 8,251
Originally Posted by flyingrohit View Post
oops excuse the misspell, English is not my strength especially at 1am. Sounds good I guess we’ll find out soon enough in 9 hours and will report back the results thanks!
And they even got some decent seats.
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Old May 30, 22, 1:29 pm
  #792  
 
Join Date: Apr 2022
Location: TYO
Programs: United Premier Silver
Posts: 39
Originally Posted by cczzll View Post
Yes, asking about PP to Business on EWR > LAX for myself only. (And, perhaps, my husband if I bump him into a PP seat.) My flight from EWR > LAX > NRT was purchased as PP, hence it being an R fare. Originally, my husband was on another EWR > LAX flight but decided it was better if we left for the airport together. Hence the different fare but same flight. I purchased PP for myself to better up my odds of the +P clearing for LAX > NRT at the very least. It'd be nice to be in Business/Polaris that entire day, though, considering I was bumped from a 13hr nonstop to 20 hrs of travel and have to pick up pets from the kennel in Tokyo the day I land. I tend to stay up all night before flights to sleep on planes and adjust to Japan time.

I'll call at check in for my husband to get in E+. He is 6'6", so E+ really helps him. He's just too cheap to spring for expensive seats since he doesn't fly often!! (While I do for work).
Just an update: My LAX > NRT leg cleared into Polaris from PP on a Plus Points upgrade today for a flight ~20 days away.
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Old May 30, 22, 2:15 pm
  #793  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: New York City
Programs: UA GS 1MM
Posts: 180
Originally Posted by benewr View Post
UGH ! CDG-EWR is now down to J5 C5 D2 and the EWR-CDG is now full full since they cancellee the 2d flight and consolidated everyone in the 6:30pm 😡😡😡
Update :

Flight was 57 +1 blocked 3h before departure.
#1 cleared before boarding
#2 and #3 cleared into PP before boarding then into Polaris right after boarding.
2 more pax cleared into Polaris too.

So everyone was happy !!
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Old May 30, 22, 8:40 pm
  #794  
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Programs: Star Alliance, UA MileagePlus
Posts: 3
Looking to apply pluspoints on UA1 SFO-SIN on 7/30. The inventory is a bit surprising to me (D0 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 PZ0) but there are still 37 open seats in Polaris according to the seat map.

Also applying for PP which is currently 07 ON7 R0 RN0.

Do I have any chance at these levels given the current waitlists?
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Old May 30, 22, 9:15 pm
  #795  
Moderator: United Airlines; FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.85MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 59,289
Originally Posted by Double IPA View Post
...The inventory is a bit surprising to me (D0 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 PZ0) but there are still 37 open seats in Polaris according to the seat map.
....
Do I have any chance at these levels given the current waitlists?
It is J9 C3, UA is force higher prices, no discount J. Pricing / inventory are working different this summer.

The old saw about fare classes and upgrades has been upended with recent pricing practices, UA is betting on a strong demand filling most of the seats even at extraordinary high price. This may maximize the revenue but may not fill the seats. If UA does fill the seats, the lower fare classes and upgrade inventory will open up --- may not be until very close to departure, if ever. It a bit of RM bluffing. UA and others are betting demand will capitulate to the high prices, time will tell. Its appears to be working domestically, it worked for PVG, timel will tell if it will work for SIN.
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