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-   -   [Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/united-airlines-mileageplus/1885647-consolidated-chance-upgrade-clearing-my-flight.html)

jsloan Mar 28, 2024 8:55 am


Originally Posted by julietnov (Post 36116848)
I am correct in understanding that my odds are good only if it is PN & PZ "fares." If that happens, I can add myself to the list. If those don't appear, is it worth going on the waitist (at least one way before)?

The word you're looking for is "inventory," not 'fares." Your upgrade requires space in the PZ inventory bucket (often, confusingly, called "fare bucket"), so if there are n people traveling, and you see PZn or higher, an upgrade would clear immediately (no need for the list). You cannot make use of PN inventory space to upgrade -- that's reserved for people using an upgrade instrument from a Global Services account. However, PN>0 is a good sign, as it means that UA isn't seeing the sales level it would like and is starting to be willing to upgrade some passengers.

In the more usual case that PZ=0, your upgrade would be waitlisted, as you suggested. If you had the miles to spare, I'd say to go ahead and add yourself to the list, but since you're talking about transferring Chase points, I'd be hesitant to do so just for a waitlist offer. At a minimum, I'd want to see PN9 before I transferred the points in: United miles are pretty definitively worth less than Chase points, especially if you have the Sapphire Reserve.

Honestly, even if I saw sufficient PZ space, I'd want to check the cash buy-up price before I gave up 4K United miles, 16K Chase points, and $425 for a Polaris upgrade. If the cash buyup were $750 or less, I'd probably just take that and save my points.


Originally Posted by julietnov (Post 36116848)
I am not familiar with the "date trick"

I think UA closed that loophole recently anyway.

Kmxu Mar 28, 2024 9:09 am


Originally Posted by julietnov (Post 36116848)
--------
Thanks so much for the warm welcome and speedy reply!

The Return flight is on Thursday May 9. Right now, it's $1350 to upgrade in cash each way, which is a bit steep (but I flew biz last summer to Europe and know the benefits).

I am correct in understanding that my odds are good only if it is PN & PZ "fares." If that happens, I can add myself to the list. If those don't appear, is it worth going on the waitist (at least one way before)?

I am not familiar with the "date trick" - I only just learned of these other fares and expert mode last night and have been trying to understand - are you able to point me in the right direction (step by step would be appreciated)?

It is very simple. On your smart device, change the date to your travel date. Open up united.com and find "flight status" then "Polaris upgrade" waitlist of your flight. You can only find out how many pax are on WL now. You will know your exact position on WL after requesting for upgrade. Meanwhile, you also check the "PremiumPlus upgrade" WL. Find the position of the first name appearing on both lists. You will be ahead of this person if requesting for upgrade now. This information will be useful before you decide on transferring miles.

If PZ is nonzero, you request for upgrade with miles+co-pay, you will get the seat immediately. If PZ is zero, you will be waitlisted. PN space (for Global Service's instruments) is always open before PZ space (for anyone else) is open. Because your trip is 25 days away, United can still sell a lot of tickets before opening up any space for upgrades. Your current WL position may be moved down if new pax with premier status who purchase PremiumPlus fare in the next 25 days.

Hope that these explanations do not confuse you too much. Good luck.

Add: Date trick is dead as mentioned by jsloan

ContinentalFan Mar 28, 2024 11:51 am


Originally Posted by Ski CB (Post 36116595)
Long time watcher, rare poster, thanks in advance / apologies for misses...
Lowly Silver (with a +1 no status, same PNR) both booked in PP (A) hoping for J, looking at applying miles+copay (waitlist of course) for SFO-SIN (and maybe vv but less important imo) in Mid-May, Thursday PM flight (UA1). Not seeing any options for cash only upgrade, may have something to do with it being an agency booking (A to J cash price from agency was too much).

From all my reading it looks like it's very unlikely to clear given the popularity of instruments on this route and UA waiting until the last minute to release any PZ, I spoke with UA yesterday who currently said 3x 1K on the list from PP w/instruments but we're ~6 weeks out (also why I am not posting inventory) which seems an eternity.

But for anyone with first hand experience ... Is there ... any realistic chance this could work out for us? Thanks in advance.

It is a long shot, but strange things happen. For example, I was on UA2 this morning. The flight was full. There were a lot of non-revs on the upgrade list, who spilled over from UA28 the previous night. I thought the flight would be oversold, but they cleared the list with two open seats in Polaris. I didn’t think to check until an FA asked me why I didn’t try for an upgrade. I was surprised to see two open seats; it’s rare, but it happens.

dkc192 Mar 28, 2024 12:01 pm

Two open seats in J on UA2 even after all nonrevs cleared?! That's quite something.

ContinentalFan Mar 28, 2024 12:08 pm


Originally Posted by dkc192 (Post 36117460)
Two open seats in J on UA2 even after all nonrevs cleared?! That's quite something.

I was stunned, particularly since about eight non-revs didn’t clear into UA28 on Wednesday night. Once that flight closed, they automagically appeared on the UA2 list. 😊

I was watching all the flights last night after UA1 was canceled on Tuesday. It was fun watching United juggle planes around to make UA2 happen this morning.

scotts tots Mar 28, 2024 12:19 pm


Originally Posted by Ski CB (Post 36116595)
Long time watcher, rare poster, thanks in advance / apologies for misses...
Lowly Silver (with a +1 no status, same PNR) both booked in PP (A) hoping for J, looking at applying miles+copay (waitlist of course) for SFO-SIN (and maybe vv but less important imo) in Mid-May, Thursday PM flight (UA1). Not seeing any options for cash only upgrade, may have something to do with it being an agency booking (A to J cash price from agency was too much).

From all my reading it looks like it's very unlikely to clear given the popularity of instruments on this route and UA waiting until the last minute to release any PZ, I spoke with UA yesterday who currently said 3x 1K on the list from PP w/instruments but we're ~6 weeks out (also why I am not posting inventory) which seems an eternity.

But for anyone with first hand experience ... Is there ... any realistic chance this could work out for us? Thanks in advance.

I think there is certainly a chance but from my experience you’ll probably need weather in Denver or Newark to have it happen.

Story: 1K applied PP for my wife on UA1. There was weather in Denver and she didn’t get to sfo on time - I checked UG list and there were 12 seats and 11 people on upgrade list so you’d have made it.

then - next day, bad weather again in Denver, she made it to sfo and pp cleared but everyone on upgrade list cleared again. Two days in a row but again - you probably need something like that to happen. ymmv

julietnov Mar 28, 2024 12:42 pm


Originally Posted by Kmxu (Post 36116949)
It is very simple. On your smart device, change the date to your travel date. Open up united.com and find "flight status" then "Polaris upgrade" waitlist of your flight. You can only find out how many pax are on WL now. You will know your exact position on WL after requesting for upgrade. Meanwhile, you also check the "PremiumPlus upgrade" WL. Find the position of the first name appearing on both lists. You will be ahead of this person if requesting for upgrade now. This information will be useful before you decide on transferring miles.

If PZ is nonzero, you request for upgrade with miles+co-pay, you will get the seat immediately. If PZ is zero, you will be waitlisted. PN space (for Global Service's instruments) is always open before PZ space (for anyone else) is open. Because your trip is 25 days away, United can still sell a lot of tickets before opening up any space for upgrades. Your current WL position may be moved down if new pax with premier status who purchase PremiumPlus fare in the next 25 days.

Hope that these explanations do not confuse you too much. Good luck.

Add: Date trick is dead as mentioned by jsloan

-------
What about the ZN inventory bucket?

jsloan Mar 28, 2024 12:45 pm


Originally Posted by julietnov (Post 36117550)
What about the ZN inventory bucket?

ZN used to be used as inventory control for standard awards before they allowed all passengers last-seat access (at inflated prices). Today, I think we've sussed out that it can be used for the Skip the Waitlist feature with PlusPoints, but (a) you'd need to be a 1K traveler to use this, and (b) Skip the Waitlist is only available on long-haul South America routes.

TL/DR: You can safely ignore ZN.

julietnov Mar 28, 2024 12:53 pm


Originally Posted by jsloan (Post 36117562)
ZN used to be used as inventory control for standard awards before they allowed all passengers last-seat access (at inflated prices). Today, I think we've sussed out that it can be used for the Skip the Waitlist feature with PlusPoints, but (a) you'd need to be a 1K traveler to use this, and (b) Skip the Waitlist is only available on long-haul South America routes.

TL/DR: You can safely ignore ZN.

-----

Thanks for clarifying there are so many different options, just wishful thinking over here :). Will continue to check for the PZ fare to pop up!

Ski CB Mar 28, 2024 12:59 pm

On UA28 on the return leg, may try to apply it there if no dice on the outbound. Thanks!

Ski CB Mar 28, 2024 1:01 pm


Originally Posted by scotts tots (Post 36117504)
I think there is certainly a chance but from my experience you’ll probably need weather in Denver or Newark to have it happen.

Story: 1K applied PP for my wife on UA1. There was weather in Denver and she didn’t get to sfo on time - I checked UG list and there were 12 seats and 11 people on upgrade list so you’d have made it.

then - next day, bad weather again in Denver, she made it to sfo and pp cleared but everyone on upgrade list cleared again. Two days in a row but again - you probably need something like that to happen. ymmv

Thank You, since my origin is DEN, I guess I'll hope and not hope for weather ;) - guess we'll go for it and see what happens


Originally Posted by Ski CB (Post 36116595)
Long time watcher, rare poster, thanks in advance / apologies for misses...
Lowly Silver (with a +1 no status, same PNR) both booked in PP (A) hoping for J, looking at applying miles+copay (waitlist of course) for SFO-SIN (and maybe vv but less important imo) in Mid-May, Thursday PM flight (UA1). Not seeing any options for cash only upgrade, may have something to do with it being an agency booking (A to J cash price from agency was too much).

From all my reading it looks like it's very unlikely to clear given the popularity of instruments on this route and UA waiting until the last minute to release any PZ, I spoke with UA yesterday who currently said 3x 1K on the list from PP w/instruments but we're ~6 weeks out (also why I am not posting inventory) which seems an eternity.

But for anyone with first hand experience ... Is there ... any realistic chance this could work out for us? Thanks in advance.

For those interested, got cash offers for essentially fare-ups as soon as UA rep removed the errant segments to clear up the agency issue. Posted the SIN-SFO (reverse of what I was originally looking for and still may try to do Miles + CoPay there) in the appropriate thread.


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