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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Sep 5, 19, 12:41 pm   -   Wikipost
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Old Jan 23, 19, 12:46 pm
  #706  
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Originally Posted by Tzvika Barenholz View Post
WDYGT? chances of an upgrade? and how far in advance likely to clear?
Outbound is booked 27/48. Inbound is booked 23/48. Those are strong numbers for 4-5 weeks prior to departure, and that's reflected in the inventory. UA isn't offering any discount fares; they think they can sell the rest of the seats.

The good news is that you'd be ahead of anybody else using a 1K instrument. The bad news is that nobody might get upgraded at all. Keep an eye on the flights. If they're still booked 27/48 and 23/48 one week prior to departure, you'd have a good shot. If they're at 43/48, not so much.

Good luck!
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Old Jan 23, 19, 2:15 pm
  #707  
 
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Thank you, jsloan! makes sense. here's hoping.
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Old Jan 23, 19, 5:52 pm
  #708  
 
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EWR-BOM this Saturday 1/26

I have three family members flying this Saturday from EWR-BOM on UA 48, and I'm using my GPUs to try and upgrade them.
They're all on the waitlist right now and the flight is currently booked to 51/60.

My sister is a 1K and my brother in law and nephew have no status but are on the same PNR as her. and they are on W fares.

I guess I want to make sure I understand how upgrade clearing works:
- For an upgrade to clear in advance, they will clear based on the highest status on the PNR and fare class within the group of passengers that are waiting for a GPU upgrade. so because my sister is a 1K all will be treated as a 1K
- Whenever they check-in starting at T-24, the PNR will need to be split.
- However, the 'hidden' waitlist will still be active until T-3 hours or so when the gate takes control -- i.e. as long as they don't check in this will still be based on my sister's 1K status through this period. however, if they check in and split the PNR at this point, they will all go to their OWN status so if United clears upgrades between T-24 (check in time) and T-3 the two non-status pax will be much lower on the list on the hidden waitlist. however, their check in time will be earlier in case they
- Now, at T-3 once clearing moves to the airport standby list, the three pax will all clear based on MY status and their fare class (i.e. for example, since I am a 1K, all three passengers would come in ahead of Premier Gold who are using miles to upgrade). So they would appear in sequential order on the standby list. they'd be below: (1) other GS (or anyone that a GS is trying to upgrade using an instrument), (2) 1Ks on higher than W fares (or anyone that a 1K is trying to upgrade with an instrument higher than a W fare). Other 1Ks or recipient of 1K GPUs with W fares would be sorted in the same group with them based on check in time. any other 1K or lower tier on a lower fare class or mileage upgrades would slot in below regardless of check in time.

Is that the right understanding?

Given that does it make sense to check in at T-24 or wait till the airport to check in around T-3? i guess my inclination is they should check in as early as possible to get the earlier time stamp on their check in, since it's unlikely united would upgrade a group of 3 pax between T-24 and T-3 but would welcome any insight on this (the only advantage to keeping them on the same PNR in this window).

would love to know what people think!!!
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Old Jan 23, 19, 6:13 pm
  #709  
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Originally Posted by kv99 View Post
- For an upgrade to clear in advance, they will clear based on the highest status on the PNR and fare class within the group of passengers that are waiting for a GPU upgrade. so because my sister is a 1K all will be treated as a 1K
- Whenever they check-in starting at T-24, the PNR will need to be split.
Yes to both.

Originally Posted by kv99 View Post
however, if they check in and split the PNR at this point, they will all go to their OWN status so if United clears upgrades between T-24 (check in time) and T-3 the two non-status pax will be much lower on the list on the hidden waitlist. however, their check in time will be earlier in case they
They probably retain the 1K status even after the PNR splits, but this is very hard to know for certain.

Originally Posted by kv99 View Post
Now, at T-3 once clearing moves to the airport standby list, the three pax will all clear based on MY status and their fare class (i.e. for example, since I am a 1K, all three passengers would come in ahead of Premier Gold who are using miles to upgrade). So they would appear in sequential order on the standby list. they'd be below: (1) other GS (or anyone that a GS is trying to upgrade using an instrument), (2) 1Ks on higher than W fares (or anyone that a 1K is trying to upgrade with an instrument higher than a W fare). Other 1Ks or recipient of 1K GPUs with W fares would be sorted in the same group with them based on check in time. any other 1K or lower tier on a lower fare class or mileage upgrades would slot in below regardless of check in time.
We really don't know for sure. However, since both your instrument and a pax on the original PNR are 1K, it seems pretty clear they should have been added to the visible list (all three) with priority WBW, which would indeed sort them in with other 1Ks on W fares. How the ordering actually shakes out within that is beyond me.

Originally Posted by kv99 View Post
Given that does it make sense to check in at T-24 or wait till the airport to check in around T-3? i guess my inclination is they should check in as early as possible to get the earlier time stamp on their check in, since it's unlikely united would upgrade a group of 3 pax between T-24 and T-3 but would welcome any insight on this (the only advantage to keeping them on the same PNR in this window).
If your goal is to maximize E(number of upgrades) and don't care how the party may be split between cabins, I would check in right away and split the PNR. Note this will split the PNR for any downline travel, and may cause your party to be separated in the case of upgrades or IRROPS.
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Old Jan 23, 19, 9:09 pm
  #710  
 
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Originally Posted by findark View Post

If your goal is to maximize E(number of upgrades) and don't care how the party may be split between cabins, I would check in right away and split the PNR. Note this will split the PNR for any downline travel, and may cause your party to be separated in the case of upgrades or IRROPS.
Thank you so much for the info! If they don't clear in advance and want to go on the standby list they HAVE to have their PNR split right? there's really no choice at that point.
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Old Jan 24, 19, 1:54 am
  #711  
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Originally Posted by kv99 View Post
Thank you so much for the info! If they don't clear in advance and want to go on the standby list they HAVE to have their PNR split right? there's really no choice at that point.
Yes. There might some border case where you have a high but not infinite value on sitting together, and therefore want to try to get all 3 to clear at once by delaying check-in. It all depends on your priorities.
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Old Jan 24, 19, 6:32 am
  #712  
 
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MP Upgrade clearing question/chances:

United Gold, I'm booked in B on UA80 / UA2151 and I requested an upgrade using 20,000 points and $100 (or something close to that) about three weeks ago -- it's still showing as Upgrade Requested at about 96 hours out -- if I use "Change Seats" I can see two seats in Business on UA80 and a couple in First on UA2151.

Is there anything I can do at this stage to make the upgrade more likely to clear? Is there any way of figuring out when Iíll know if it will clear or not?

UA 80: J1 JN1 C1 D1 Z1 ZN1 P1 PN1 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y6 YN6 B6 M5 E5 U5 H5 HN5 Q4 V4 W3 S3 T2 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN2 X0
UA 2151: J1 JN1 C1 D1 Z1 ZN1 P1 PN1 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y6 YN6 B6 M5 E5 U5 H5 HN5 Q4 V4 W3 S3 T2 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN2 X0

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jan 25, 19 at 3:11 am
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Old Jan 24, 19, 7:54 am
  #713  
 
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Originally Posted by RobBurke View Post
MP Upgrade clearing question/chances:

Star Gold, I'm booked in B on UA80 / UA2151 and I've requested an upgrade using 20,000 points and $100 (or something close to that) -- it's still showing as Upgrade Requested at about 96 hours out -- if I use "Change Seats" I can see two seats in Business on UA80 and a couple in First on UA2151.

Is there anything I can do at this stage to make the upgrade more likely to clear? Is there any way of figuring out when Iíll know if it will clear or not?
If it's the Sunday flight 80, it does not look good at all for the upgrade to clear. It's J1 JN1 C1 D1 Zi ZN1 P1 PN0 PZ0. Most probably there can be some GS, 1K or Platinum which have higher priority than Golds. And some GS or 1K might want to get rid of their GPUs that expire at the end of this month.
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Old Jan 24, 19, 9:04 am
  #714  
 
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Originally Posted by RobBurke View Post
United Gold, I'm booked in B on UA80 / UA2151 and I requested an upgrade using 20,000 points and $100 (or something close to that) about three weeks ago -- it's still showing as Upgrade Requested at about 96 hours out -- if I use "Change Seats" I can see two seats in Business on UA80 and a couple in First on UA2151.

Is there anything I can do at this stage to make the upgrade more likely to clear? Is there any way of figuring out when I’ll know if it will clear or not?

UA 80: J1 JN1 C1 D1 Z1 ZN1 P1 PN1 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y6 YN6 B6 M5 E5 U5 H5 HN5 Q4 V4 W3 S3 T2 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN2 X0
UA 2151: J1 JN1 C1 D1 Z1 ZN1 P1 PN1 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y6 YN6 B6 M5 E5 U5 H5 HN5 Q4 V4 W3 S3 T2 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN2 X0
It looks like you searched for MAN-SEA and then found the appropriate connecting option. To get an accurate inventory for upgrading you need to search MAN-EWR and EWR-SEA separately.

At this point it's not likely you'll clear both flights, and there's not much you can do. You can watch for PZ to open on each flight and call to grab it if it does but you've not cleared. However, typically there's only a small chance of that happening.

Otherwise just remember to request a refund if you clear EWR-SEA only.

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jan 25, 19 at 3:12 am Reason: cleanup after merge
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Old Jan 24, 19, 9:41 am
  #715  
 
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Originally Posted by fumje View Post
It looks like you searched for MAN-SEA and then found the appropriate connecting option. To get an accurate inventory for upgrading you need to search MAN-EWR and EWR-SEA separately.

At this point it's not likely you'll clear both flights, and there's not much you can do. You can watch for PZ to open on each flight and call to grab it if it does but you've not cleared. However, typically there's only a small chance of that happening.

Otherwise just remember to request a refund if you clear EWR-SEA only.


edit: I see you basically cross-posted here; please don't do that!
Thanks for the info -- and apologies for the cross-post, won't do it again!
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Old Jan 24, 19, 11:53 am
  #716  
 
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Hi all, any advice from regular flyers on HKG routes? I need to depart the US on a Friday or Saturday in March, and return on a Sunday (could maybe do Monday if the first leg is on Saturday). I've been considering ORD, EWR, or SFO-HKG, or IAH-NRT (with a connecting flight to HKG that wouldn't be upgraded). There's obviously no PZ space at all right now (and hasn't been for quite a while). For the Friday and Saturday, there's a fluctuating P=1 to 4 on the SFO-HKG on Friday, but just C/J/Z on the rest. For the return, there are a couple of flights (HKG-EWR, NRT-IAH) with P=9.

I know that all of this is going to come down to luck, but any historical experience on this would be really welcome before I book. Thanks!
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Old Jan 24, 19, 11:57 am
  #717  
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Originally Posted by mechteach View Post
Hi all, any advice from regular flyers on HKG routes? I need to depart the US on a Friday or Saturday in March, and return on a Sunday (could maybe do Monday if the first leg is on Saturday). I've been considering ORD, EWR, or SFO-HKG, or IAH-NRT (with a connecting flight to HKG that wouldn't be upgraded). There's obviously no PZ space at all right now (and hasn't been for quite a while). For the Friday and Saturday, there's a fluctuating P=1 to 4 on the SFO-HKG on Friday, but just C/J/Z on the rest. For the return, there are a couple of flights (HKG-EWR, NRT-IAH) with P=9.
In general, you have much better chances Friday/Monday than Saturday/Sunday. Beyond that it's very flight specific. Picking based on available indicators, you would want the flight(s) with the highest P figure and the lowest "booked" percentage.

NRT-HKG on the AirJapan 767 is to be avoided if possible.
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Old Jan 24, 19, 5:03 pm
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
In general, you have much better chances Friday/Monday than Saturday/Sunday. Beyond that it's very flight specific. Picking based on available indicators, you would want the flight(s) with the highest P figure and the lowest "booked" percentage.

NRT-HKG on the AirJapan 767 is to be avoided if possible.
Thanks for the advice on avoiding the Air Japan flight - I like NRT transits, so it is good to know that isn't a good option!
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Old Jan 25, 19, 2:26 am
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As posted above, I have used my GPUs for 3 family members on EWR-BOM this Saturday. It looks like it's booked to 54/60.

I've called and asked how the flights look a couple of times and I have some agents who tell me the # of people on the waitlist (about 20) but say that they can't say where my family members fall on the list, but I had one today who said very explicitly -- they are #13 , 14, and 15 on the list and will not clear. My guess right now is that they might not clear if there are 20 people on the list but there are so many factors that go into it that I found it odd that the agent was so definitive.

Anyway just out of curiousity, do the agents know exactly where people fall on the list?
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Old Jan 25, 19, 5:22 am
  #720  
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Applied a GPU on IAH-SCL leaving tomorrow. I am Premier Gold and it is a B-fare.
24 out of 30 seats are currently sold.

J5 JN5 C5 D5 Z5 ZN5 P5 PN2 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X9

PN2 means no GS and full-fare 1K's are standing by for upgrade correct? any chance for me?
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