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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Apr 7, 19, 10:26 am   -   Wikipost
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Old Jul 27, 18, 5:00 pm
  #46  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: SFO
Programs: UA 1k
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I know SFO-SIN is one of the harder upgrades in the UA network, but I am wondering if I might have a shot clearing a GPU on this flight. I'm buying biz on the way back since the cabins already half full. I'm hoping since the flight is so empty and its the day after Christmas my chances are better. Any insight is appreciated!
  • Available fare classes: J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P9, PN6, R0, RN0, IN0, I0, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, E9, U9, H9, HN9, Q9, V9, W9, S0, T0, L0, K0, G0, N9, XN0, X0
  • 2 Seats taken in biz, 8 in E+
  • UA 29 on 12/26/18
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Old Jul 27, 18, 5:49 pm
  #47  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
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Originally Posted by IAH-OIL-TRASH View Post
Ah - so placeholder is preventing me from choosing coach seat even though some might be unoccupied. I keep thinking I'll be in a middle seat in the last row and they'll run out of cheeseburgers before they get to me. Hopefully upgrade comes through.



Mahalo!
Originally Posted by findark View Post
Very few people know this secret, so usually any time that evening should be good. I don't know the exact load time to the minute, or even if it's deterministic.
Originally Posted by nomad420 View Post
Thanks you guys, very valuable information for a common route for me. While this doesn't happen to me often I have experienced what I-O-T is going through on rare occasion so thanks again.
Not advising complacency, but my observation is that from about T-72 (whenever the seat map actually loads) to T-36 you can get a good E+ seat pretty reliably.


edit add:

Originally Posted by Brmweber View Post
I know SFO-SIN is one of the harder upgrades in the UA network, but I am wondering if I might have a shot clearing a GPU on this flight. I'm buying biz on the way back since the cabins already half full. I'm hoping since the flight is so empty and its the day after Christmas my chances are better. Any insight is appreciated!
  • Available fare classes: J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P9, PN6, R0, RN0, IN0, I0, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, E9, U9, H9, HN9, Q9, V9, W9, S0, T0, L0, K0, G0, N9, XN0, X0
  • 2 Seats taken in biz, 8 in E+
  • UA 29 on 12/26/18
Obviously that's quite a while from now, but odds look good. Booked 2/48 now, and PN6 means you might even see open R soon. I think since they changed 37,38 (LAX) into 28,29, clearing from SFO is less difficult.

You can loads with the flight status link:
https://www.united.com/web/en-US/apps/travel/flightstatus/results.aspx?FLN=29&FLD=12/26/2018&FSO=SFO&FSD=SIN
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Old Jul 27, 18, 8:38 pm
  #48  
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: PHL
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Curious about what my chances are for an upgrade on UA 872 TPE-SFO on 9/14. Applied a GPU on a W fare a while back and have been checking for R space constantly but nothing is opening up. Inventory seems to be in flux a lot too- there was Z9 and ZN9 for a long time and P9 that comes and goes. Now it's Z0 and P0. Been checking the cablepick tool but it seems that even with the inventory changes, business class is not being booked accordingly. Anyone know what the deal is? Also any opinions on the GPU clearing would be much appreciated. Thanks!
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Old Jul 27, 18, 8:46 pm
  #49  
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
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Business booked 16 out of 60 by the way! It was 11 out of 60 just a few days ago so maybe United is expecting to sell a lot 6 weeks out? E+ has 20 seats booked according to the seat map.
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Old Jul 27, 18, 8:50 pm
  #50  
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Originally Posted by doverflyer View Post
Curious about what my chances are for an upgrade on UA 872 TPE-SFO on 9/14. Applied a GPU on a W fare a while back and have been checking for R space constantly but nothing is opening up. Inventory seems to be in flux a lot too- there was Z9 and ZN9 for a long time and P9 that comes and goes. Now it's Z0 and P0. Been checking the cablepick tool but it seems that even with the inventory changes, business class is not being booked accordingly. Anyone know what the deal is? ...
Remember UA has years of data on this route. Z0 & P0 means sales are doing as expected or better than expected based on their forecasts/models to sell out the cabin. That can change but for now UA is feeling comfortable. There has been some discussion on FT that perhaps these inventory changes are set too sensitive.
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Old Jul 27, 18, 8:50 pm
  #51  
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Originally Posted by doverflyer View Post
Business booked 16 out of 60 by the way! It was 11 out of 60 just a few days ago so maybe United is expecting to sell a lot 6 weeks out?
That's what D9 Z0 suggests. I'd call this one 50-50. The route's good for upgrades, but not if you catch the wrong day.
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Old Jul 27, 18, 9:00 pm
  #52  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
That's what D9 Z0 suggests. I'd call this one 50-50. The route's good for upgrades, but not if you catch the wrong day.
Thanks for the quick replies!

I'm not sure I want to play the waiting game... I'm considering changing my flight to the previous day which has R6 right now. But then I get hit with the $300 change fee. I suppose a small price to pay for a guaranteed upgrade! Thanks again
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Old Jul 27, 18, 9:07 pm
  #53  
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Originally Posted by doverflyer View Post
I'm not sure I want to play the waiting game... I'm considering changing my flight to the previous day which has R6 right now.
R4 . . . better move fast.

Originally Posted by doverflyer View Post
But then I get hit with the $300 change fee. I suppose a small price to pay for a guaranteed upgrade!
Are you sure change fee isn't $120? UA has reduced it on most TPAC W/V/Q fares.
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Old Jul 27, 18, 9:12 pm
  #54  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
R4 . . . better move fast.


Are you sure change fee isn't $120? UA has reduced it on most TPAC W/V/Q fares.
Darn... it says $300 to change when I look online. Maybe I should call the 1K desk?
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Old Jul 27, 18, 9:26 pm
  #55  
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Originally Posted by doverflyer View Post
Darn... it says $300 to change when I look online. Maybe I should call the 1K desk?
You may have purchased before the fares changed.
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Old Jul 28, 18, 9:07 am
  #56  
 
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Earlier I mentioned that I put in for a $600 plus 35K upgrade from LAX-TLV. Even though I was fairly sure it was going to clear, I was just able to buy up to business for both ways for $2200 more. That is obviously slightly more than if I applied the upgrade (i.e., $1200 plus 70K miles) but not much and I have the seats I want, etc. I actually was not sure I was going to upgrade on the return but why not. I think I got a good deal. It is a long flight and I really like the Polaris on 777-300ER. Soon the route will go back to the 787 and then the upgrade is less exciting for me.

Trying to rationalize purchasing business. Still new territory for me.

Thanks for all the help!
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Old Jul 28, 18, 9:13 am
  #57  
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Originally Posted by daisyatl View Post
I was just able to buy up to business for both ways for $2200 more. That is obviously slightly more than if I applied the upgrade (i.e., $1200 plus 70K miles)
Actually about a wash if you value the miles at 1.5 cpm (which is where I peg them). I would have done same.
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Old Jul 28, 18, 9:25 am
  #58  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
Actually about a wash if you value the miles at 1.5 cpm (which is where I peg them). I would have done same.
Thanks! I figured maybe the same. I guess it is just more out of pocket when you pay straight cash. But I do get the PQD and PQM. My problem is that I will likely have a lot of PQM (over 100K) but will need to splurge a bit to get the $12K PQD before the end of the year for 1K. I may go for it, just to have it for one year.
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Old Jul 28, 18, 1:22 pm
  #59  
 
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Originally Posted by daisyatl View Post
Thanks! I figured maybe the same. I guess it is just more out of pocket when you pay straight cash. But I do get the PQD and PQM. My problem is that I will likely have a lot of PQM (over 100K) but will need to splurge a bit to get the $12K PQD before the end of the year for 1K. I may go for it, just to have it for one year.
Totally agree, I would have jumped on that for sure. Long flight and Polaris why not. As Kacee noted it is basically a wash dollar wise. Add to that you need to add to you PQD for 1K status and it is a no brainer. I have had my mileage +$ upgrades NOT clear when I thought they would and have ended up in the back for similarly long flights, not fun and too old for that now. Have a nice trip!
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Old Jul 28, 18, 2:18 pm
  #60  
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Originally Posted by daisyatl View Post
I guess it is just more out of pocket when you pay straight cash. But I do get the PQD and PQM.
Plus, if anything goes wrong, there will be no arguing whether you're entitled to be rebooked in business class, even on partner airlines.
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