mahasamatman

But if you don't try, the odds are 0% for both,

PsiFighter37

I was going to say that 3% was quite precise.

fumje

0% is pretty precise too, and perhaps even more accurate.

findark

I know these are all LH flights, but considering using a GPU and wondering if any TATL warriors want to weigh in on the most likely to clear (if any). I know seatmaps are not a great measure of load, but LH also does really funny things with their inventory. All for a 1K on an E fare, GPU applied:

20-Jan SEA-FRA LH491: J9 Z9 P0 G4 E1, 19 out of 67 J seats not assigned, 0 PE seats unassigned (hopefully overbooked in PE?)
20-Jan LAX-MUC LH453: J9 Z8 P0 G4 E2, 21 out of 56 J seats not assigned, 7 PE seats unassigned (I like this timing a lot better)
20-Jan SFO-FRA LH455: J9 C0 Z0 G4 E0, 38 out of 78 J seats not assigned, 5 PE seats unassigned (this is probably a no-go unless I get E space, but still completely baffled what's going on here - the hope in me says they forgot to sell the seats, but SFO is an upgrade graveyard...)

Instinct says take the SEA flight, but LAX-MUC is much better timed.

Also if anyone happens to know of P/R/I space I might have missed for TATL crossing that day, but I think I searched it all.

Kacee

Apart from SEA's reputation as one of the easiest LH awards, looks to me like LAX and SEA are a wash (with both being pretty good odds).

I don't have specific experience with these flights. I did see a comment recently by one of the knowledgable LH members to the effect that LH prefers UA GPUs over their own eVouchers because UA gives them cash.

findark

Yeah, SEA/YVR-FRA and v/v are my go-to source of cheap TATL crossings and LH seems to confirm this by sticking their no-F 747s on the routes. LAX is a super weird market; sometimes it's a ghost town as far as loads and other times its overflowing with premium demand. What spooks me is there are some other flights I checked out in the 15-20 unassigned seat range with J < 9... and somehow the idea of PE being overbooked seems to up the odds of an upgrade (if I were really gambling I could shoot for an op-up but I have 1K friends with expiring GPUs ). I'm not a big fan of trying to get to sleep on the early TATLs, but would rather do any schedule in J.

Ironically, P space is even harder to find (was also considering bouncing off OTP although the schedule in/out of there is poor) but LH seems to like zeroing out lower buckets close-in just because. I'm also a bit concerned as it's the week of Davos but I don't know how many of those type fly commercial anyway.

Kacee

Yes, you should rely on inventory over assigned seats. Which says SFO is a big "no."

Fwiw, that fare also works to BEG.

Polytonic

Does anyone know how hard it is to clear SNA-EWR or reverse? I have an upcoming trip that can book into W -- worth asking around for an RPU?

Kacee

In generally that is an exceptionally difficult route to upgrade, though your odds may vary depending on the specific flight.

There is no minimum fare to use an RPU, so if you do this, there's no need to pay up for the W.

findark

Indeed - just worried one/both of SEA and LAX are at or barely over nine which would decrease my optimism. What I wouldn't give for a true load count..

Saw that. About $50 more each way, but save that back about equally for a shorter flight on dash trash (final destination is VIE). There are evening tags on OS for both, but getting out to catch a TATL sequence in the morning is basically impossible unless looking at non-*A tags like JU/RO. It's also a work trip, at which point the split-ticket plus possible overnight in strange city is possibly pushing it for even my (very flexible) employer. The nail in the coffin was not getting P space on any decent TATL (IAD-FRA is about all that's left). Was hoping to use paid J as a way to get on the 77W SFO-FRA but it has such comically lopsided loads (J3 C0 and every middle in the back empty) that I'm starting to think we need to see 100+ Polaris seats on that thing to get upgrades. There's a lot more midwinter J demand to Europe than I give credit for.

TK has been tantalizing me with great fares, but earns zero PQD and awful PQM

Kacee

There was a bunch of R in mid-February. But in general it's always been a tough upgrade.

Sounds like PE + GPU is the right call given lack of good P fare options.

NoDestinations

I had booked this for January, using a GPU and clearing into PN class. When I had booked, I called UA and the agent basically said "We have both PN and R space available a for several days out of each week in January and February, just pick a date and we'll see if it works". I was able to instantly clear for LAX-SFO-FRA into PN (R was also available). I think this route is about changing your dates to get instantly confirmable space... don't want to play the waitlist game.

NoDestinations

OK! I have booked on 6/1 TLV-SFO. I am waitlisted for PN class (not R) as a Global Services Global Premier Upgrade cert... it is a Friday, which by the current loads, looks booked full. Should I change to different dates to see if I can get something better? I am on a W fare.

fumje

Wouldn't worry. Not sure why you say it looks booked full; 955 on 1 June has 5 booked in J.

Polytonic

Ah, yeah I figured as much. Flying out on a Friday or Saturday evening and back to SNA on a Monday evening most likely -- I suspect Monday or Saturday probably easiest to clear, but considering how half the plane boards in Group 1 out of SNA ...

Website doesn't show me anything less than a W or V fare in this case. I didn't know RPUs had no fare class restriction though; good to know!