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Old Feb 8, 2018, 1:50 pm

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Oct 16, 2023, 1:42 pm
  #46  
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Between DCA and IAD
Programs: UA 1K MM; Hilton Diamond
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Originally Posted by tstauck
Personally I like LAX better, as there's simply a better chance of no weather delays in November vs SFO.

That said, no options through DEN or IAH? Seems like you're back tracking a good 1 hour+ with the itinerary you're looking at. I'm assuming you're looking for more sleep time for those red-eyes.
And a flight leaving 7pm or later; I don't think there were any other options east post 4pm or so.

WX is a good point. I have watched a confirmed F seat vanish more than once as my inbound flight to SFO got delayed due to SFO weather, then the following day there was no F available anywhere in sight.
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Old Oct 16, 2023, 1:51 pm
  #47  
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
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Posts: 147
UA181 FRA-DEN on 10/25
I know seat maps aren't always the best barometer but showing good availability on ExpertMode. Booked two K fares and applied PP months ago. I want to be optimistic but have long since learned to not get my hopes up... what are my odds?


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Old Oct 17, 2023, 6:38 am
  #48  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
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Chance Me
UA363 EWR—HNL on 10/19. 2 pax booked in PE. 1K applied PP.

We are 1 and 2 on the upgrade list. The first class cabin was previously booked out but this morning it looks like 2 seats opened up (cancellations? flyers decided to change to different flight?)

If this works this will be the first time I’ve cleared PP all year. What do y’all think?
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Old Oct 17, 2023, 8:45 am
  #49  
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Originally Posted by XUEC
UA363 EWR—HNL on 10/19. 2 pax booked in PE. 1K applied PP.

We are 1 and 2 on the upgrade list. The first class cabin was previously booked out but this morning it looks like 2 seats opened up (cancellations? flyers decided to change to different flight?)

If this works this will be the first time I’ve cleared PP all year. What do y’all think?
Unless some people decide to buy up (likely), your chances are good. I'd say your chances are at best, 50/50. Don't start dancing until you get a seat assignment in F.
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Old Oct 17, 2023, 8:54 am
  #50  
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Originally Posted by XUEC
If this works this will be the first time I’ve cleared PP all year. What do y’all think?
UA won't process the last two upgrades until right around the time boarding starts, and it's considerably more likely that UA sells one or both of those two seats than that they go to current 1 & 2 on the list. But good luck - it could happen.
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Old Oct 17, 2023, 8:58 am
  #51  
 
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Originally Posted by IAH-OIL-TRASH
Unless some people decide to buy up (likely), your chances are good. I'd say your chances are at best, 50/50. Don't start dancing until you get a seat assignment in F.
I actually tried to buy up myself but didn’t have the option to. Not sure if this is because I already bought up to PE or glitch in the system.
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Old Oct 17, 2023, 9:06 am
  #52  
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Originally Posted by XUEC
I actually tried to buy up myself but didn’t have the option to. Not sure if this is because I already bought up to PE or glitch in the system.
​​​​​​Was your PlusPoints attached when you were looking for a buyup?
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Old Oct 17, 2023, 9:11 am
  #53  
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Originally Posted by XUEC
I actually tried to buy up myself but didn’t have the option to. Not sure if this is because I already bought up to PE or glitch in the system.
Once check-in starts, you'll be able to see the day of departure upgrade pricing. Pricing you see now (by either removing the upgrade request or calling an agent) will not be good - they're likely to be a fare differential w/ only 2 seats left. At least PremiumPlus seats are tolerable for the daytime flight.
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Old Oct 17, 2023, 9:49 am
  #54  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
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Anyone have some insight on UA 29 to Singapore on 10/25?

Mrs UAgeek is in PE on an R fare using my PP. she’s a 1K on My Million Mile status.

flights showing J9 C9 D9 but Z0 P0 and no PN PZ IN or I.

Even though it’s not perfect seatmap says 24/48 reserved.

The more interesting thing however is that the system shows O9 A9 R8 but the PE seatmap shows only 2 open seats.

I know they can over sell but if they sold 9 more seats in PE they’d have to upgrade at least 7

Not going on this run that often just wondering if there is a shot or will she die on the WL?
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Old Oct 17, 2023, 10:42 am
  #55  
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Originally Posted by UAgeek71
The more interesting thing however is that the system shows O9 A9 R8 but the PE seatmap shows only 2 open seats.

I know they can over sell but if they sold 9 more seats in PE they’d have to upgrade at least 7
They will happily op-up 7 pax (or actually, collect the upgrades first) to sell the seats.
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Old Oct 17, 2023, 10:50 am
  #56  
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Originally Posted by findark
They will happily op-up 7 pax (or actually, collect the upgrades first) to sell the seats.
Yeah, on this route in particular UA will heavily oversell PE with R fares when the load is light in J. It's generally a very good sign for upgrades from PE.
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Old Oct 17, 2023, 6:46 pm
  #57  
 
Join Date: Oct 2023
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Originally Posted by merges
What are my chances?

UA 875 SFO-HND Fri Oct 20
Purchased Economy (L)
Waitlisted for MileagePlus Upgrade Award to Polaris (30k + $600)
Platinum Status

18 "available" Polaris seats and 0 "available" Premium Plus seats on seat map.
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P8 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O3 ON3 A2 R0 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W8 S5 T3 L1 K0 G0 XN4 X0
I changed to a SFO-NRT flight, UA 837. But now I'm confused about the relationship between Flight Status capacity numbers, the seat map, and fare availability.

Flight Status Polaris upgrade list shows:
Capacity 60
Booked 58

Seat map shows 15 open Polaris seats.

Booking page shows availability:
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z5 ZN5 P3 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O0 ON0 A0 R0 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S8 T7 L5 K4 G3 XN7 X4

What's the actual availability of J seats? Based on J9, it can't be true that 58 Polaris seats are "booked," right? Am I missing something?
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Old Oct 17, 2023, 7:39 pm
  #58  
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Originally Posted by merges
I changed to a SFO-NRT flight, UA 837. But now I'm confused about the relationship between Flight Status capacity numbers, the seat map, and fare availability.

Flight Status Polaris upgrade list shows:
Capacity 60
Booked 58

Seat map shows 15 open Polaris seats.

Booking page shows availability:
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z5 ZN5 P3 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O0 ON0 A0 R0 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S8 T7 L5 K4 G3 XN7 X4

What's the actual availability of J seats? Based on J9, it can't be true that 58 Polaris seats are "booked," right? Am I missing something?
The flight status is messed up, unfortunately. At J9, there are definitely at least 9 seats available. UA does not systemically oversell J, and certainly not by 7.
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Old Oct 18, 2023, 12:59 am
  #59  
 
Join Date: May 2021
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Trying to estimate chance of PPs clearing on UA 981 DUB-ORD on a 752. Does this flight require row 4 A&B for relief pilot crew rest? With such a small cabin, two seats missing reduces chances dramatically
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Old Oct 18, 2023, 8:33 am
  #60  
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Programs: UA Platinum, SPG Gold, Hilton Gold
Posts: 204
Any thoughts on chances of UG on UA 5 11/1? I am 1K but waitlisted from W fare for both PremPlus and Polaris using husband’s GS PP.

2 weeks out and seems like P9 is a good sign…
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