Feb 8, 2018, 1:50 pm
Last edit by: WineCountryUA
Archive thread
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
Related thread -
Ways to search for upgrade space at booking?
Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
Decoding the alphabet soup - fare buckets for UA
Expert Mode Update: better upgrade visibility and opt-in to see fare bucket data.
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
Related thread -
Ways to search for upgrade space at booking?
Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
Decoding the alphabet soup - fare buckets for UA
Expert Mode Update: better upgrade visibility and opt-in to see fare bucket data.
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Oct 11, 2023, 2:30 pm
#31
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 622
Colleague is flying IAD-CDG on 11/11 (Saturday night), booked 16/50, P9PN0PZ0, as it has been for months, and the colleague (plat) is #12 on the waitlist. Not sure how loads will change as we get close in, since it's off-peak and a weekend flight. What are the chances?
Oct 11, 2023, 4:31 pm
#32
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: SFO, TPE, HNL
Programs: UA GS 4MM, RCC life member (paid), Marriott Lifetime Titanium, Hyatt Globalist, CLEAR
Posts: 1,822
I thought within D-24h the upgrade goes by the order of individuals on the WL, regardless of whether there are companions. So if only one space is open, it goes to #1, Namely, it should not skip #1-#2 to go the next single traveler. Prior to D-24h the #1-#2 will be skipped, but not within D-24h. Am I wrong?
Oct 12, 2023, 8:29 am
#33
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,452
I thought within D-24h the upgrade goes by the order of individuals on the WL, regardless of whether there are companions. So if only one space is open, it goes to #1, Namely, it should not skip #1-#2 to go the next single traveler. Prior to D-24h the #1-#2 will be skipped, but not within D-24h. Am I wrong?
Oct 12, 2023, 10:01 am
#34
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 622
Oct 12, 2023, 10:35 am
#35
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,400
I thought within D-24h the upgrade goes by the order of individuals on the WL, regardless of whether there are companions. So if only one space is open, it goes to #1, Namely, it should not skip #1-#2 to go the next single traveler. Prior to D-24h the #1-#2 will be skipped, but not within D-24h. Am I wrong?
Oct 12, 2023, 10:51 am
#36
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Washington, D.C.
Programs: AA PLT (MM), UA 1K, Marriott Ti, IHG Diamond
Posts: 929
Can we all agree for OP or a mod to change the topic of this thread
From: "[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight"
To: "[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
"
From: "[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight"
To: "[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
"
Oct 13, 2023, 1:26 pm
#37
Join Date: Sep 2023
Posts: 3
No — I/we didn't turn it down. We were never offered the chance (I would have given it to my dad and then STEWED the whole flight). Just before boarding, the upgrade screen listed us as #1-2 and then the #3 name showed as upgrade confirmed.
Oct 13, 2023, 1:38 pm
#38
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,400
Weird. That is contrary to policy unless #3 bought up, which can still lead to the checkmark and thus is confusing.
Oct 13, 2023, 2:06 pm
#39
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Honolulu Harbor
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 15,019
Don’t underestimate the number of people who at/near boarding who will buy up if they see no chance otherwise. Being #1/2 on waitlist with 1 or 2 seats left is primed for disappointment. #1/2 w/ 5 seats left in less that 8 hours, I’m feeling better.
Even if I’m #5 w/ 7 seats on a flight in two days, I’m assuming I’m out of luck. I’m starting to watch buy-ups at that time.
Even if I’m #5 w/ 7 seats on a flight in two days, I’m assuming I’m out of luck. I’m starting to watch buy-ups at that time.
Oct 13, 2023, 2:55 pm
#40
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: SRQ
Programs: UA 1K, Marriott LT Titanium
Posts: 232
Chance of upgrading on SFO-MCO on the redeye 10/31? I’m a 1K under K fare. Traveling with the gf so she bugging me hoping it clears. Like 12 seats left on the 757-3. I see a lot of economy plus seats empty which tells me not many elites on it currently. Which could change. I give it maybe 20% it clears
Oct 13, 2023, 3:19 pm
#41
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 622
Chance of upgrading on SFO-MCO on the redeye 10/31? I’m a 1K under K fare. Traveling with the gf so she bugging me hoping it clears. Like 12 seats left on the 757-3. I see a lot of economy plus seats empty which tells me not many elites on it currently. Which could change. I give it maybe 20% it clears
Oct 16, 2023, 1:00 pm
#43
Moderator, Omni, Omni/PR, Omni/Games, FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Between DCA and IAD
Programs: UA 1K MM; Hilton Diamond
Posts: 67,129
Looking at 2 options for PHX-xxx-IAD for the night of 11/10 (Friday, but a holiday):
Thoughts? I know it's way too early to talk loads reasonably, and yes, it's a holiday (Veteran's Day), but Friday night transcon redeyes are something I usually have decent luck at.
- PHX-LAX-IAD
- PHX-SFO-IAD
Thoughts? I know it's way too early to talk loads reasonably, and yes, it's a holiday (Veteran's Day), but Friday night transcon redeyes are something I usually have decent luck at.
Oct 16, 2023, 1:34 pm
#44
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: SBA
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, Marriott Gold, IHG Plat, Hertz PC
Posts: 941
Looking at 2 options for PHX-xxx-IAD for the night of 11/10 (Friday, but a holiday):
Thoughts? I know it's way too early to talk loads reasonably, and yes, it's a holiday (Veteran's Day), but Friday night transcon redeyes are something I usually have decent luck at.
- PHX-LAX-IAD
- PHX-SFO-IAD
Thoughts? I know it's way too early to talk loads reasonably, and yes, it's a holiday (Veteran's Day), but Friday night transcon redeyes are something I usually have decent luck at.
That said, no options through DEN or IAH? Seems like you're back tracking a good 1 hour+ with the itinerary you're looking at. I'm assuming you're looking for more sleep time for those red-eyes.
Oct 16, 2023, 1:42 pm
#45
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Los Angeles, California
Programs: United, American, Delta, Hyatt, Hilton, Hertz, Marriott
Posts: 14,801
Looking at 2 options for PHX-xxx-IAD for the night of 11/10 (Friday, but a holiday):
Thoughts? I know it's way too early to talk loads reasonably, and yes, it's a holiday (Veteran's Day), but Friday night transcon redeyes are something I usually have decent luck at.
- PHX-LAX-IAD
- PHX-SFO-IAD
Thoughts? I know it's way too early to talk loads reasonably, and yes, it's a holiday (Veteran's Day), but Friday night transcon redeyes are something I usually have decent luck at.
I don’t like direct flights. For the MM program, you’re going to end up with the miles from PHX to IAD. If taking an earlier PHX-LAX flight works, I’d take that option.