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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Jan 27, 20, 8:50 pm
  #16  
 
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On UA 1 Jan 28 SFO-SIN about 26 hours from departure. 1k on a K fare. Right now, 8 open seats and I am number 2. Two days ago, the flight was PN1 so presumably all GS should have been upgraded. Looks like three people got checked into business in the last 4 hours without appearing on the UG list (TODs ?)

Should be looking good, right? Or does this flight gets tons of TODs at the last minute?

Last edited by 1k650; Jan 27, 20 at 9:36 pm
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Old Jan 27, 20, 8:56 pm
  #17  
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To put it simply, United has a algorithm that they think will tell them about how many seats the flight will sell. Now if the flight is doing worse then expected they will open up Instant upgrade space so you can confirm your upgrade. However if itís not they will not open any up. As many others have said most business class seats sell within about 1 month-2 weeks so if United knows that especially for this route they will not open up space. So I would check back around that time and if itís not open feel free to go to the ď chances of an upgradeĒ thread. As for everyone talking about those letters like J Z P PN PZ those are basically Unitedís way of showing how the flight is performing. So J is there highest priced ticket Z is lower P is even lower. So if they think they can sell all of their seats at the most exapensive price they will only open up J however if they donít they might open up Z also and maybe if the flight isnít doing as well as hoped they will open up P their cheap seat priced ticket. Now PN and PZ are the same concept but for upgrade so They will open up PN if P is open but they donít think they can sell all of the seats. However only Unitedís best elites can upgrade into PN everyone else has to upgrade into PZ. So some flights will have PN5 and PZ0 because they only want to upgrade their best flyers. Now if they know they wonít sell the seats for sure they will open up PZ or at least they should. Hopefully that wasnít to confusing.
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Old Jan 27, 20, 9:32 pm
  #18  
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Originally Posted by 1k650 View Post
On UA 1 Jan 28 SFO-SIN about 26 hours from departure. 1k on a K fare. Right now, 9 open seats and I am number 2. Two days ago, the flight was PN1 so presumably all GS should have been upgraded.

Should be looking good, right? Or does this flight gets tons of TODs at the last minute?
Good chance you clear.

Asia travel way down. Plus it's CNY.
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Old Jan 27, 20, 10:13 pm
  #19  
 
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Frankly, if you really want to sit up front you're better off with a TOD upgrade at checkin (buy up offer to business class at checkin) or calling and asking what it would take to upfare from your econ fare to P (lowest business fare) since that flight is showing P9. I'm not saying there's zero chance a miles + copay will clear but you're more likely to hit at Mega Millions or Powerball.

Oh, and be advised if you let the miles + co pay ride and it doesn't clear you'll have to call in and have them manually refund your miles. It won't happen automatically. They should have already been deducted.
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Old Jan 27, 20, 10:34 pm
  #20  
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Originally Posted by gmt4 View Post
I'm not saying there's zero chance a miles + copay will clear but you're more likely to hit at Mega Millions or Powerball.
:-) That's a wee bit exaggerated. IAH-SYD, midweek, in shoulder season is not a million-to-one upgrade. I'm not making any guarantees, but it's entirely possible that OP's upgrade clears, even without any UA status.
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Old Jan 27, 20, 11:20 pm
  #21  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
Good chance you clear.

Asia travel way down. Plus it's CNY.
Thanks. 8 seats now, so one more TOD. Keeping fingers crossed.

Datapoint: Cleared at T-22 hours. In fact, all platinums and golds cleared too, and 1 silver was still on the waitlist (2 open seats) (I know the status because a UA phone agent told me).

Thanks.
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Last edited by 1k650; Jan 28, 20 at 2:13 am
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Old Jan 28, 20, 1:49 am
  #22  
 
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When does United PZ fare class upgrade get waitlist cleared?

Hello,

When should I expect this waitlist to be cleared as I do not see myself on the upgrade waitlist T-3 days? Randomly happens? T-24hrs? T-3hrs?

Any insights is appreciated on understanding about PZ fare class and waitlist combined.
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Old Jan 28, 20, 3:05 am
  #23  
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
:-) That's a wee bit exaggerated. IAH-SYD, midweek, in shoulder season is not a million-to-one upgrade. I'm not making any guarantees, but it's entirely possible that OP's upgrade clears, even without any UA status.
I would agree that the OP has a decent chance of an upgrade, given that itís mid week and from IAH. That said, if I was in his/her situation, I would call to find out how much a P upfare would be.
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Old Jan 28, 20, 4:09 am
  #24  
 
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Welcome to flyertalk!

What flight route is this? What kind of upgrade (PlusPoints, Mileage Upgrade, CPU) are you hoping to get?

If you do not see yourself on the waitlist, you are probably not correctly waitlisted. UA has been having problems with this for the past couple of months.
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Old Jan 28, 20, 4:37 am
  #25  
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When United thinks they're better off taking your upgrade rather than selling the seat.
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Old Jan 28, 20, 7:57 am
  #26  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
:-) That's a wee bit exaggerated. IAH-SYD, midweek, in shoulder season is not a million-to-one upgrade. I'm not making any guarantees, but it's entirely possible that OP's upgrade clears, even without any UA status.
Of any UA route down to oz I would agree that IAH-SYD would probably have the best odds. Hopefully the OP posts back in a few months to let us know how it went.
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Old Jan 28, 20, 9:05 am
  #27  
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Originally Posted by halls120 View Post
That said, if I was in his/her situation, I would call to find out how much a P upfare would be.
UA business class fares to Australia are rarely cheap. If OP's route is actually IAH-SYD, the P fare is about $3550 each way, plus taxes and fuel surcharge. OP can certainly call, but I wouldn't expect to be blown away by the upfare offer. There might be a discounted offer available within the check-in window, but let's hope it doesn't come to that.
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Old Jan 28, 20, 9:12 am
  #28  
 
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Originally Posted by canadiancow View Post
Flight is PN0 with a GS waitlisted
Originally Posted by fumje View Post
How do you know one of the waitlisted passengers is GS?

There are 5 on the waitlist now, and it is booked 13/48.
Originally Posted by canadiancow View Post
I have lots of friends who fly UA

9 on WL. None are GS.
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Old Jan 28, 20, 9:39 am
  #29  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
UA business class fares to Australia are rarely cheap. If OP's route is actually IAH-SYD, the P fare is about $3550 each way, plus taxes and fuel surcharge. OP can certainly call, but I wouldn't expect to be blown away by the upfare offer. There might be a discounted offer available within the check-in window, but let's hope it doesn't come to that.
Another thing to consider would be the big jump in extra PQP from an upfare which would not be realized with the upgrade. Taking into account of course that: 1. OP cares about working toward status and PQP matter; 2. OP really, really wants a guaranteed seat up front barring all else; 3. OP wants to consider shelling out that kind of dough.
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Old Jan 28, 20, 9:43 am
  #30  
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Originally Posted by gmt4 View Post
Another thing to consider would be the big jump in extra PQP from an upfare which would not be realized with the upgrade.
... I mean, UA has said that the co-pays will count toward PQP. And the rest of the "extra PQP" is matched 1:1 with "extra dollars," so there's no real advantage to buying up to P as opposed to using that money for another trip somewhere.
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