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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Jan 11, 20, 1:16 am
  #271  
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
They will absolutely dump cheap TODs if they think that they can sell them.
Will they? I was hoping for this when I flew SFO-NRT in a not-so-full plane on an R fare. The price never dropped below a few thousand dollars IIRC.

I'm not sure if business class even filled but the flight could not have been particularly elite-heavy -- I noticed that entire rows of E+ were unoccupied. Everyone was crammed into the crappy seats at the back of the plane and there were rows of empty E+ seats at the front with the little amenity bags untouched.
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Old Jan 11, 20, 2:29 am
  #272  
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Originally Posted by VegasGambler View Post
Will they? I was hoping for this when I flew SFO-NRT in a not-so-full plane on an R fare. The price never dropped below a few thousand dollars IIRC.

I'm not sure if business class even filled but the flight could not have been particularly elite-heavy -- I noticed that entire rows of E+ were unoccupied. Everyone was crammed into the crappy seats at the back of the plane and there were rows of empty E+ seats at the front with the little amenity bags untouched.
I guess nothing is ever 100% certain, so I probably shouldnít have said ďabsolutely,Ē but, they do, more often than not. If you look at the TOD thread, TATL upgrades are commonly around $850, and TPAC upgrades are commonly around $1000.
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Old Jan 11, 20, 2:45 am
  #273  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
I guess nothing is ever 100% certain, so I probably shouldnít have said ďabsolutely,Ē but, they do, more often than not. If you look at the TOD thread, TATL upgrades are commonly around $850, and TPAC upgrades are commonly around $1000.
I guess, I don't consider that "cheap" from PE. But, doesn't it depend on the purchased fare class? I paid less than that ($649) for an upgrade from O on SFO-FRA (long TATL -- not much shorter than a TPAC, and more importantly, business-heavy). I saw the same deal flying FRA-SFO (O class, $649) as well, so I assume that this is a common offers on that route. They were not TOD though -- they were available as a paid upgrade right after booking.
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Old Jan 11, 20, 5:13 am
  #274  
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Chicago
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Newly minted Platinum here. I have never used instruments or points to upgrade.

I booked a W fare for Chicago to Shanghai in March (on a Saturday) for work. I used my (all) 40 plus points to wait list for Business seat.

PZ=0.

My questions are these:

1. Since PZ=0, does that mean nothing opens up until day of departure? Or if its possible that United opens up PZ, do they do it often or is it one of those things where its super rare for a Trans Pacific flight? I would think even if they opened up PZ it would almost always show 0 if it instant clears anyone that was waiting?

2. Is there anyway to see where I am on the Waitlist in advance?

3. Am I silly to even think there is a even a chance as a Platinum on W fare?
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Old Jan 11, 20, 9:25 am
  #275  
 
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Originally Posted by VegasGambler View Post
I guess, I don't consider that "cheap" from PE. But, doesn't it depend on the purchased fare class? I paid less than that ($649) for an upgrade from O on SFO-FRA (long TATL -- not much shorter than a TPAC, and more importantly, business-heavy). I saw the same deal flying FRA-SFO (O class, $649) as well, so I assume that this is a common offers on that route. They were not TOD though -- they were available as a paid upgrade right after booking.
They will adjust the offer downward when they think they can't sell the seats, but there is a floor to what they'll offer, and I am pretty sure that floor depends on your fare class (cheaper offers for higher fare classes). That was likely also at play in your R SFO-NRT / O SFO-FRA example.
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Old Jan 11, 20, 9:30 am
  #276  
 
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Originally Posted by Winkdaddy View Post
Newly minted Platinum here. I have never used instruments or points to upgrade.

I booked a W fare for Chicago to Shanghai in March (on a Saturday) for work. I used my (all) 40 plus points to wait list for Business seat.

PZ=0.

My questions are these:

1. Since PZ=0, does that mean nothing opens up until day of departure? Or if its possible that United opens up PZ, do they do it often or is it one of those things where its super rare for a Trans Pacific flight? I would think even if they opened up PZ it would almost always show 0 if it instant clears anyone that was waiting?

2. Is there anyway to see where I am on the Waitlist in advance?

3. Am I silly to even think there is a even a chance as a Platinum on W fare?
1. PZ=0 now only means nothing available now. It can open later. What do P and PN show now? (Enable expert mode to check.) You should search inventory regularly, because sometimes the waitlist does not work correctly, in which case you need to call.

2. You can change the date on your phone (or computer) and then look up the flight status.

3. For ORD-PVG I don't think it's hopeless, but the current inventory and booked count could change that answer.
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Old Jan 11, 20, 9:53 am
  #277  
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Originally Posted by VegasGambler View Post
I guess, I don't consider that "cheap" from PE. But, doesn't it depend on the purchased fare class? I paid less than that ($649) for an upgrade from O on SFO-FRA (long TATL -- not much shorter than a TPAC, and more importantly, business-heavy). I saw the same deal flying FRA-SFO (O class, $649) as well, so I assume that this is a common offers on that route. They were not TOD though -- they were available as a paid upgrade right after booking.
Originally Posted by fumje View Post
They will adjust the offer downward when they think they can't sell the seats, but there is a floor to what they'll offer, and I am pretty sure that floor depends on your fare class (cheaper offers for higher fare classes). That was likely also at play in your R SFO-NRT / O SFO-FRA example.
The numbers I quoted were upgrade prices from Economy. I havenít seen enough offers from PE to be able to comment on the prices there. That said, the spread between economy and PE is small enough on some routes that I donít see it making much difference. (Iíve booked two Y/PE tickets so far this year; in each case, PZ was available, and turning one leg into PE only added $150 but saved 50 PlusPoints). And, if you look at retail J prices, or even the co-pays for miles + cash upgrades, itís clear that UA considers PE to be much closer to Y than it is to J ó especially if youíre booked into R.
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Old Jan 11, 20, 12:13 pm
  #278  
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: San Francisco, CA
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1/18/2020 Saturday UA871 SFO-TPE, a week from today

Currently:
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0
O9 ON9 A9 R2 RN0
Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S7 T4 L3 K0 G0 N9 XN1 X0

On Polaris waiting list with 40 PlusPoints (W class ticket)

Chance of clear and how soon?
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Old Jan 11, 20, 1:23 pm
  #279  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
You can adjust the date on your device, and the app will show you the list. Of course, the list is badly broken right now; about all Iíd rely on is the number of booked / blocked seats and the size of the list.

(I wouldnít do this on a device where I cared about the calendar, as you may miss alarms).
Thanks for the tip jsloan. I think I will just wait until tomorrow when the flight status is visible without messing with the date on my device. I really can't afford to miss any alarms at this point. I will advise what it looks like tomorrow.
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Old Jan 12, 20, 12:03 pm
  #280  
 
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Originally Posted by bluedemon211 View Post
Looking for the sage's crystal ball thoughts here. HNL-NRT #903 on Tuesday 14 January. Current load shows the following:
J9JN9C9D9Z9ZN9P0PN0PZ0IN0I0...... all other buckets are 9, including PP. I'm booked on a paid R and am a 1K. Seat map (which I know is immaterial) shows 16 J seats not selected.

I'm at a loss to understand why the UG isn't cleared yet. Yeah I know they want to sell whatever they can, but this is not a business heavy route by any means so last minute J purchases seem unlikely. Unless they're hoping for a bunch of business people with families to buy last minute, it looks like there is a good chance this goes out with available J seats....... unless they're going to dump a bunch of cheap TOD at T-24. I'm probably waaaaaaay over analyzing things, but what do you think my chances are to clear? TYIA.
Update at T-48 and the UG lists are visible:

PP Cap 24, 5 sold

J, Cap 50, 35 sold, 3 blocked

I am currently #2 on J UG list with a paid R ticket. Inventory buckets identical to last several days (i.e. Everything except P, PN, PZ, IN, I =9.

I am a little surprised this hasn't cleared yet. 15 seats remain available in J at T-48. They have blocked 3 which I believe means they are willing to keep selling Y and might Op Up 3 people. Keeping my fingers crossed that this clears soon. A few good seats still available and I would hate to lose them to cheap TOD's before they process the list. Thoughts on clearing?
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Old Jan 12, 20, 5:16 pm
  #281  
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Originally Posted by bluedemon211 View Post
I am a little surprised this hasn't cleared yet. 15 seats remain available in J at T-48. They have blocked 3 which I believe means they are willing to keep selling Y and might Op Up 3 people. Keeping my fingers crossed that this clears soon. A few good seats still available and I would hate to lose them to cheap TOD's before they process the list. Thoughts on clearing?
Youíre almost certain to clear. I donít think those three blocked seats are for an oversold Y cabin; they wouldnít op-up anybody from Y to J if there are 19 seats free in P+. I think those three blocked are for the three of you that are on the list.

I canít tell you why UA hasnít processed the upgrades completely, but it looks like theyíre preparing to do so.
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Old Jan 12, 20, 6:12 pm
  #282  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
Youíre almost certain to clear. I donít think those three blocked seats are for an oversold Y cabin; they wouldnít op-up anybody from Y to J if there are 19 seats free in P+. I think those three blocked are for the three of you that are on the list.

I canít tell you why UA hasnít processed the upgrades completely, but it looks like theyíre preparing to do so.
Thanks jsloan, I appreciate your feedback. Excellent catch! With 19 available in PP, that's where the OP UP people would end up. You're right that it makes more sense that it's for the 3 of us on the current UG list. Fingers crossed it happens soon.
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Old Jan 13, 20, 1:34 am
  #283  
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
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Looking for any possible flights from SFO-SIN in February or March for my parents (no status). I'm a 1K.

Currently UA29 on 2/18 looks good: J9/JN9/C9/D9/Z9/ZN9/P9/PN9/PZ0

On a related note, I logged in today to find that UA29 a day later also changed from PN0 to PN9 overnight. This leads me to believe that, at least for now they're updating the inventory around TOD~37 days.

Would it be advisable to make dummy bookings on 2/19 and 2/20, see if the upgrades to clear, and then cancel if they don't?

And I'm sorry if this has been answered (new to this forum), but is there a way to check the waitlist without making a booking and updating you phone date/time settings?

Last edited by Double IPA; Jan 13, 20 at 1:35 am Reason: Typo
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Old Jan 13, 20, 1:41 am
  #284  
 
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Originally Posted by Double IPA View Post
Looking for any possible flights from SFO-SIN in February or March for my parents (no status). I'm a 1K.

Currently UA29 on 2/18 looks good: J9/JN9/C9/D9/Z9/ZN9/P9/PN9/PZ0

On a related note, I logged in today to find that UA29 a day later also changed from PN0 to PN9 overnight. This leads me to believe that, at least for now they're updating the inventory around TOD~37 days.

Would it be advisable to make dummy bookings on 2/19 and 2/20, see if the upgrades to clear, and then cancel if they don't?

And I'm sorry if this has been answered (new to this forum), but is there a way to check the waitlist without making a booking and updating you phone date/time settings?
2/18. No.
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Old Jan 13, 20, 2:00 am
  #285  
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Originally Posted by Double IPA View Post
On a related note, I logged in today to find that UA29 a day later also changed from PN0 to PN9 overnight. This leads me to believe that, at least for now they're updating the inventory around TOD~37 days.
Iíve never heard of T-37 being a day of any particular significance. I suspect this is a coincidence.

Originally Posted by Double IPA View Post
Would it be advisable to make dummy bookings on 2/19 and 2/20, see if the upgrades to clear, and then cancel if they don't?
I wouldnít make a habit of it; itís a violation of UAís Contract of Carriage (booking reservations without the intention to fly them). I definitely wouldnít book them both at the same time; if youíre going to do that, donít have both open at the same time. Do 2/19 one night and 2/20 the next night.

But, opening up PN is not an indication that they will ó or will not ó have upgraded anybody into PZ at the same time.

Originally Posted by Double IPA View Post
And I'm sorry if this has been answered (new to this forum), but is there a way to check the waitlist without making a booking and updating you phone date/time settings?
No need to make a booking to see the size of the waitlist and the number of available seats. Seeing what your position is on the waitlist, if you can even trust it (you canít; itís badly broken right now), and if itís even meaningful (it isnít, because people can jump ahead of you if they have higher status or book a higher fare class), would require a booking though.
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