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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Apr 7, 19, 10:26 am   -   Wikipost
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Old Sep 10, 18, 10:26 pm
  #241  
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
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UA1 on 14 Nov (Wednesday), booked L class + MUA.
22 seats left, J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z1 ZN1 P0 PN0 R0 RN0.

Guessing it's going to come down to the wire, would getting up to Plat (from Gold) help that much? I'm ~2000 PQM short right now.

Kind of annoyed, specifically booked midweek, but it looks like Tuesday has more free space. :\
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Old Sep 10, 18, 10:35 pm
  #242  
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Originally Posted by ajgarett View Post
UA1 on 14 Nov (Wednesday), booked L class + MUA.
22 seats left, J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z1 ZN1 P0 PN0 R0 RN0.

Guessing it's going to come down to the wire
Only if you're lucky. Nine weeks out, that flight shows all signs of booking full a week or two out, with maybe a GS or two clearing at the gate.

Originally Posted by ajgarett View Post
would getting up to Plat (from Gold) help that much? I'm ~2000 PQM short right now
Probably not.

Have you looked at the upfare to P on the NRT routing? It's pretty cheap (relatively speaking).
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Old Sep 11, 18, 6:07 am
  #243  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
Yes, exactly. You'll get a pretty good sense which flights are possibles, and can then focus your maniacal checking on those

I think LAX will be your best shot, at P6 PN2. Although UA949 is not hopeless at J6 P2.
Just landed in LHR to find R5 RN5 on the LAX flight. Thanks for the help Kacee. As much as I love a nonstop and the Polaris on the 777-300, I think I'm gonna make the change.
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Old Sep 11, 18, 8:22 am
  #244  
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Originally Posted by KJ1979 View Post
Just landed in LHR to find R5 RN5 on the LAX flight. Thanks for the help Kacee. As much as I love a nonstop and the Polaris on the 777-300, I think I'm gonna make the change.
That's worth a change fee!
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Old Sep 11, 18, 10:16 am
  #245  
 
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Originally Posted by catahoulafriend View Post
Hi folks, I must book travel to China on 10/10, returning 10/18. Looking to buy V/W fare to apply a GPU. I can fly SEASFOPEK, or SEASFOPVG. Right now, 889 (SFO to PEK) is showing 25/60 booked and 857 (SFO to PVG) is 9/48 booked (data from cablepick). Return seems wide open, although there is no R listed available (this flight must be PEKSFO to accommodate my schedule). Im 1K. Thoughts on the better outbound flight? Ive seen rumors of trade shows in China in October taking Polaris space on planes...dont know if this comes into play. Thank you, for your valuable advice!
Just circling back on this post from yesterday. Trying to gauge your thoughts on a booking for an upcoming trip to China, Oct. 10, where I want to apply a GPU to a V fare. Expert mode indicates the following: SFO to PEK #888 (J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P1, PN0, R0). Alternatively, SFO to PVG #857 (J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P10, PN0, R0). The numbers drop slightly if I search SEA to PEK, but Im not concerned about clearing into first on the SEA to SFO leg. I recognize that the 789 (UA857) has twelve less Polaris seats than the 773 (UA888) however more seats are currently booked to Beijing. Personally, I would prefer the PEK route but am willing to go PVG if the GPU clears. Thank you, for your opinions.
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Old Sep 11, 18, 10:33 am
  #246  
 
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Originally Posted by catahoulafriend View Post
Just circling back on this post from yesterday. Trying to gauge your thoughts on a booking for an upcoming trip to China, Oct. 10, where I want to apply a GPU to a V fare. Expert mode indicates the following: SFO to PEK #888 (J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P1, PN0, R0). Alternatively, SFO to PVG #857 (J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P10, PN0, R0). The numbers drop slightly if I search SEA to PEK, but Im not concerned about clearing into first on the SEA to SFO leg. I recognize that the 789 (UA857) has twelve less Polaris seats than the 773 (UA888) however more seats are currently booked to Beijing. Personally, I would prefer the PEK route but am willing to go PVG if the GPU clears. Thank you, for your opinions.
Is the inventory for 857 P9, P1 or P0? It seems like only a marginal difference in chance to me from the numbers so far, and my general impression is that SFO-PEK might be a little easier than SFO-PVG.
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Old Sep 11, 18, 10:43 am
  #247  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
Probably not.

Have you looked at the upfare to P on the NRT routing? It's pretty cheap (relatively speaking).
I paid for business class on the flight back - extra ~$1500 vs the ~$2500 for the outgoing leg. Should have been a sign that demand was high I guess.

I see the fare difference is $1900 (it went down?), so I'm just going to wait it out. Maybe I get it, maybe I don't - I'm visiting family instead of work, so I can sleep in the next day in any case.

Thanks!
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Old Sep 11, 18, 11:33 am
  #248  
 
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Originally Posted by fumje View Post
Is the inventory for 857 P9, P1 or P0? It seems like only a marginal difference in chance to me from the numbers so far, and my general impression is that SFO-PEK might be a little easier than SFO-PVG.
Excuse me, typo...for 857 should read "P0". Thank you, for your perspective on the SFO-PEK. I was just a little surprised to see SFO-PVG with so much room in Polaris.
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Old Sep 11, 18, 11:36 am
  #249  
 
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Originally Posted by catahoulafriend View Post
Excuse me, typo...for 857 should read "P0". Thank you, for your perspective on the SFO-PEK. I was just a little surprised to see SFO-PVG with so much room in Polaris.
In that case I would say SFO-PEK definitely but only by a small margin.
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Old Sep 11, 18, 12:06 pm
  #250  
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Originally Posted by catahoulafriend View Post
Excuse me, typo...for 857 should read "P0". Thank you, for your perspective on the SFO-PEK. I was just a little surprised to see SFO-PVG with so much room in Polaris.
There are two non-stop flights per day SFO-PVG and only one per day SFO-PEK.
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Old Sep 11, 18, 12:52 pm
  #251  
 
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What about flight UA869 on Oct 22nd from SFO to HKG? In a V class fare at booking and on the waitlist with the GPU.
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Old Sep 11, 18, 4:15 pm
  #252  
 
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Originally Posted by 1KChinito View Post
There are two non-stop flights per day SFO-PVG and only one per day SFO-PEK.
Correct: 857 (1:20 pm departure) and 891 (4:25 pm departure), both flying 789 aircraft. However, 891 is already booked 28/48, while 857 is 8/48, so I imagine that the better possibility of GPU upgrade is 857. Meanwhile, 888 just moved to 26/60 booked, so six fewer Polaris seats than 857 at the moment...
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Old Sep 22, 18, 12:34 pm
  #253  
 
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Flying IAD-FRA next Saturday on a 777. Showing F0 FN0 A0 ON0 O0 J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P5 PN1 R0 RN0. There's no way F is sold out, right? Perhaps blocking it for a switch to a 787? Showing 12 seats and I think 1 is blocked so maybe 11. Waitlisted with a mileage upgrade. Thoughts on it clearing?

Last edited by njcommodore; Sep 22, 18 at 12:39 pm
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Old Sep 22, 18, 1:51 pm
  #254  
 
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Originally Posted by njcommodore View Post
Flying IAD-FRA next Saturday on a 777. Showing F0 FN0 A0 ON0 O0 J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P5 PN1 R0 RN0. There's no way F is sold out, right? Perhaps blocking it for a switch to a 787? Showing 12 seats and I think 1 is blocked so maybe 11. Waitlisted with a mileage upgrade. Thoughts on it clearing?
There are no United 772s with 12 Polaris First seats. Are you sure that you are flying United?

The 772s have 8 Polaris First seats. F0 does not mean that F is sold out. It just means that there are not selling F fares for if they switch to a converted 772 with the new Polaris Business seats and no Polaris First seats.

If you are waitlisted for an upgrade to the Polaris First seats there's good chances of clearing but usually it happens at the gate.

I have to edit my answer because with the reference to the F fare I think I misunderstood your question. So, it seems that you are waitlisted for a Polaris Business seat. There are 29/40 sold. I think that it's going to be not so sure as you are only Silver. They can still sell tickets. Passengers waitlisted with GPUs would be higher status and would have purchased a higher fare (I don't know your fare but usually with miles + copay people don't purchase W or above). And then there's the problem of passengers taking the TODs.

Last edited by StuckinITH; Sep 22, 18 at 2:27 pm
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Old Sep 22, 18, 3:11 pm
  #255  
 
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If you are waitlisted from J to F, you can consider the F cabin empty and your odds are pretty much guaranteed. If you are waitlisted from Y to J, you can consider the F cabin full since UA is not selling it and will not op-up J pax just to clear a Y to J upgrade.
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