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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Apr 7, 19, 10:26 am   -   Wikipost
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Old Sep 6, 18, 2:05 pm
  #226  
 
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I'm 1K and flying next Friday September 14th EWR-FRA UA 960 on a Q fare. Yesterday it was at J9 today its J6 but its showing more than 6 seats open. I was hoping with J9 yesterday that my odds were good but I'm not so sure now.
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Old Sep 6, 18, 2:13 pm
  #227  
 
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Originally Posted by mike2003242 View Post
I'm 1K and flying next Friday September 14th EWR-FRA UA 960 on a Q fare. Yesterday it was at J9 today its J6 but its showing more than 6 seats open. I was hoping with J9 yesterday that my odds were good but I'm not so sure now.
Business is sold 32/39. Does not look too good. I would avoid Fridays or weekends in general. I know it's not so easy to do when traveling for work but to and from Germany I had more upgrade success mid-weeks and most often I clear some weeks or months before the flights.
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Old Sep 6, 18, 8:58 pm
  #228  
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Originally Posted by mike2003242 View Post
I was hoping with J9 yesterday that my odds were good but I'm not so sure now.
J is not an inventory bucket that tells us much of anything about upgrade odds. P and PN availability are good indicators, Z0 ZN0 are negative indicators. Beyond that, bookings is a much more informative figure than the J inventory number.

I would agree with StuckinITH, this one is not great odds with 32/39 booked (though not hopeless). Friday night in September is always going to be tough.
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Old Sep 7, 18, 10:04 am
  #229  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
J is not an inventory bucket that tells us much of anything about upgrade odds. P and PN availability are good indicators, Z0 ZN0 are negative indicators. Beyond that, bookings is a much more informative figure than the J inventory number.

I would agree with StuckinITH, this one is not great odds with 32/39 booked (though not hopeless). Friday night in September is always going to be tough.
Is this because the lower the fare bucket available, the more likely they are to open R space? So, Z0 is bad because if they feel no need to open up deep discount buckets, they are less likely to ever open R space? As the flight gets closer with unsold inventory, do they typically start going up the alphabet in terms of cheaper buckets or is it totally route dependent?

Thanks!
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Old Sep 7, 18, 10:17 am
  #230  
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Originally Posted by fx12002 View Post
Is this because the lower the fare bucket available, the more likely they are to open R space? So, Z0 is bad because if they feel no need to open up deep discount buckets, they are less likely to ever open R space? As the flight gets closer with unsold inventory, do they typically start going up the alphabet in terms of cheaper buckets or is it totally route dependent?
Yes, Z0 is bad because it means UA thinks it can sell out at D or higher.

You will often see UA open cheaper buckets closer to departure in order to sell unsold seats, but it is really dependent on route and flight. The progression you want to see is P9=>PN9, as that strongly indicates R is next.
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Old Sep 7, 18, 11:31 am
  #231  
 
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Originally Posted by fx12002 View Post
Is this because the lower the fare bucket available, the more likely they are to open R space? So, Z0 is bad because if they feel no need to open up deep discount buckets, they are less likely to ever open R space? As the flight gets closer with unsold inventory, do they typically start going up the alphabet in terms of cheaper buckets or is it totally route dependent?

Thanks!
Kacee has given a good explanation; however, technically its not up the alphabet but rather down the fare ladder.
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Old Sep 7, 18, 11:57 am
  #232  
 
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Originally Posted by mike2003242 View Post
I'm 1K and flying next Friday September 14th EWR-FRA UA 960 on a Q fare. Yesterday it was at J9 today its J6 but its showing more than 6 seats open. I was hoping with J9 yesterday that my odds were good but I'm not so sure now.
The news are getting a little better. Today it shows only 28/39 sold. I have to look if they are opening cheaper fares for Polaris Business.

It's still P0, PN0 and obviously R0 but they have opened Z fares albeit at a price more expensive than yesterday which may make sense as it's a flight one week away but I wonder if they have cheaper Z fares if the passenger is going further East or is not starting at EWR.

Last edited by StuckinITH; Sep 7, 18 at 12:04 pm
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Old Sep 8, 18, 4:29 pm
  #233  
 
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Originally Posted by StuckinITH View Post
The news are getting a little better. Today it shows only 28/39 sold. I have to look if they are opening cheaper fares for Polaris Business.

It's still P0, PN0 and obviously R0 but they have opened Z fares albeit at a price more expensive than yesterday which may make sense as it's a flight one week away but I wonder if they have cheaper Z fares if the passenger is going further East or is not starting at EWR.
ugh, my plans changed now I'm flying IAH-FRA on the 23rd, odds dont look that great on this one either 37 out of 50 sold with D=4 and Z=0.
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Old Sep 10, 18, 10:29 am
  #234  
 
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Hi folks, I must book travel to China on 10/10, returning 10/18. Looking to buy V/W fare to apply a GPU. I can fly SEA—SFO—PEK, or SEA—SFO—PVG. Right now, 889 (SFO to PEK) is showing 25/60 booked and 857 (SFO to PVG) is 9/48 booked (data from cablepick). Return seems wide open, although there is no R listed available (this flight must be PEK—SFO to accommodate my schedule). I’m 1K. Thoughts on the better outbound flight? I’ve seen rumors of trade shows in China in October taking Polaris space on planes...don’t know if this comes into play. Thank you, for your valuable advice!
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Old Sep 10, 18, 1:03 pm
  #235  
 
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Hey everyone. Here's my situation.

Flying LHR - SFO on 9/15. Current itinerary has me on flight 949 out of LHR. 1K status and have a B fare and GPU is waitlisted since 6/15. Currently it looks like there are 6 seats unsold (J6 C6 D6 Z4 P2). Thinking I may be pretty high due to the B fare, but then again these LHR - SFO flights can disappear overnight.

Thinking of switching to another flight such as 959 LHR - ORD which looks like it has 12 seats available. Not the Polaris hard product, but would gladly take it vs flying in E+.

Is changing a good move or should I hope that my fare and time on the list will get me on upgraded on the nonstop?

Last edited by KJ1979; Sep 10, 18 at 4:20 pm
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Old Sep 10, 18, 2:23 pm
  #236  
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Originally Posted by KJ1979 View Post
Is changing a good move or should I hope that my fare and time on the list will get me on upgraded on the nonstop?
I would never pay a change fee unless I could change into open R.

I would watch for R on alternative flights, particularly within your SDC window.
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Old Sep 10, 18, 4:15 pm
  #237  
 
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Thanks, Kacee.

Maybe I'm mistaken, but doesn't the SDC window screw with my GPU and run the risk of not even making it to the gate list? Happy to be wrong about that
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Old Sep 10, 18, 4:19 pm
  #238  
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Originally Posted by KJ1979 View Post
Maybe I'm mistaken, but doesn't the SDC window screw with my GPU and run the risk of not even making it to the gate list? Happy to be wrong about that
I'm not sure what you're asking. The rules don't permit waitlisting within T-24, so you would only SDC to clear into open R. You would have to call to do that.
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Old Sep 10, 18, 4:30 pm
  #239  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
I'm not sure what you're asking. The rules don't permit waitlisting within T-24, so you would only SDC to clear into open R. You would have to call to do that.
Sorry, was unclear on the process. So basically I just need to be maniacally checking for R on all flights over the next few days. If I see it, then call up and ask to be moved to the flight in question? That answers my concern about SDC and waitlist, makes sense. Thanks for helping a noob
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Old Sep 10, 18, 4:59 pm
  #240  
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Originally Posted by KJ1979 View Post
So basically I just need to be maniacally checking for R on all flights over the next few days. If I see it, then call up and ask to be moved to the flight in question?
Yes, exactly. You'll get a pretty good sense which flights are possibles, and can then focus your maniacal checking on those

I think LAX will be your best shot, at P6 PN2. Although UA949 is not hopeless at J6 P2.
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