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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

Old Dec 5, 2023, 4:29 pm
  #196  
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: ORF, RIC
Programs: UA LT 1K, 3 MM; Marriott Titanium; IHG Platinum
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Originally Posted by Mike Jacoubowsky
The chances of not clearing approach zero, I get that... UA 869 SFO-HKG 12/7. 50 Polaris seats, only 23 booked, and I've seen nothing change in the waitlist in the past 30 hours. Sitting at #4 & 5. Only reason it matters is that there are 3 sets left of center seats parallel, best for couple traveling together. Just seems odd they don't allocate upgrades for Plat yet.

There are two flights daily SFO-HKG, both lightly loaded. The later flight does have one allocated upgrade (maybe the only GS between the two flights?). Similar situation on day earlier flight. One Polaris upgrade allocated, 50 total seats, 37 booked.

Nothing to see here, move along...
Because UA IT gets the pleasure of torturing😂😂
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Old Dec 5, 2023, 5:16 pm
  #197  
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Originally Posted by Mike Jacoubowsky
The chances of not clearing approach zero, I get that... UA 869 SFO-HKG 12/7. 50 Polaris seats, only 23 booked, and I've seen nothing change in the waitlist in the past 30 hours....
19 seats were available about 36 hours out for today's 11:35am departure. I sponsored 2 w/ PPs and they were at #2/3 for Polaris and they got theirs then. But absolutely no upgrades in week before, when at least 21 seats were available to begin with. UA just isn't clearing upgrades.

As far as I could tell, there were only net two buyups and/or new bookings in that week. Seems like not a whole lot of last-minute bookings for the flight.
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Last edited by IAH-OIL-TRASH; Dec 5, 2023 at 5:29 pm
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Old Dec 5, 2023, 5:24 pm
  #198  
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: PHX
Programs: UA 1KMM, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, AVIS President's Club
Posts: 100
I am trying to better understand the upgrade process. How does the below happen where there is a difference between the listed amount of booked seats and booking space in the Polaris cabin?

First snip below is from the booking availability (one way, and just the specific segment I am watching) and second snip is from the Flight Upgrade Status on the website. Obviously this is for the same flight and departure is currently around 48 hours out.

Appreciate any input or clarification other can provide.


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Old Dec 5, 2023, 5:33 pm
  #199  
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There are 7 Polaris seats available to fill and UA (at this point) is willing to sell 7 Polaris fares or 6 Polaris fares and one PremiumPlus fare (which they are overbooking). A seat map may actually show more than 7 open seats if they've been overselling PP prior to your fare table snapshot.

If UA sells no more tickets or buyups, there should available for upgrades a minimum of 7 Polaris seats plus Polaris seats put aside for PP oversell (if any) .

Maybe crew rest accounts for extra seats and 42 is actually the number of passenger-occupiable seats?
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Last edited by IAH-OIL-TRASH; Dec 5, 2023 at 5:41 pm
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Old Dec 5, 2023, 7:56 pm
  #200  
 
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Originally Posted by IAH-OIL-TRASH
There are 7 Polaris seats available to fill and UA (at this point) is willing to sell 7 Polaris fares or 6 Polaris fares and one PremiumPlus fare (which they are overbooking). A seat map may actually show more than 7 open seats if they've been overselling PP prior to your fare table snapshot.

If UA sells no more tickets or buyups, there should available for upgrades a minimum of 7 Polaris seats plus Polaris seats put aside for PP oversell (if any) .

Maybe crew rest accounts for extra seats and 42 is actually the number of passenger-occupiable seats?
That explains much, thank you! There are many more seats showing available on the seat map that the screen shot shows.

I appreciate the information.
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Old Dec 5, 2023, 9:55 pm
  #201  
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Originally Posted by PHXonUA
That explains much, thank you! There are many more seats showing available on the seat map that the screen shot shows.

I appreciate the information.
I would not rely on seat map as the sole indicator. Bookings from third party, for example, will not have seats selected by default.

An open seat map provides a lot of choices for seat selection, but most inventory, the more accurate read, have been spoken for on this particular flight. Good luck.
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Old Dec 6, 2023, 7:53 am
  #202  
 
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Originally Posted by Repooc17
I would not rely on seat map as the sole indicator. Bookings from third party, for example, will not have seats selected by default.

An open seat map provides a lot of choices for seat selection, but most inventory, the more accurate read, have been spoken for on this particular flight. Good luck.
Yes, I have learned from reading this forum that seat map doesn't reflect actual availability. In this case our upgrade cleared around 36 hours out and now and when you go into the flight status seat map (top screenshot) it is very different than the change seats map (bottom screenshot) accessed from the reservation.
Another data point (as if it was needed) that the seatmap isn't a true representation of what is actually available.



Flight Status Seat Map

Change Seats Seat Map

Thanks you again for the information shared.
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Old Dec 6, 2023, 9:00 am
  #203  
 
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Turn off silent mode if you have upgrades pending

Our upgrades for 869, SFO-HKG (Polaris) came through last night, 11:06pm (about 36 hours prior to flight). Thankfully I spotted it and selected seats; had I waited until morning, remaining seats were scattered about the cabin. Instead, I was able to get the middle side-by-side seats with the movable divider.

Now I have to figure out if it's worth the hassle to see if I can have the PNR split and change one of us from miles-based upgrade (plus $450) to PlusPoints. I've only got 40, not enough for both of us.
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Last edited by Mike Jacoubowsky; Dec 6, 2023 at 9:15 am Reason: Added note about splitting PNR and changing one upgrade to PP
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Old Dec 6, 2023, 3:42 pm
  #204  
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
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I keep seeing awards space show up and go away without anyone being upgraded. Top 2 on upgrade list are in one PNR while 3rd is on a single PNR. Top 3 are all GS.

One morning PN1 showed up. That afternoon it was back to PN0. The next morning it was PN2 and by mid afternoon it was PN0 again. I called and confirmed PN2 was showing up for them too when it was showing up for me.

Nobody got upgraded and the amount of reserved seats didnt change.

Anyone know why this is going on?
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Old Dec 7, 2023, 11:02 am
  #205  
 
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My wife and daughter are travelling in 15 days (Dec 22) to DFW-SFO-SYD (2005/863). Paid W fares with no status (will earn silver on this trip). On the international leg (only one we care about), J8 JN8 C8 D8 Z8 ZN8 P8 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O9 ON9 A9 R9 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 XN9 X9. Selected miles+copay waitlist at booking back in September. My experience travelling to SYD this time of year (as a former NRSA and later revenue passenger) is that there are almost always seats for every type of upgrade if there are no cancellations. The actual loads as of now show (8/0/27) available on the domestic leg and (24/10/71) on the TPAC. We really are hoping this will clear before there aren't any seat pairs left so they don't end up separated. Given the light loads in PP, I have to think this is a pretty good chance of making it by the T-24 sweep? Thoughts?

Last edited by mariol; Dec 7, 2023 at 11:11 am
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Old Dec 7, 2023, 11:28 am
  #206  
 
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Originally Posted by lewinr
Hi All, first time using plus points (I let most of mine expire because there never seemed to be a good chance of using them.)

Flying UA 860 GRU-IAD on Dec 21
Boeing 767-400ER, 33 business class seats, 17 still open (according to seat map)
My status is Platinum, I'm flying on a Premium Economy Q class fare.
Expert mode fare classes show: J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O9 ON9 A9 R0 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W8 S3 T0 L0 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

Would appreciate your expert opinion of my chances... I have other options for a better flight in economy class, so if my chances are really low I might cancel this ticket and buy a different one.

Thank you
would still appreciate anybody's insight into this. thank you!
(Fare classes now showing as
J9
JN9
C9
D9
Z9
ZN9
P9
PN0
PZ0
IN0
I0
O9
ON9
A9
R0
RN0
Y9
YN9
B9
M9
E9
U9
H9
HN9
Q9
V9
W9
S8
T2
L0
K0
G0
N9
XN0
X0
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Old Dec 7, 2023, 11:31 am
  #207  
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Q fare is not premium economy. Premium economy is O, A, or R.

Either way, your chance is good.
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Old Dec 7, 2023, 11:57 am
  #208  
 
Join Date: Mar 2023
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What are the chances for 1K upgrade with companion on 12/9 MCO-DEN flight at 8:30pm. My girlfriend and I are at #5 and #6 on upgrade list with 7 open seats.G type fare
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Old Dec 7, 2023, 12:30 pm
  #209  
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Originally Posted by mariol
My wife and daughter are travelling in 15 days (Dec 22) to DFW-SFO-SYD (2005/863). Paid W fares with no status (will earn silver on this trip). On the international leg (only one we care about), J8 JN8 C8 D8 Z8 ZN8 P8 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O9 ON9 A9 R9 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 XN9 X9. Selected miles+copay waitlist at booking back in September. My experience travelling to SYD this time of year (as a former NRSA and later revenue passenger) is that there are almost always seats for every type of upgrade if there are no cancellations. The actual loads as of now show (8/0/27) available on the domestic leg and (24/10/71) on the TPAC. We really are hoping this will clear before there aren't any seat pairs left so they don't end up separated. Given the light loads in PP, I have to think this is a pretty good chance of making it by the T-24 sweep? Thoughts?
Your chances are so-so w/o status. Upgrades into PremPlus will probably not happen at all until day before flight at the earliest.
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Old Dec 7, 2023, 12:31 pm
  #210  
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Originally Posted by elmira56925
What are the chances for 1K upgrade with companion on 12/9 MCO-DEN flight at 8:30pm. My girlfriend and I are at #5 and #6 on upgrade list with 7 open seats….G type fare
You're sitting at the position of waitlist most affected by buy-ups. Call it maybe slightly better 50/50.
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