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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Apr 7, 19, 10:26 am   -   Wikipost
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Old Aug 24, 18, 10:44 am
  #166  
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Originally Posted by YogiORD View Post
You are correct that the United App is more accurate. The UA 881 for Aug 25 is now showing Polaris as 31/40 +1 blocked. Economy on standby on App is showing as full. So they have to bump into J and F. I am more optimistic that my 1K GPU may actually clear, but not sure why United has to wait till the very last minute. Cheers and thanks
If I was to be in your shoes here, I would hope for Y bookings to block out the rest of J and F, as this will maximize your chances to clear your upgrade by preventing anyone from booking into those blocked seats with revenue. This will, unfortunately, likely happen at t<24 .... they will clear some at check-in, and the remainder likely at the gate.

Also a good chance to take a voucher on an oversold flight... typically when this happens, the entire flight will be booked several over capacity, and there are some good offers on these int'l flights when everyone shows up.
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Old Aug 24, 18, 1:00 pm
  #167  
 
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Upgrade went through T-24hrs. Flight shows 37/40 with 3 upgrades gone through. I guess the blocked seats were waiting for the upgrades to check in. Thanks for the help from this forum. Cheers all
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Old Aug 25, 18, 7:10 am
  #168  
 
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Originally Posted by tstauck View Post
I recall it was about the same. In fact, I didn't even waitlist until about 5 days out because my return was already upgraded (R space at booking), so I figured I would suck it up and do economy out and First coming back. But realizing the miles would be refunded if I didn't clear, I would have nothing to lose.

It went from about 15 available five days out to 8 one day out, and then cleared at two hours. I was walking by the UC in LAX on my way to the boarding area when I noticed it cleared, so swung in there quick to start taking advantage of the perks lol!
Upgrade cleared this morning (yay!). Yesterday it was showing 11 seats left, weird that previously greyed-out seats were the ones assigned to me. This route seems to be great for awards.
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Old Aug 26, 18, 12:39 pm
  #169  
 
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SFO-PEK upgrade cleared onboard

SFO- PEK Aug 26 V ó> R waitlisted

booked 10 days out with no R1 and 12 biz seats available. Three days before the flight showing 57/60 booked, two days before showed 55/60 booked. On flight day showed 58/60 booked, Iím #1 on upgrade list. One hour bf the flight it showed booked full with 58 checked in. After I boarded the plane , 30 mins before take off, United app showed I got upgraded! Now Iím sitting in the front! What a roller coaster!
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Old Aug 26, 18, 1:56 pm
  #170  
 
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Originally Posted by Kevin Lou View Post
SFO- PEK Aug 26 V —> R waitlisted

booked 10 days out with no R1 and 12 biz seats available. Three days before the flight showing 57/60 booked, two days before showed 55/60 booked. On flight day showed 58/60 booked, I’m #1 on upgrade list. One hour bf the flight it showed booked full with 58 checked in. After I boarded the plane , 30 mins before take off, United app showed I got upgraded! Now I’m sitting in the front! What a roller coaster!
Welcome to FlyerTalk and especially the United threads!

Better late than never. Enjoy the flight! But it did make you lose the opportunity to enjoy the SFO Polaris Lounge.
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Old Aug 26, 18, 8:05 pm
  #171  
 
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Flight 869 SFO > HKG
Date: 8/29/2018
Fare Class: W
Status: 1K
Used a GPU

50/60 right now, I'd like to clear by the time I get to SFO so I can use the lounge.

Right now it looks like:
J9 JN9 C8 D7 Z6 ZN6 P5 PN0 R0 RN0
Econ is wide open, still G9

Last edited by thejaredhuang; Aug 27, 18 at 3:44 pm
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Old Aug 27, 18, 4:33 pm
  #172  
 
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SFO-FRA separate GPU odds

Anyone care to speculate on the odds of these upgrades? Using GPUs for me (1K) and my girlfriend (Platinum), booked on separate reservations for the flights below. I'm particularly worried that I might clear the upgrade and she will not.

Friday, Sept 7. UA926 SFO>FRA. W-fare. Flight status shows 41/48 booked.
J7 JN7 C6 D6 Z1 ZN1 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W7 S6 T4 L1 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

Sunday, Sept 16. UA975 GVA>IAD. W-fare. Flight status shows 22/30 booked.
J7 JN7 C7 D7 Z2 ZN2 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G0 N9 XN9 X3

Seems like SFO-FRA on a Friday is tough, but would like your thoughts. Thanks!
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Old Aug 27, 18, 7:01 pm
  #173  
 
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Originally Posted by Mason22222 View Post
Anyone care to speculate on the odds of these upgrades? Using GPUs for me (1K) and my girlfriend (Platinum), booked on separate reservations for the flights below. I'm particularly worried that I might clear the upgrade and she will not.

Friday, Sept 7. UA926 SFO>FRA. W-fare. Flight status shows 41/48 booked.
J7 JN7 C6 D6 Z1 ZN1 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W7 S6 T4 L1 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

Sunday, Sept 16. UA975 GVA>IAD. W-fare. Flight status shows 22/30 booked.
J7 JN7 C7 D7 Z2 ZN2 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G0 N9 XN9 X3

Seems like SFO-FRA on a Friday is tough, but would like your thoughts. Thanks!
Welcome to FlyerTalk and especially the United threads!

Weekend travel is always more difficult for upgrades to clear and there's still plenty of time for people to purchase business class tickets. At this point, I would make sure that you both have seats that you are comfortable flying in. For sure, it would not be good if you chose seats together and your girlfriend is the one having a middle seat as that would not be comfortable at all if you get upgraded and she does not. I would choose two aisles (at least that is what my wife (Platinum) and I do. Another thing to start thinking about now: if only you get upgraded, will you give your seat to your girlfriend?

Anyways, at this point there's no way to know how many passengers are waitlisted for the upgrades (GS and higher fares). And with those numbers you will have to worry about passengers being offered TODs and taking them at check-in.

Last edited by StuckinITH; Aug 27, 18 at 7:06 pm
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Old Aug 27, 18, 7:41 pm
  #174  
 
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I'm Silver, thinking of doing an SDC to 1981 LAX/IAH next Tuesday in the hopes of a CPU. I've been watching it for the last couple of weeks and it's often gone out with everyone on the upgrade list cleared.

Tomorrow's flight has looked odd though. Yesterday it showed 33/48 booked. Today the booked count has gone up steadily; right now it's 44/48. The odd thing is that nobody has appeared on the upgrade list. Are silvers getting instant upgrades at check-in, or is something else going on? It's F4 A3 JN4 C4 D3 Z2 ZN2 P1 PN0 R0 RN0.
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Old Aug 27, 18, 8:04 pm
  #175  
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Originally Posted by ajGoes View Post
... Tomorrow's flight has looked odd though. Yesterday it showed 33/48 booked. Today the booked count has gone up steadily; right now it's 44/48. The odd thing is that nobody has appeared on the upgrade list. Are silvers getting instant upgrades at check-in, or is something else going on? It's F4 A3 JN4 C4 D3 Z2 ZN2 P1 PN0 R0 RN0.
As reported elsewhere ( https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unit...-upgrades.html ) those upgraded off the hidden, pre-gate list are not shown as upgraded. Those can happen as last as a few hours prior to departure. This lack of upgrade information has really placed us in the dark on what has happened except at the gate. Also, cash upgrades could have happened or some new seats have been sold at the last minute.
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Old Aug 28, 18, 10:12 am
  #176  
 
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What is the general consensus on the best days to fly to Europe to get R space? Wednesday? Tuesday? I'm looking to fly to Europe in Sep or Oct and am looking for R space for the night flight over. I am willing to go where the R space is in Europe, and I want to confirm the upgrade at booking. Any routes that are better than others? I'm willing to fly from IAD or DCA to EWR, ORD, or even IAH for a better chance. Thanks in advance. I'm looking very hard but can't find much. I guess it hasn't opened yet.
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Old Aug 28, 18, 10:49 am
  #177  
 
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I would like some advice from the FT GPU experts . I am planning to book a YUL-NRT trip (V class) in November. I am willing to route through pretty much any UA hub. Leaving on a Thursday and coming back on Saturday a week after. On the outbound EWR-NRT does not seem to have any R availability but SFO-NRT does (R=1). Is it worth making the transcon in Economy/Domestic First to confirm the shorter Polaris flight SFO-NRT rather than wait for EWR-NRT?

On the way back there is no R availability at all on any route. I don't mind missing the upgrade, but I do dread the 10 across E+. Are Saturday upgrades on Polaris flights (EWR/SFO) a possibility at all out of NRT or should I take a safe bet and go with NRT-IAH with the old E+ seats and very low chances of upgrading?
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Old Aug 28, 18, 10:58 am
  #178  
 
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Originally Posted by expressboy View Post
I would like some advice from the FT GPU experts . I am planning to book a YUL-NRT trip (V class) in November. I am willing to route through pretty much any UA hub. Leaving on a Thursday and coming back on Saturday a week after. On the outbound EWR-NRT does not seem to have any R availability but SFO-NRT does (R=1). Is it worth making the transcon in Economy/Domestic First to confirm the shorter Polaris flight SFO-NRT rather than wait for EWR-NRT?

On the way back there is no R availability at all on any route. I don't mind missing the upgrade, but I do dread the 10 across E+. Are Saturday upgrades on Polaris flights (EWR/SFO) a possibility at all out of NRT or should I take a safe bet and go with NRT-IAH with the old E+ seats and very low chances of upgrading?
I would always confirm the upgrade at booking when I can. Absolutely do the SFO option if there is R space but none for EWR. No point in waitlisting for an upgrade you may never get when you have an upgrade waiting for you.

Have you tried HND instead of NRT? If you're really flexible you could also look into flying from NRT to ICN or KIX and trying from there to the US for R space. I would personally go with the old E+ seats. I would actually think IAH is an easier route to upgrade than NRT-EWR/SFO, but I am not an expert. Good luck.
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Old Aug 28, 18, 11:13 am
  #179  
 
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Originally Posted by UAL250 View Post
I would actually think IAH is an easier route to upgrade than NRT-EWR/SFO, but I am not an expert. Good luck.
IME, it's rare to find R space on NRT-IAH. When I've looked, the availability is, more-or-less in order, NRT-GUM, NRT-LAX, NRT-DEN, KIX-SFO, HND-SFO, NRT-ORD, NRT-SFO, NRT-IAD, NRT-IAH, NRT-EWR, NRT-HNL. (Admittedly, I don't always check NRT-HNL, because R space ex-HNL is so hard to find).
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Old Aug 28, 18, 11:50 am
  #180  
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Originally Posted by expressboy View Post
I would like some advice from the FT GPU experts . I am planning to book a YUL-NRT trip (V class) in November. I am willing to route through pretty much any UA hub. Leaving on a Thursday and coming back on Saturday a week after.
Lately UA has been opening R on the TPACs in the 6-8 week window, so it may be a little early to be buying flights for November if you're looking to upgrade.

It would be helpful to know the booking numbers though (Flight Status Tool). That's really critical to assessing upgrade odds.
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