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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Dec 24, 19, 12:16 pm
  #151  
 
Join Date: May 2019
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Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
I'll check out the official waitlist tonight since that's when it's officially published on the UA Flight Status pages & make the decision to strip the upgrade based on whether or not my position's improved or worsened... that way I can be targeted for check-in buyups at T-24

As for copay, the CSR mentioned that (if my upgrade clears) I'll only be charged the 30K miles & will get back the 600$ since I'm in P+ now thanks to that 5$ buyup. I'll bring it back up again with UA tonight based on what I see on the 12/27 status page.


JUL 27 was the original ticketing date. ~800$ for a 1way from LGA, stopping in DEN and SFO.
I thought there was still a co-pay from premium plus around 300 dollars if I remember correctly.
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Old Dec 24, 19, 12:19 pm
  #152  
 
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That's reassuring! Thanks! How were you able to check?
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Old Dec 24, 19, 12:26 pm
  #153  
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Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
I'll check out the official waitlist tonight since that's when it's officially published on the UA Flight Status pages & make the decision to strip the upgrade based on whether or not my position's improved or worsened... that way I can be targeted for check-in buyups at T-24
I’m not sure whether or not the list changes when it first officially appears on the website; please let us know what you find.

Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
As for copay, the CSR mentioned that (if my upgrade clears) I'll only be charged the 30K miles & will get back the 600$ since I'm in P+ now thanks to that 5$ buyup. I'll bring it back up again with UA tonight based on what I see on the 12/27 status page.
That... doesn’t sound right. I’d have expected that they’d refund the difference between the old co-pay and the new co-pay (as mentioned — not zero) immediately. I’d be very tempted to call, explain what happened, and ask for them to pull and re-apply the upgrade request.

Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
JUL 27 was the original ticketing date. ~800$ for a 1way from LGA, stopping in DEN and SFO.
According to ExpertFlyer, a one-way K fare, purchased on 7/27 for travel on 12/27, had a $950 base fare. A one-way R fare with that same purchase date cost $2448. A one-way R fare with a purchase date of 12/23 cost $2561.

You’re sure she put you in R, and not RN, right? RN would be upgrade space into P+ from economy, and the cost would have been just the 30K miles — your co-pay would be refunded if it didn’t clear to Polaris. It also wouldn’t change your spot on the upgrade list. I could see there being a $5.40 difference in taxes or something, maybe... Assuming you’re really in R, you got a fantastic deal ^

Originally Posted by united 1k flyer View Post
100% chance of clearing, only 7 on the upgrade list with 23 seats remaining. Enjoy!
There is no such thing as a 100% chance of clearing a waitlisted upgrade, although I agree that the chances look very good. However, things happen: if the upgrade isn’t cleared until the gate, a cancellation or long delay on EWR-BOM could easily lead to EWR-DEL being filled. Similarly, a cancellation on EWR-DEL 12/27 could use every seat on EWR-DEL 12/28. I agree that chances look good, though, based upon those numbers.

Originally Posted by united 1k flyer View Post
I thought there was still a co-pay from premium plus around 300 dollars if I remember correctly.
I checked; it’s actually $450 on that route.
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Old Dec 24, 19, 12:47 pm
  #154  
 
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I'm flying SFO-DEL on 1/5 and wondering which option is better: $911 TOD offer from G to Polaris, or have a friend waitlist me with a GPU (no status currently). Right now, there are 6 people on the waitlist and 18 available seats.
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Old Dec 24, 19, 4:02 pm
  #155  
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1K flying TPE-SFO-ORD in B class.

What's the best strategy for SFO-ORD, given PN0 PZ0?

PP will definitely be used for TPE-SFO, so the question is about the ORD flight.
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Old Dec 24, 19, 6:47 pm
  #156  
 
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Originally Posted by canadiancow View Post
1K flying TPE-SFO-ORD in B class.

What's the best strategy for SFO-ORD, given PN0 PZ0?

PP will definitely be used for TPE-SFO, so the question is about the ORD flight.
Don’t apply plus points instant upgrade from M B Y has higher priority

Originally Posted by airdoon View Post
I'm flying SFO-DEL on 1/5 and wondering which option is better: $911 TOD offer from G to Polaris, or have a friend waitlist me with a GPU (no status currently). Right now, there are 6 people on the waitlist and 18 available seats.
If his GPU is expiring very soon then I would advise doing that if it’s expiring 2021 then take the tod.

Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
I’m not sure whether or not the list changes when it first officially appears on the website; please let us know what you find.


That... doesn’t sound right. I’d have expected that they’d refund the difference between the old co-pay and the new co-pay (as mentioned — not zero) immediately. I’d be very tempted to call, explain what happened, and ask for them to pull and re-apply the upgrade request.


According to ExpertFlyer, a one-way K fare, purchased on 7/27 for travel on 12/27, had a $950 base fare. A one-way R fare with that same purchase date cost $2448. A one-way R fare with a purchase date of 12/23 cost $2561.

You’re sure she put you in R, and not RN, right? RN would be upgrade space into P+ from economy, and the cost would have been just the 30K miles — your co-pay would be refunded if it didn’t clear to Polaris. It also wouldn’t change your spot on the upgrade list. I could see there being a $5.40 difference in taxes or something, maybe... Assuming you’re really in R, you got a fantastic deal ^


There is no such thing as a 100% chance of clearing a waitlisted upgrade, although I agree that the chances look very good. However, things happen: if the upgrade isn’t cleared until the gate, a cancellation or long delay on EWR-BOM could easily lead to EWR-DEL being filled. Similarly, a cancellation on EWR-DEL 12/27 could use every seat on EWR-DEL 12/28. I agree that chances look good, though, based upon those numbers.


I checked; it’s actually $450 on that route.
I agree nothing is 100%. What I should have said is if the flight goes to plan then you have a very very good shot of clearing.
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Last edited by WineCountryUA; Dec 24, 19 at 10:36 pm Reason: merged consecutive posts by same member
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Old Dec 24, 19, 11:42 pm
  #157  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
I’m not sure whether or not the list changes when it first officially appears on the website; please let us know what you find.


That... doesn’t sound right. I’d have expected that they’d refund the difference between the old co-pay and the new co-pay (as mentioned — not zero) immediately. I’d be very tempted to call, explain what happened, and ask for them to pull and re-apply the upgrade request.


According to ExpertFlyer, a one-way K fare, purchased on 7/27 for travel on 12/27, had a $950 base fare. A one-way R fare with that same purchase date cost $2448. A one-way R fare with a purchase date of 12/23 cost $2561.

You’re sure she put you in R, and not RN, right? RN would be upgrade space into P+ from economy, and the cost would have been just the 30K miles — your co-pay would be refunded if it didn’t clear to Polaris. It also wouldn’t change your spot on the upgrade list. I could see there being a $5.40 difference in taxes or something, maybe... Assuming you’re really in R, you got a fantastic deal ^

I checked; it’s actually $450 on that route.
Followup: You're right. My ballpark was low- I purchased the initial ticket for ~$950 before add-ons. After my first call to UA tonight, I've discovered that I did indeed buy into normal R, not RN. The CSR offered to strip & reapply the UG for the instant $600 refund & new charge of $450, but insisted that this might negatively impact my overall standing on the "priority" waitlist (just a lofty adj., btw, not actually any priority). Part of me wants to gamble and see if this new R fare plus the reapplied UG buys me any advantage. After all, I'm #12 on a list where only 10 seats are technically even available... & chances could only decrease further as pax bite the bullet and UG for $ at check-in. If it improves my standing, great. If it worsens it, I guess I'll strip it again and prepare to open my wallet to the 1,2K$ charge at check in.
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Old Dec 25, 19, 1:47 am
  #158  
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Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
Followup: You're right. My ballpark was low- I purchased the initial ticket for ~$950 before add-ons. After my first call to UA tonight, I've discovered that I did indeed buy into normal R, not RN. The CSR offered to strip & reapply the UG for the instant $600 refund & new charge of $450, but insisted that this might negatively impact my overall standing on the "priority" waitlist (just a lofty adj., btw, not actually any priority). Part of me wants to gamble and see if this new R fare plus the reapplied UG buys me any advantage. After all, I'm #12 on a list where only 10 seats are technically even available... & chances could only decrease further as pax bite the bullet and UG for $ at check-in. If it improves my standing, great. If it worsens it, I guess I'll strip it again and prepare to open my wallet to the 1,2K$ charge at check in.
I would take the CSR upon their offer. Time added to the list is a tertiary tiebreaker, at best: status, fare class, then a few miscellaneous categories relating to credit card spending and/or participation in their preferred corporate partner program, and then finally time added to the list.
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Old Dec 25, 19, 7:43 am
  #159  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
I would take the CSR upon their offer. Time added to the list is a tertiary tiebreaker, at best: status, fare class, then a few miscellaneous categories relating to credit card spending and/or participation in their preferred corporate partner program, and then finally time added to the list.
Called in again & asked for the UG to be stripped and reapplied. CSR seemed puzzled, but offered to do it. I checked the waitlist on the app during the maneuver and my name did in fact disappear from the list, but then re-posted at the exact same slot. CSR indicated that I'd receive the 150$ refund for the difference in copay in 7 days, but I'll have cleared (or not) by then ...it'd be hard/irrelevant to deduce the outcome by then in the post-mortem. A previous CSR said this would be an immediate refund of $600 and a new charge of $450, so part of me is wondering if this latest CSR performing the strip was just placating me. If not, this would indicate that the waitlist was coincidentally in accurate order and 1-11 were non-status A/Os (as none of them cleared when PN was *wide* open) and #s 13+ were less than a K fare perhaps?
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Old Dec 25, 19, 12:00 pm
  #160  
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Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
If not, this would indicate that the waitlist was coincidentally in accurate order and 1-11 were non-status A/Os (as none of them cleared when PN was *wide* open) and #s 13+ were less than a K fare perhaps?
PN is only available for Global Services instruments.

The only way for the list to be correct is if 1-11 are A/O/R — any status level — and 13+ are K/G with no status. (And, I’m not even sure G fares are filed to New Zealand).

That is so extremely improbable that I am at a loss beyond “I don’t think the list is currently working correctly.” I was really expecting that you’d move back into the list at a higher position. It was almost better before UA started exposing the list, as bad information is worse than no information at all.
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Old Dec 26, 19, 6:42 pm
  #161  
 
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Question: I'm just randomly looking at UA48's seat map this upcoming Saturday and I see some rare PN seats at this time at 6 PN seats. But I go over to the waitlist and I see no one has been cleared yet. Does this mean everyone on the waitlist currently is sitting on a 1K upgrade/mileage upgrade? Or could they still be holding off any GS upgrades on that waitlist despite there being PN6? Thanks!
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Old Dec 26, 19, 7:06 pm
  #162  
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Originally Posted by flyingrohit View Post
Question: I'm just randomly looking at UA48's seat map this upcoming Saturday and I see some rare PN seats at this time at 6 PN seats. But I go over to the waitlist and I see no one has been cleared yet. Does this mean everyone on the waitlist currently is sitting on a 1K upgrade/mileage upgrade? Or could they still be holding off any GS upgrades on that waitlist despite there being PN6? Thanks!
If you see PN6, any PNR with six or fewer Global Services instruments should be able to clear. (That is: a party of size 7 wouldn’t clear, but a party of size 6 or fewer would).

However, the system doesn’t always run immediately, so it’s possible that there are still some Global Services members listed on the waitlist, even though there shouldn’t be. They’d get upgraded during the next sweep, in most cases. (Sometimes, a record being out of sync seems to make the process hang).
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Old Dec 27, 19, 5:02 am
  #163  
 
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Hi all

what are your thoughts on UA99 MEL-LAX on Jan 1st? I am considering changing into this flight because I have zero chance on my currently booked option of SYD-SFO or anything else leaving out of SYD that day, although I have a very very good chance of PY on my current flight. Change fee plus flight to Melbourne would be approx C$500 in total. Don’t care about respective plus points usage since all 40 will expire at the end of Jan

currently there are 10 seats available with a family of four (literally, FAM) on the list. I guess I have no way of knowing whether me being a 1k on a V fare would be ahead or behind them.


Last edited by david_oz; Dec 27, 19 at 5:11 am Reason: Wording
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Old Dec 27, 19, 6:09 am
  #164  
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Originally Posted by david_oz View Post
Hi all

what are your thoughts on UA99 MEL-LAX on Jan 1st? I am considering changing into this flight because I have zero chance on my currently booked option of SYD-SFO or anything else leaving out of SYD that day, although I have a very very good chance of PY on my current flight. Change fee plus flight to Melbourne would be approx C$500 in total. Don’t care about respective plus points usage since all 40 will expire at the end of Jan

currently there are 10 seats available with a family of four (literally, FAM) on the list. I guess I have no way of knowing whether me being a 1k on a V fare would be ahead or behind them.
My general advice is never to pay a change fee to waitlist an instrument. If you ended up behind the FAM family, I wouldn’t like your chances to clear very much.
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Old Dec 27, 19, 9:32 am
  #165  
 
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Originally Posted by david_oz View Post
Hi all

what are your thoughts on UA99 MEL-LAX on Jan 1st? I am considering changing into this flight because I have zero chance on my currently booked option of SYD-SFO or anything else leaving out of SYD that day, although I have a very very good chance of PY on my current flight. Change fee plus flight to Melbourne would be approx C$500 in total. Don’t care about respective plus points usage since all 40 will expire at the end of Jan

currently there are 10 seats available with a family of four (literally, FAM) on the list. I guess I have no way of knowing whether me being a 1k on a V fare would be ahead or behind them.

How do you know you have no chance on the syd-sfo it’s currently J8,P7 so that’s not horrible. I also want to say don’t rely on that upgrade list at all by changing the time on your phone. I was trying to upgrade a friend nrt- ord he was 8th, none of the top 8 got upgraded and instead 11,14,15,17 got upgraded out of 21. So that goes to show don’t rely on it. Now that’s a long flight though so if there is more than probably 10 pax on the list I would do the change just because of how few people there are on the list for the other flight and I wouldn’t want to risk being in Y. Just going by inventory the Mel flight isn’t much better at P9 however it might work out. Ultimately it’s a risky move either way. You could stay on your current flight and maybe get the upgrade or maybe not. Or you could change flights be down 500 dollars and not get the upgrade. If I were in this position I wouldn’t make the change quite yet and keep monitoring loads and if I was 75% sure of an upgrade on Mel-lax and thought my chances on syd was near zero then I would make the change. Yeah if I thought -syd was anything more than 40% I would stay just because I don’t want to be down 500 dollars. I would say check back on loads in a day then make your decision if you have any more questions about what to do feel free to ask. A lot of people on this forum are highly knowledgeable and will help in a moments notice. Safe travels!

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jan 1, 20 at 11:06 am Reason: repaired quote
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