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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Aug 22, 18, 8:59 pm
  #151  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
Not sure that's the right conclusion. Looks to me like a potential oversale. Which is your best scenario for an upgrade, since it will result in J pax moved to F.
Hello Kacee, help me understand why Y seems to be oversold for UA881 on Saturday. I may not be readin this correctly. Appreciate a quick explanation. Thanks
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Old Aug 22, 18, 9:06 pm
  #152  
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Originally Posted by YogiORD View Post

Hello Kacee, help me understand why Y seems to be oversold for UA881 on Saturday. I may not be readin this correctly. Appreciate a quick explanation. Thanks
I would call it a "potential" oversale based on the economy seatmap (only E+ open) and the inventory, specifically J9 Y4 W0. Plus, flight status on the App now says J booked 32/40 with 1 blocked. The rapid drop in booked J (from 38 this morning to 32 now) is obviously a positive sign for you.
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Old Aug 22, 18, 9:26 pm
  #153  
 
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Originally Posted by YogiORD View Post

Hello Kacee, help me understand why Y seems to be oversold for UA881 on Saturday. I may not be readin this correctly. Appreciate a quick explanation. Thanks
Anything less than Y9 indicates tight inventory, not "wide open." The numbers that you quoted aren't additive -- it means that they're willing to sell 8 seats in Y; of those, they'd sell up to 7 in B and up to 6 in H. So, that's 8 total, not 8+7+6=21.

That doesn't necessarily mean it's oversold -- Kacee's remark that 1 seat is blocked in J usually does though -- but it's a fair indication that it might be. If UA believes that they are more likely to get people to pay walk-up Y prices than walk-up J prices, they'll continue to sell Y inventory, knowing that each additional sale will likely cause one more upgrade -- but figuring that seat would otherwise go empty. So, they might offer Y8 even if there are no available seats in Y, figuring that they'll get some cancellations, missed connections, or no-shows... or have to upgrade some people.
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Old Aug 22, 18, 9:40 pm
  #154  
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
Anything less than Y9 indicates tight inventory, not "wide open." The numbers that you quoted aren't additive -- it means that they're willing to sell 8 seats in Y; of those, they'd sell up to 7 in B and up to 6 in H. So, that's 8 total, not 8+7+6=21.
The flight currently shows Y4. J9 Y4 W0 (and no empty E- seats) says potential oversale to me. J blocked 1 is just confirmation.
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Old Aug 22, 18, 9:43 pm
  #155  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
The flight currently shows Y4. J9 Y4 W0 (and no empty E- seats) says potential oversale to me. J blocked 1 is just confirmation.
Sorry, I was using the inventory numbers you quoted. Yes, that definitely screams "oversale."
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Old Aug 22, 18, 9:47 pm
  #156  
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
Sorry, I was using the inventory numbers you quoted.
You mean the post where I said . . .
I would call it a "potential" oversale based on the economy seatmap (only E+ open) and the inventory, specifically J9 Y4 W0.
But I agree, even the initial inventory numbers quoted by OP indicate oversale. J9, Y<9, and everything below V zeroed out.
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Old Aug 22, 18, 10:36 pm
  #157  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
You mean the post where I said . . .


But I agree, even the initial inventory numbers quoted by OP indicate oversale. J9, Y<9, and everything below V zeroed out.
LOL. OK, OK, I looked at the part in the inset box and skimmed past the ones you wrote. Mea culpa!
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Old Aug 23, 18, 2:19 am
  #158  
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Originally Posted by YogiORD View Post
As of noon today the Aug25 ORD-NRT still shows 35/40 for Polaris and 0/8 for First.
I suspect the J bookings are declining because of the typhoons currently hitting Japan. J now down to 31/40.
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Old Aug 23, 18, 7:48 am
  #159  
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
I suspect the J bookings are declining because of the typhoons currently hitting Japan. J now down to 31/40.
@Kacee .. can you post the link to check the status of a future flight (that is more than 2 days away)? That would be a good way to check to see if Y is showing full.

Based on inventory in J, I would fully expect they will overbook Y... they would rather sell a Y seat and bump someone into J from Y than to not sell the seat at all by zeroing out Y. They will likely continue to sell J at full price, and UA wouldn't think twice about having to bump someone off the flight to accommodate a full fare J ticket. It's all a statistical model to UA (as you know well, Kacee) to maximize revenue.

Blocked seats are often nice for those of us lowly 1K category that want to use GPU's ... the blocked seats mean UA is taking them out of inventory, and on the DoD, they will upgrade people into those seats at the gate. It's a blessing in disguise for people like me.
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Old Aug 23, 18, 8:21 am
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Originally Posted by jjmoore View Post
@Kacee .. can you post the link to check the status of a future flight (that is more than 2 days away)? That would be a good way to check to see if Y is showing full.

Based on inventory in J, I would fully expect they will overbook Y... they would rather sell a Y seat and bump someone into J from Y than to not sell the seat at all by zeroing out Y. They will likely continue to sell J at full price, and UA wouldn't think twice about having to bump someone off the flight to accommodate a full fare J ticket. It's all a statistical model to UA (as you know well, Kacee) to maximize revenue.

Blocked seats are often nice for those of us lowly 1K category that want to use GPU's ... the blocked seats mean UA is taking them out of inventory, and on the DoD, they will upgrade people into those seats at the gate. It's a blessing in disguise for people like me.
Use this site #bookmark
https://www.cablepick.net/united

Y is not showing full.
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Old Aug 23, 18, 8:40 am
  #161  
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Originally Posted by jjmoore View Post
@Kacee .. can you post the link to check the status of a future flight (that is more than 2 days away)?
Change the date on your phone and use the App
Originally Posted by laxmillenial View Post
Use this site #bookmark
https://www.cablepick.net/united

Y is not showing full.
The full site won't tell you if seats are blocked, while the App will.

I find the "standby" listing on flight status to be less useful for predicting oversales than the inventory figures.
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Old Aug 23, 18, 9:03 am
  #162  
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
Change the date on your phone and use the App
LOL that's my usual tactic.. quick and easy.
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Old Aug 23, 18, 10:37 am
  #163  
 
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You are correct that the United App is more accurate. The UA 881 for Aug 25 is now showing Polaris as 31/40 +1 blocked. Economy on standby on App is showing as full. So they have to bump into J and F. I am more optimistic that my 1K GPU may actually clear, but not sure why United has to wait till the very last minute. Cheers and thanks
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Old Aug 23, 18, 12:18 pm
  #164  
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Originally Posted by YogiORD View Post
You are correct that the United App is more accurate. The UA 881 for Aug 25 is now showing Polaris as 31/40 +1 blocked. Economy on standby on App is showing as full. So they have to bump into J and F. I am more optimistic that my 1K GPU may actually clear, but not sure why United has to wait till the very last minute. Cheers and thanks
You may see some upgrades right around T-24. Or it could go to the gate.
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Old Aug 23, 18, 12:40 pm
  #165  
 
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I hope. The App shows +1 blocked. What would that mean?....pilot seat? Also App now has a note that no customers are waiting for upgrades. I guess the note is there because no one has checked in...right? Thanks and cheers
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