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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Sep 5, 19, 12:41 pm   -   Wikipost
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Old Sep 1, 19, 7:56 am
  #1606  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
+21 blocked is misleading, because they're blocking 15 J seats on each to guard against a swap to the older configuration. It doesn't mean they'll upgrade 21 people; if they have six instruments listed, they'll upgrade those and probably have room for everyone else.
I see; thanks a bunch for the detailed explanation!

I moved a 1K Wclass friend, who's waitlisted on my GPU, to the 938 this Tuesday, from his original 930 SFO-LHR, because it looked like his chances were better. Plus the 930 seems unlikely to be Polarized. The 938 is showing 24(+17 blocked) on the app (the website just says 41/46 booked which isn't as informative) and J5 JN5 C4 D4 Z4 ZN4 P4 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H8 HN8 Q7V7 (W->G)0 XN4. Is it likely it will clear?
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Old Sep 1, 19, 2:29 pm
  #1607  
 
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Premier Gold here and I'll be flying with a companion on flight 1170 this Friday from LAX-HNL, which is on the 753. The app is currently showing 20 out of 24 seats as being available, which seems like a lot with just over 5 days to go. Anyone here ever have success getting CPU'd on this route as a Gold or lower? Guessing it's not a very elite-heavy route, but Hawaii flights tend to have a lot of paid FC upgrades - at least on Delta where I do most of my flying.
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Old Sep 1, 19, 2:49 pm
  #1608  
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Originally Posted by Daitheflu84 View Post
Premier Gold here and I'll be flying with a companion on flight 1170 this Friday from LAX-HNL, which is on the 753. The app is currently showing 20 out of 24 seats as being available, which seems like a lot with just over 5 days to go. ...
Post Labor day week is got to be one of the slowest weeks for Hawaii travel. Kids are back in school, For those not constraints by school schedules -- October is a bit better

So to your point, think you chances are pretty decent but not a certainty -- as the cash offers may be particular decent also
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Old Sep 1, 19, 3:19 pm
  #1609  
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Originally Posted by under2100 View Post
Is it likely it will clear?
Yes, assuming the 76L sticks.
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Old Sep 1, 19, 4:51 pm
  #1610  
 
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Originally Posted by Daitheflu84 View Post
Premier Gold here and I'll be flying with a companion on flight 1170 this Friday from LAX-HNL, which is on the 753. The app is currently showing 20 out of 24 seats as being available, which seems like a lot with just over 5 days to go. Anyone here ever have success getting CPU'd on this route as a Gold or lower? Guessing it's not a very elite-heavy route, but Hawaii flights tend to have a lot of paid FC upgrades - at least on Delta where I do most of my flying.
UA flights to Hawaii vary wildly on CPUs - from everyone on the waitlist plus more (non-revs), to none. Your chances are pretty decent. As for Delta, they’re running a distant third in capacity to Hawaii among the legacy carriers, so their frequent flyer population (probably roughly same size as UA’s) suffers much lower upgrade chances. That’s why you pay for the front or (probably) ride in the back on Delta - more competition for fewer seats.
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Old Sep 1, 19, 4:57 pm
  #1611  
 
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Originally Posted by IAH-OIL-TRASH View Post


UA flights to Hawaii vary wildly on CPUs - from everyone on the waitlist plus more (non-revs), to none. Your chances are pretty decent. As for Delta, they’re running a distant third in capacity to Hawaii among the legacy carriers, so their frequent flyer population (probably roughly same size as UA’s) suffers much lower upgrade chances. That’s why you pay for the front or (probably) ride in the back on Delta - more competition for fewer seats.
Yes, thIs sounds pretty accurate with regards to Delta. My girlfriend and I just flew to Kauai last week and both got upgraded to FC at the 72 hour GM window. Everyone on the list got UGd on that flight, plus there were 3 or 4 empty FC seats leftover. Havent ever seen that on a DL flight before! More to your point, however; the return flight from LIH had no available FC seats for UG and we paid to ride up front, given that it was a long redeye. Our return from HNL next week is on Delta and we paid for that FC seat as well, albeit at a pretty decent price.
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Old Sep 1, 19, 5:53 pm
  #1612  
 
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Originally Posted by Daitheflu84 View Post
Premier Gold here and I'll be flying with a companion on flight 1170 this Friday from LAX-HNL, which is on the 753. The app is currently showing 20 out of 24 seats as being available, which seems like a lot with just over 5 days to go. Anyone here ever have success getting CPU'd on this route as a Gold or lower? Guessing it's not a very elite-heavy route, but Hawaii flights tend to have a lot of paid FC upgrades - at least on Delta where I do most of my flying.
I am a Gold and got CPU'd on that route last weekend (Sun) on a K fare. There were quite a few upgrades after me and as a Gold I was #1 on the visible list.

TOD was $223 for the LAX-HNL segment.
Good luck!

Last edited by Lynnie_Bee; Sep 1, 19 at 5:55 pm Reason: TOD price
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Old Sep 1, 19, 11:02 pm
  #1613  
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Originally Posted by IAH-OIL-TRASH View Post
As for Delta, they’re running a distant third in capacity to Hawaii among the legacy carriers, so their frequent flyer population (probably roughly same size as UA’s) suffers much lower upgrade chances. That’s why you pay for the front or (probably) ride in the back on Delta - more competition for fewer seats.
LAX vs. SFO makes a big difference. LAX is UA's weakest hub, which means upgrade odds are much better there.
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Old Sep 2, 19, 5:53 pm
  #1614  
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Hawaii as a low elite is particularly variable since it is elite-light with few higher elites in front of you; chances are just at the mercy of paid F demand (which is quite heavy these days).
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Old Sep 3, 19, 7:47 am
  #1615  
 
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Originally Posted by Lynnie_Bee View Post
TOD was $223 for the LAX-HNL segment.
Good luck!
I wouldn't pay a cent for those upgrade seats in the B753. They are hardly comfortable compared to the Y seats, and I would feel much better about sitting in an exit row seat on that plane (unless they give me the free CPU, of course).
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Old Sep 3, 19, 10:20 am
  #1616  
 
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Originally Posted by findark View Post
Hawaii as a low elite is particularly variable since it is elite-light with few higher elites in front of you; chances are just at the mercy of paid F demand (which is quite heavy these days).
As I travel regularly to the Islands I would not characterize it as "elite-light" but would agree paid F and F upgrades with instruments is pretty common on the runs to the Islands. My CPU luck to the Islands as a 1K for years was maybe 25% and that may be pushing it a bit. As a GS it has moved to about 50%. Obviously much better with a instrument employed.
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Old Sep 3, 19, 12:53 pm
  #1617  
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Originally Posted by nomad420 View Post
As I travel regularly to the Islands I would not characterize it as "elite-light" but would agree paid F and F upgrades with instruments is pretty common on the runs to the Islands. My CPU luck to the Islands as a 1K for years was maybe 25% and that may be pushing it a bit. As a GS it has moved to about 50%. Obviously much better with a instrument employed.
But were you missing your upgrades because there were people higher up the list than you clearing, or because advance-purchased F and TODs took all the seats?
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Old Sep 3, 19, 2:24 pm
  #1618  
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Originally Posted by findark View Post
But were you missing your upgrades because there were people higher up the list than you clearing, or because advance-purchased F and TODs took all the seats?
IME it's mostly purchased F to Hawaii. My last several flights, all the GS (at least those who preboarded) have been in Y.
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Old Sep 3, 19, 3:12 pm
  #1619  
 
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Waitlisted with Miles + copay for 12/27/19 LGA-DEN (UA2140) as well as a SFO-AKL (UA917) in a K fare. There's a DEN-SFO leg that I paid to upgrade at booking, so that's accounted for. 0 status [shame]. I can amuse myself in coach from LGA to DEN, so clearly I'm more concerned with the AKL leg.

LGA-DEN is showing:
J9, JN9, C6, D0, Z0, ZN0, P0, PN0, PZ0, IN0, I0, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, E9, U9, H9, HN0, Q9, V0, W0, S0, T0, L0, K0, G0, N9, XN0, X0

SFO-AKL is showing:
J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P9, PN0, PZ0, IN0, I0, O9, ON9, A9, R0, RN0, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, E9, U9, H9, HN9, Q9, V9, W9, S9, T9, L0, K0, G0, N9, XN0, X0

1. What would we estimate my odds are for moving up in the world?
2. If the LGA-DEN leg doesn't clear, does that invalidate my chances of any upgrade on the SFO-AKL?
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Old Sep 3, 19, 3:30 pm
  #1620  
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Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
1. What would we estimate my odds are for moving up in the world?
I would say very poor on a peak season Friday, although P9 is much better inventory than I might have otherwise guessed.

Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
2. If the LGA-DEN leg doesn't clear, does that invalidate my chances of any upgrade on the SFO-AKL?
No, it's independent.
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