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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Sep 5, 19, 12:41 pm   -   Wikipost
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Old Aug 3, 19, 9:32 pm
  #1486  
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Originally Posted by danthflyer View Post
I have no idea how this happened but I got upgraded on UA1 after all!!! Is that upgrade list list not by priority? I have no idea how I went from 15 to the front of the line, but what an amazing surprise
Sounds pretty conclusive that the visible list is by your status only; the waitlist which cleared in advance was for PN class (ahead of PZ class) which is why you jumped.
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Old Aug 3, 19, 11:34 pm
  #1487  
 
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Originally Posted by StuckinITH View Post
It must be because they opened a PN. Maybe you were on the upgrade list as a 1K and did not show that the GPU was coming from a GS.

So, you have access to the Polaris Lounge.
Thank you, and yes, this lounge is insane! Trying not to COMPLETELY spoil my appetite for dinner!
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Old Aug 4, 19, 12:27 am
  #1488  
 
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Originally Posted by danthflyer View Post
Thank you, and yes, this lounge is insane! Trying not to COMPLETELY spoil my appetite for dinner!
Why not? The food in the PL will be much better than whatever you'll get on UA1.
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Old Aug 4, 19, 10:24 am
  #1489  
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Originally Posted by econ View Post
Why not? The food in the PL will be much better than whatever you'll get on UA1.
Maybe OP is confused and thinks he's taking SQ1
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Old Aug 4, 19, 4:53 pm
  #1490  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: EWR
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August 7th
EWR-IAH 738 UA 687
IAH-SYD 789 UA 101
Cash + Miles Upgrade to UA First/Polaris, no status
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Old Aug 5, 19, 1:45 am
  #1491  
 
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Originally Posted by findark View Post
IME AKL is mostly a holiday destination and is usually a pretty easy upgrade.. rumor was that the 77W is scheduled more for cargo than pax. But yes, day of week matters, and I would always grid out all of the flights between the continents where you want to travel over all your possible days to get a sense of the inventory picture

In my experience the most common upgrades are LAX-MEL followed by SFO-AKL and LAX-SYD (the SFO-MEL flight is new since I last flew this route and they did cut LAX-SYD below daily) in both directions. But absolutely check in on all of SFO/LAX/IAH-SYD/MEL/AKL for your dates.
findark, your advice (and everyone on this thread) is as good as gold - so thank you! Taking your advice on avoiding weekends and while building my grid of possibilities, I came across a Thursday Dec 5 UA 777 metal on AKL-SFO with Z0 and PZ0, but has PN9; about maybe 10-12 Polaris seats already assigned. I know you said I would have a fighting chance if PN is available (and I understand only GS can dip into the PN inventory when using GPUs). R fare (Premium Plus) is available (and I'm eyeing it as a consolation price, in the event of non-upgrade). My understanding (from spending the last 15 mins on Google) is R fare using GPUs would trump those who bought even a Y (unrestricted economy) fare using GPUs, and the article went on to say it would even beat a GS on a Y fare using GPUs. Is this a true statement?

And I do understand R fare can be significantly more than a Y/W fare but not so much a factor for me as I still need to meet my PQD to re-qualify for 1K.

Thanks in advance as always (and slightly off topic, is it true that row 22 in Premium Plus has more recline than row 20-21? If so, how much more are we talking about?)
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Old Aug 5, 19, 2:19 am
  #1492  
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Originally Posted by UpgradeMe3 View Post
August 7th
EWR-IAH 738 UA 687
IAH-SYD 789 UA 101
Cash + Miles Upgrade to UA First/Polaris, no status
Zero chance on EWR-IAH.

IAH-SYD is booked 38/48, with inventory at PN2 PZ0, so it's possible. I'd like your chances better with status, but, as findark recently pointed out, this isn't exactly high season for Australian travel.

Originally Posted by Jamester View Post
My understanding (from spending the last 15 mins on Google) is R fare using GPUs would trump those who bought even a Y (unrestricted economy) fare using GPUs, and the article went on to say it would even beat a GS on a Y fare using GPUs. Is this a true statement?
Yes (to the first part), and sort of (to the second). As long as PN > 0, a GS can clear at booking. If PN were zero, and a GS joined the waitlist, they'd be waitlisted for PN, which will open before PZ. If there's any truth at all to the last point, it would only be if PN were zero and stayed that way all the way to the gate. Then, a passenger on an R fare may be ahead of a GS passenger on a Y fare -- although since so many GS benefits are unpublished, I don't think we really even know if that is the case.

However, being ahead of all non-GS economy passengers is still a big win. (Note that someone could still book O or A and move ahead of you).
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Old Aug 5, 19, 8:48 am
  #1493  
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And the biggest benefit is that if something goes wrong and you lose the gamble, you're in PE instead of miserable 10-across Y for 13+ hours
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Old Aug 5, 19, 12:12 pm
  #1494  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
That's about as encouraging an inventory display as you could see, shy of PZ > 0.

Although you can no longer view future flight status on the web, you can do it on your phone if you set the date to the future. (It may mess with your calendar, so keep that in mind). Seeing how many booked seats there are would be the last piece of the puzzle.
Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
You're correct that they wouldn't show up on the waitlist yet. However, 22/48, nine days prior to departure, would give you a good chance, IMO. Obviously, it'd be better if you were higher status, and there are no guarantees, but if the sell 15 more seats, and you're tenth on the waitlist, you'd still clear.

The biggest concern would be if there were a flight cancellation and UA had to route a bunch of new passengers onto that flight. That's part of the nature of waitlisting, though. :/
Originally Posted by findark View Post
Under half-empty at 9 days out and I think you will clear. Australia in August is not all that popular.
Originally Posted by Duke787 View Post
Okay thanks -- think I will roll the dice. Good news is the fare class is higher so the co-pay is lower (though won't realize the full difference due to the $100 I have to pay to redeposit the MUA from the initial flight since it had already cleared LAX - SYD)
Just a follow-up my dates changed again (think they stuck this time) good news is there was PZ space on RDU - DEN - LAX - SYD on the day in question (including a 777 for DEN - LAX), the bad news is thanks to scheduling I'll now arrive in Sydney at 7am and the meetings and events I'm attending are later that same day so very glad I don't have to go to the gate with this upgrade.

The IAH - SYD flight in question did drop to PZ4 with nothing cleared before I switched flights but I still think it likely would have cleared (still 20+ J seats available) just might have been at the gate (aka no Polaris lounge) but no longer an issue
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Old Aug 5, 19, 12:55 pm
  #1495  
 
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Originally Posted by Jamester View Post
I came across a Thursday Dec 5 UA 777 metal on AKL-SFO with Z0 and PZ0, but has PN9
I think you had a typo there--should be Z9 PN9 PZ0. It would be a bug or a serious change in RM policy for there to be a flight with Z0 PN9.
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Old Aug 5, 19, 6:56 pm
  #1496  
 
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Originally Posted by econ View Post
Why not? The food in the PL will be much better than whatever you'll get on UA1.
The fish entree I had for dinner on the plane was actually nice and better than expected, but you're right that the PL food in general was better. It's a long time before they serve breakfast, though, so I don't regret eating some dinner.
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Last edited by danthflyer; Aug 5, 19 at 10:21 pm
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Old Aug 7, 19, 10:33 am
  #1497  
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
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Applied a RPU ORD-SFO for an upcoming flight (next few days).

Day before, same flight #, shows PZ>1, day after shows PZ>1. Of course my flight is J9 P7 PN1 PZ0.

What are my chances here?

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Old Aug 7, 19, 10:49 am
  #1498  
 
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Hi,

Firstly, is something wrong with cablepick? It takes me to a United page with flight status for only 3 days out.

I have an EWR to SMF trip on 20th August. Have a few options, wondering which is most likely to clear, using RPU
UA497 EWR to SFO (V class ticket)
UA703 EWR to LAX (S class)
UA1702 EWR to LAX (v class)

If they are all very low/ zero chance , my backup is to do this via CPU, if so, are chances pretty good for 1K (mostly care about ORD to SMF)
UA977 EWR to ORD (V class)
UA2178 ORD to SMF (V class)

thx
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Old Aug 7, 19, 11:37 am
  #1499  
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What day of the week? Sounds decent, but if that's Monday morning or Sunday night and the adjacent flights are on much less peak days, it could be worse.
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Old Aug 7, 19, 12:23 pm
  #1500  
 
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Originally Posted by findark View Post
What day of the week? Sounds decent, but if that's Monday morning or Sunday night and the adjacent flights are on much less peak days, it could be worse.
Sunday reverse redeye (leaves at 10pm) which is usually unpopular on that route (the loads reflect this compared to the nearly empty J cabin on the flight just before).

Itís had PN space for about 2 weeks, but nothing in PZ.

If I could get a Global Services family member to apply a RPU from their account, would it clear with PN1?
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