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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Aug 21, 18, 3:04 pm
  #136  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
You have a chance with fifteen open seats six days out. Not a great chance, but at least a chance.
If it clears, itís a perfect illustration of why LAX-SIN is going away!
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Old Aug 21, 18, 8:05 pm
  #137  
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
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Ord-Nrt Aug25 Upgrade Chance

Hey folks,

would like to know now chance of getting an upgrade to Polaris on UA881 ORD-NRT for Sat Aug 25.
Applied GPU for Economy booked under H class. 1K status.
Expert view shows J9 JN9 P0 R0 RN0
United is showing 38 out of 40sold, but seat map shows 9 available.
First class is wide open 0 out of 8 booked, although 1 will go to the pilot.
Any thoughts from you gurus if I should keep hopes alive, especially for a Sat Narita flight.
Cheers


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Old Aug 21, 18, 8:29 pm
  #138  
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
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Originally Posted by YogiORD View Post
Hey folks,

would like to know now chance of getting an upgrade to Polaris on UA881 ORD-NRT for Sat Aug 25.
Applied GPU for Economy booked under H class. 1K status.
Expert view shows J9 JN9 P0 R0 RN0
United is showing 38 out of 40sold, but seat map shows 9 available.
First class is wide open 0 out of 8 booked, although 1 will go to the pilot.
Any thoughts from you gurus if I should keep hopes alive, especially for a Sat Narita flight.
Cheers

Welcome to FlyerTalk!

So, the reason that they're selling 9 seats in J is that they're willing to provide operational upgrades (op-ups) to F. 38/40 is correct. If they sell 47 total seats in J, 7 passengers will be moved to F -- that's where the 9 is coming from.

Per UA policy, they will not clear upgrades from Y to J unless there's space. They will not move passengers to F to make room for an upgrade from Y unless Y is oversold. Your best bet is to hope for a Y oversale or that there are a couple of J passengers with GPUs applied to move to F. Otherwise, it doesn't look good.
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Old Aug 21, 18, 8:34 pm
  #139  
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Originally Posted by YogiORD View Post
Any thoughts from you gurus if I should keep hopes alive, especially for a Sat Narita flight.
Cheers
Booked 38/40? Very slim hope, a little better if Y is overbooked.
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Old Aug 21, 18, 8:50 pm
  #140  
 
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Originally Posted by PsiFighter37 View Post


If it clears, itís a perfect illustration of why LAX-SIN is going away!
As a silver lining, the new AM SFO-SIN seems to be surprisingly liberal with R space. But indeed. (Especially if it means they just can't support two US-SIN flights per day.)
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Old Aug 22, 18, 1:21 am
  #141  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
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Originally Posted by userjeff View Post
Flight 808 PEK -> IAD
Date: 8/25/2018
Fare Class: Y
Status: Gold

Used 20k miles for upgrade waitlist. Currently 23/36 booked in J. Any Chance?

Have my Chances changed with only 3 days to go? 20/36 sold. Looks like Y is over sold.
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Old Aug 22, 18, 5:13 am
  #142  
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
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Originally Posted by YogiORD View Post
Hey folks,

would like to know now chance of getting an upgrade to Polaris on UA881 ORD-NRT for Sat Aug 25.
Applied GPU for Economy booked under H class. 1K status.
Expert view shows J9 JN9 P0 R0 RN0
United is showing 38 out of 40sold, but seat map shows 9 available.
First class is wide open 0 out of 8 booked, although 1 will go to the pilot.
Any thoughts from you gurus if I should keep hopes alive, especially for a Sat Narita flight.
Cheers
Welcome to FlyerTalk and especially to the United threads!

Your chances are increasing slightly since it seems that 3 passengers decided not to fly: it's showing 35 out of 40 sold. But you still have to worry about Global Service passengers and about 1Ks with a higher fare. And all those passengers and you have to hope that nobody gets a TOD that they cannot refuse.
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Old Aug 22, 18, 8:08 am
  #143  
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Originally Posted by StuckinITH View Post
But you still have to worry about Global Service passengers and about 1Ks with a higher fare.
And last minute sales.
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Old Aug 22, 18, 8:51 am
  #144  
 
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Originally Posted by userjeff View Post
Have my Chances changed with only 3 days to go? 20/36 sold. Looks like Y is over sold.
I agree; Y is oversold, and I'd say your chances look decent at this point. They're currently selling J6 C5 D0 Y1 B1 M1 E0. That means they're likely oversold by 10 in Y, and are willing to oversell by one more. That's good for you, because the seats that they're blocking from inventory can't be sold as upgrades during check-in. As things currently sit, there will be at least 10 upgrades.

You should be first in line out of the Gold passengers, so the question is simply how many GS, 1K, and Platinum passengers are ahead of you with waitlisted instruments. There's no way to know that, but I certainly like your chances better today than I did when you first posted.
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Old Aug 22, 18, 10:20 am
  #145  
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
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Originally Posted by SirDormammu View Post
Hello fellow FT users,

Please share some thoughts on my mileage plus upgrade going through (general tier member, K classed booked):

UA37, departing LAX to SIN on August 27th. 33/48 United Business Polaris booked.

Opened fares: J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P9, and PN, R, RN, IN, I all zero.

Iíve been on the waitlist for over a month.
I cleared that flight back in April, Silver at the time, K fare, mileage upgrade. It cleared 2 hours before the flight.

Good luck!

- Tom
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Old Aug 22, 18, 12:01 pm
  #146  
 
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Originally Posted by StuckinITH View Post
Welcome to FlyerTalk and especially to the United threads!

Your chances are increasing slightly since it seems that 3 passengers decided not to fly: it's showing 35 out of 40 sold. But you still have to worry about Global Service passengers and about 1Ks with a higher fare. And all those passengers and you have to hope that nobody gets a TOD that they cannot refuse.
thanks for checking this and helping your fellow travelers. As of noon today the Aug25 ORD-NRT still shows 35/40 for Polaris and 0/8 for First. Still worried about J8 JN8 P0 PN0 RN0, so will be competing against GS upgrades and unitedís Stubbornness that they will still sell J seats at full price. Y looks wide open with Y8 B7 H6. Have slim hopes since have not seen many GSís take the pacific route from ORD. Nothing like my LHR-ORD from last month when they paraded 35 GSís onto the 767, and there was no hope of any upgrade. Cheers all! Will keep you updated if anything changes, but am fully preparing for E+.
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Old Aug 22, 18, 12:07 pm
  #147  
 
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Originally Posted by tstauck View Post
I cleared that flight back in April, Silver at the time, K fare, mileage upgrade. It cleared 2 hours before the flight.

Good luck!

- Tom
Good to hear, do you recall the availability leading up to the flight? (15 seats left with five more days to go, crossing my fingers).
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Old Aug 22, 18, 4:00 pm
  #148  
 
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Originally Posted by SirDormammu View Post


Good to hear, do you recall the availability leading up to the flight? (15 seats left with five more days to go, crossing my fingers).
I recall it was about the same. In fact, I didn't even waitlist until about 5 days out because my return was already upgraded (R space at booking), so I figured I would suck it up and do economy out and First coming back. But realizing the miles would be refunded if I didn't clear, I would have nothing to lose.

It went from about 15 available five days out to 8 one day out, and then cleared at two hours. I was walking by the UC in LAX on my way to the boarding area when I noticed it cleared, so swung in there quick to start taking advantage of the perks lol!
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Old Aug 22, 18, 8:16 pm
  #149  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
I agree; Y is oversold, and I'd say your chances look decent at this point. They're currently selling J6 C5 D0 Y1 B1 M1 E0. That means they're likely oversold by 10 in Y, and are willing to oversell by one more. That's good for you, because the seats that they're blocking from inventory can't be sold as upgrades during check-in. As things currently sit, there will be at least 10 upgrades.

You should be first in line out of the Gold passengers, so the question is simply how many GS, 1K, and Platinum passengers are ahead of you with waitlisted instruments. There's no way to know that, but I certainly like your chances better today than I did when you first posted.
Happy to hear this!
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Old Aug 22, 18, 8:45 pm
  #150  
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Originally Posted by YogiORD View Post
Y looks wide open with Y8 B7 H6.
Not sure that's the right conclusion. Looks to me like a potential oversale. Which is your best scenario for an upgrade, since it will result in J pax moved to F.
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