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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Dec 23, 19, 9:28 am
  #136  
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Beijing
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Hello,
I am a no status member flying on UA 838 (NRT-SFO) on 1/3/20. What are my chances on a PlusPoints upgrade on this flight. I am assuming it is basically zero, but whats been confusing me is the P+ has been fully booked basically ever since I bought the ticket back in late August. Is it common for P+ to sell out before Business?
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Old Dec 23, 19, 10:25 pm
  #137  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
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UA 917 on 12/27 (SFO-AKL)

I'm a no-status K fare who miles+copayed onto the waitlist. The UA app date glitch list (allowing me to peek at the upgrade list) has the following: 44 Capacity, 34 Booked & I'm #12 . P+ rapidly booked full somehow. If I'm serious about making a move forward, should I call UA to strip me from this dead-end waitlist and hope-wish-pray for a check-in upgrade buy-up offer? How accurate do we think these date glitch lists are?

For context, this flight was very empty for weeks and UA was throwing a ton of PN out over the last month. Strangely, none of the pax ahead of me ever cleared when that PN space was open, so I'm guessing the folks ahead of me on the list are also non-status pax with better econ or P+ fare classes perhaps? Not sure who all these last minute New Zealand travel ppl are :P

J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 PZ clearly 0
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Old Dec 23, 19, 11:02 pm
  #138  
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Originally Posted by Lolauncher View Post
Hello,
I am a no status member flying on UA 838 (NRT-SFO) on 1/3/20. What are my chances on a PlusPoints upgrade on this flight. I am assuming it is basically zero, but whats been confusing me is the P+ has been fully booked basically ever since I bought the ticket back in late August. Is it common for P+ to sell out before Business?
Have you tried taking a look at the upgrade list? If you set a smartphone or tablet to a future date, you can get an idea of what the list looks like (although, it’s somewhat glitchy, as discussed). There will almost certainly be some upgrades, as the current inventory numbers virtually scream “oversold in Economy.” (J9 ... P9 PN0 O0 Y1 B1 M0). The only question is how many members with Premier status are ahead of you.

As for P+ being sold out — it’s a much smaller cabin, and the target market is different: PE is intended to be purchased by well-heeled leisure travelers, not business travelers. A Friday flight right after the holidays? I could easily see people booking into that cabin for a family return to the US.

Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
UA 917 on 12/27 (SFO-AKL)

I'm a no-status K fare who miles+copayed onto the waitlist. The UA app date glitch list (allowing me to peek at the upgrade list) has the following: 44 Capacity, 34 Booked & I'm #12 . P+ rapidly booked full somehow. If I'm serious about making a move forward, should I call UA to strip me from this dead-end waitlist and hope-wish-pray for a check-in upgrade buy-up offer? How accurate do we think these date glitch lists are?

I don’t think that they’re accurate — in fact, I’m quite certain that they’re not. However, the errors that we’ve been seeing have been of two forms: people missing from the waitlist, seeming to clear “out of nowhere,” and people being in the wrong order on the waitlist, making it look like the list isn’t being followed. I’m not aware of any situation where people have appeared on the list despite not being eligible. Without status, on a K fare, you’re basically guaranteed to be at the end of the list.

Based upon multiple reports, I wouldn’t expect a buy-up offer as long as you have an instrument upgrade in place, so, yes, your best strategy might be to remove the miles + copay.

Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
For context, this flight was very empty for weeks and UA was throwing a ton of PN out over the last month. Strangely, none of the pax ahead of me ever cleared when that PN space was open, so I'm guessing the folks ahead of me on the list are also non-status pax with better econ or P+ fare classes perhaps? Not sure who all these last minute New Zealand travel ppl are :P
On long-haul flights, PN space is reserved for Global Services instruments. All other status levels would be waiting for the same PZ space that you are.
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Old Dec 23, 19, 11:55 pm
  #139  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
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As an update, I called UA and asked what the buyup was from K to the lowest P+ and it was $5.40 (!!). After negotiating a change fee waive with a supervisor, I'm now an R fare in what seems like an oversold P+ cabin. Hoping the app lists are glitchy & that this improves my odds somewhat. Worst case scenario, I'm in P+ vs my previous economy middle seat.
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Old Dec 24, 19, 12:10 am
  #140  
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Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
As an update, I called UA and asked what the buyup was from K to the lowest P+ and it was $5.40 (!!). After negotiating a change fee waive with a supervisor, I'm now an R fare in what seems like an oversold P+ cabin. Hoping the app lists are glitchy & that this improves my odds somewhat. Worst case scenario, I'm in P+ vs my previous economy middle seat.
That... is an unbelievably low fare difference — as in, I literally don’t believe it; I suspect that the agent made a pricing mistake — and a great deal. I’d double-check my reservation to make sure it ticketed properly. Assuming it did, in theory, you’ve now bumped yourself ahead of non-Global Services members in Economy. Did your spot on the waitlist change?
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Old Dec 24, 19, 12:27 am
  #141  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
That... is an unbelievably low fare difference — as in, I literally don’t believe it; I suspect that the agent made a pricing mistake — and a great deal. I’d double-check my reservation to make sure it ticketed properly. Assuming it did, in theory, you’ve now bumped yourself ahead of non-Global Services members in Economy. Did your spot on the waitlist change?
I can confirm that my reservation has changed, my card was charged the 5 bucks, & I'm definitely an R fare. No seat assignment, nor the possibility of seat selection. Upon rechecking the possibly-glitchy app waitlist, my spot is exactly the same.

Perhaps the 11 people ahead of me are all non-status A/O fares? The reason I'd assume this is because, back when I was #3 and then even later as #9, there was PN9 for weeks and none of those same folks cleared, but more P+ seats kept filling up on the seatmap.
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Old Dec 24, 19, 2:17 am
  #142  
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Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
I can confirm that my reservation has changed, my card was charged the 5 bucks, & I'm definitely an R fare. No seat assignment, nor the possibility of seat selection. Upon rechecking the possibly-glitchy app waitlist, my spot is exactly the same.
Your position on the waitlist almost certainly should have changed. According to the published rules, the only way it’s possible for your waitlist position not to have changed is if everyone ahead of you is either on a Global Services instrument or has also purchased a P+ fare. So, I’m going with “glitch” here; it just seems really improbable that there was nobody else waitlisted for a Y->J upgrade on that flight.

Unfortunately, this is when the glitchiness really matters, because it definitely informs the recommendation about whether or not to cancel the upgrade request and wait for a buy-up offer.

Hey, did they mention a reduced co-pay? The upgrade co-pay from R is cheaper than the co-pay from K, so I’d expect that you should be getting the difference refunded. If not, I’d call in and talk to them about it, and maybe ask if they can cancel and then re-apply the instrument. That might also “fix the glitch” in terms of the list display.

Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
Perhaps the 11 people ahead of me are all non-status A/O fares? The reason I'd assume this is because, back when I was #3 and then even later as #9, there was PN9 for weeks and none of those same folks cleared, but more P+ seats kept filling up on the seatmap.
Again, PN is only applicable for Global Services instruments. Anyone on the list with a non-Global Service instrument would have been waiting for PZ.
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Old Dec 24, 19, 7:30 am
  #143  
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Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
As an update, I called UA and asked what the buyup was from K to the lowest P+ and it was $5.40 (!!). After negotiating a change fee waive with a supervisor, I'm now an R fare in what seems like an oversold P+ cabin. Hoping the app lists are glitchy & that this improves my odds somewhat. Worst case scenario, I'm in P+ vs my previous economy middle seat.
Out of curiosity, what was your original ticketing date?
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Old Dec 24, 19, 7:43 am
  #144  
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Originally Posted by DC2NYC View Post
As an update, I called UA and asked what the buyup was from K to the lowest P+ and it was $5.40 (!!).
Merry Christmas from United!
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Old Dec 24, 19, 9:04 am
  #145  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
Have you tried taking a look at the upgrade list? If you set a smartphone or tablet to a future date, you can get an idea of what the list looks like (although, it’s somewhat glitchy, as discussed). There will almost certainly be some upgrades, as the current inventory numbers virtually scream “oversold in Economy.” (J9 ... P9 PN0 O0 Y1 B1 M0). The only question is how many members with Premier status are ahead of you.

As for P+ being sold out — it’s a much smaller cabin, and the target market is different: PE is intended to be purchased by well-heeled leisure travelers, not business travelers. A Friday flight right after the holidays? I could easily see people booking into that cabin for a family return to the US.
Thanks for the thoughtful response jsloan
I've had a look at the upgrade list using the app glitch. Being 31st on the list is always reassuring .

But what I am seeing on the upgrade list are people with the same last name in groups of 2-4. Is it fair to assume that these are families with the same PNR applying for upgrades? If my understanding is correct, PNR's with multiple people are usually last to be upgraded since United usually release upgrade space one at a time? Or does this become moot since the PNR would be split at T-24?

Also on a side note did anybody have to call in to reapply an upgrade? After I flew my outbound leg, the waitlisted symbol disappeared from my reservation for the return leg and I had to call in to get it reapplied. It wouldn't let me apply it online. I suspect it has something to do GPU to PP conversion since the flight is next year. Any Ideas?
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Old Dec 24, 19, 9:08 am
  #146  
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Originally Posted by Lolauncher View Post
But what I am seeing on the upgrade list are people with the same last name in groups of 2-4. Is it fair to assume that these are families with the same PNR applying for upgrades?
Yes.
Originally Posted by Lolauncher View Post
If my understanding is correct, PNR's with multiple people are usually last to be upgraded since United usually release upgrade space one at a time? Or does this become moot since the PNR would be split at T-24?
That's not correct. UA may open PZ in bunches up to 9. Additionally, PNRs are split at check-in (not T-24).
Originally Posted by Lolauncher View Post
Also on a side note did anybody have to call in to reapply an upgrade? After I flew my outbound leg, the waitlisted symbol disappeared from my reservation for the return leg and I had to call in to get it reapplied. It wouldn't let me apply it online. I suspect it has something to do GPU to PP conversion since the flight is next year.
Yes, the system is currently broken and this is very common.
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Old Dec 24, 19, 9:21 am
  #147  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
Your position on the waitlist almost certainly should have changed. According to the published rules, the only way it’s possible for your waitlist position not to have changed is if everyone ahead of you is either on a Global Services instrument or has also purchased a P+ fare. So, I’m going with “glitch” here; it just seems really improbable that there was nobody else waitlisted for a Y->J upgrade on that flight.

Unfortunately, this is when the glitchiness really matters, because it definitely informs the recommendation about whether or not to cancel the upgrade request and wait for a buy-up offer.

Hey, did they mention a reduced co-pay? The upgrade co-pay from R is cheaper than the co-pay from K, so I’d expect that you should be getting the difference refunded. If not, I’d call in and talk to them about it, and maybe ask if they can cancel and then re-apply the instrument. That might also “fix the glitch” in terms of the list display.
I'll check out the official waitlist tonight since that's when it's officially published on the UA Flight Status pages & make the decision to strip the upgrade based on whether or not my position's improved or worsened... that way I can be targeted for check-in buyups at T-24

As for copay, the CSR mentioned that (if my upgrade clears) I'll only be charged the 30K miles & will get back the 600$ since I'm in P+ now thanks to that 5$ buyup. I'll bring it back up again with UA tonight based on what I see on the 12/27 status page.

Originally Posted by findark View Post
Out of curiosity, what was your original ticketing date?
JUL 27 was the original ticketing date. ~800$ for a 1way from LGA, stopping in DEN and SFO.
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Old Dec 24, 19, 10:28 am
  #148  
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Yeah, my only conclusion is this:

Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
Merry Christmas from United!
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Old Dec 24, 19, 10:46 am
  #149  
 
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EWR>DEL (UA 82) on 12/28 , husband and I are on separate reservations. My plus points upgrade cleared T-8 days, he has no United status. Chances that his will clear? I see 22 open seats on the seat map.
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Old Dec 24, 19, 12:15 pm
  #150  
 
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Originally Posted by kssan View Post
EWR>DEL (UA 82) on 12/28 , husband and I are on separate reservations. My plus points upgrade cleared T-8 days, he has no United status. Chances that his will clear? I see 22 open seats on the seat map.
100% chance of clearing, only 7 on the upgrade list with 23 seats remaining. Enjoy!
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