ironmanjt

Since #6 is #1 on the list this morning I assume they cleared the first five including you (congrats!) and it's still showing 16 empty seats.

Kacee

GOR, V is still #5 on that list.

But now has likely cleared, since name has disappeared.

gordita

yes sir!
woke up this morning and just as you/fumje had predicted, 9am EST brought the wonderful news on the upgrade going through. put a HUGE smile on my face as it's a grueling 14.5hr flight...

This is making me embolden to call UA and have them re-issue my inbound flight to LH prime by paying the fare difference and then applying for pluspoints upgrades for both sectors since they show 19 and 14 seats available.

Again, this forum has been a godsend and a wonderful community who's always willing to help - huge thanks!

jsloan

I’m still having a little trouble following. If you have a fare less than an H fare, you’d have to pay the fare difference to get to H before (a) they would be willing to convert it and (b) you’d be eligible to upgrade it. So, if that’s what the $400 is, then that makes sense.

If there are award seats available on United.com for the non-stop LH flight you want, that’s a pretty good indication that your upgrade would clear. But otherwise, you’re right — you’d buying a lottery ticket. That’s how many people felt about the GPU system that predated PlusPoints, as GPUs required a W fare on long-haul routes, but there was no guarantee your upgrade would clear, so some folks ended up paying hundreds of extra dollars for no tangible benefit.

bmw303

a lot of people still do pay the upgrade lottery tax given that sub w fares cost 80 plus points

gordita

1. I purchased a W class economy ticket and it's not eligible for upgrades on LH operated flights. the fare difference would be $301 (i was wrong about it being $400).
2. I have folks willing to help me with 80 plus points (40 for each leg JNB-FRA and FRA-SFO) but i'm still debating if I should go ahead and upgrade my flight to H class or higher and then apply for upgrade.
3. When i called LH yesterday, they mentioned they had 19 and 14 seats available but if there's an alternate method to glean how many seats are truly available for upgrades vs number of people on standby, it would be good to know (vs relying on agents).

hope this clarifies

jsloan

I can’t imagine paying more than maybe $50 to save 40 PlusPoints unless I was either (a) absolutely certain the flight would clear (e.g.., existing PZ space, or an empty cabin, not too distant, and PN9) or (b) planning to cancel the flight if the upgrade didn’t look likely.

OK, that makes sense then. UA is doing the right thing. It’s unfortunate that the fare difference is that high, but at least I understand where they’re coming from now.

That’s very generous.

I don’t think LH puts an explicit cap on the number of upgrades. What I would do is do a United.com award search for JNB-FRA and another for FRA-SFO. If business class awards exist on those segments, there’s a good chance you’d clear. If not, you might still clear but I’m not sure if I’d pay $300 to find out. (Others who upgrade from LH Economy to Business, feel free to chime in.

Kacee

Used to be that LH prioritized UA upgrades over its own elites, since UA pays them cash for the upgraded seats.

I'd still hesitate though - it's a bit of a sucker's game paying more just for a chance at an upgrade.

prometa

That implies you value PP at ~$12/ea? (Or at least, the risk adjusted value of them) You must have a lot of PP so they go unused or you rarely get upgraded? Over the last few months we are saving typically $1000-1200 in cash upgrade costs per 40 PP, with a 100% success rate (6/6). If UA would let flyers sell PP I would buy all I could possibly get at $12/ea

My advice, though, is check the price for R if available. On a recent flight K-W was $10 more that K-R. No brainer to guarantee at least a PE seat, plus saved 10PP per J UG. (For two travelers, we paid $600 to save 100PP on what would have been ~$3700 in K-J cash UG costs)

econ

Recent change? I thought it went down to Q. At least that's what UA website still says.

jsloan

Well, risk-adjusted is the key. I very, very rarely waitlist — I’ve cleared two this year only because it seemed that UA was going to be stubborn about PZ space even on a route where they have no realistic hope of filling the cabin. In most cases, I will continue to look around until I find PZ space. Then, I might be willing to pay a small amount extra for a W fare, but only if I expect to have a strong need for more PlusPoints.

Most of my flights are domestic, and my upgrade rate on them is approximately the same with or without PlusPoints.

OK, but most people aren’t taking 6 flights in “a few months” that cost $1000+ for upgrades and clear easily. Your experience is atypical.

Here I agree; when R is reasonable, it makes a lot of sense — but I doubt I’d buy up from K to do it.

My mistake. Yes, Q is eligible — I missed it when I reviewed them. gordita I hope that’s what UA was selling you, but just in case I wanted to call your attention to this correction. Sorry about that (and thanks, econ).

rewqion

About 20 people went through on this one today, including me. Think the full upgrade list was about 25 long, with 24/60 being the booked count before this mass got pushed through.

elmira56925

Wonder what my chance of 1K upgrade on the 8:30pm flight from MCO-DEN on 12/9 (my birthday) under a G fare. Any thoughts?

IAH-OIL-TRASH

Probably zero for a CPU. 7 seats left up front. Better w/ miles or PlusPoints, but a little early to give better/worse than 50/50

xiongrentmp

Hi all, I am complete new to this upgrade game and I am looking for some advice. I am booking a flight SFO - PVG for Dec 18 and it seems that it still has plenty of business seats left. I am wondering what is my chance of getting upgraded if I book a PE (O) ticket and spend 20k miles for the MUA upgrade waitlist? Is it still too early to say anything? To me the PE seat itself is not worth the price so if the chance of upgrade is slim I will not buy it. I rarely fly so I don't have any fly member status.

Thanks for any advice! Please let me know if there is any other information I should look for.

• J9
• JN9
• C9
• D9
• Z9
• ZN9
• P9
• PN0
• PZ0
• IN0
• I0
• O9
• ON9
• A9
• R9
• RN0