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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Jun 15, 22, 8:58 am   -   Wikipost
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Old May 4, 21, 10:43 am
  #136  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
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Originally Posted by Julie Patterson View Post
I have a question about an upcoming (5/20) nonstop flight from IAD to SFO on the Polaris-equipped 777. I booked a nonstop flight in L economy from DCA to SFO on 3/25 and applied PlusPoints. A week later my itinerary was changed (with no notification) to a layover in Orlando. Since I wasn't told about it, I didn't notice until April 9th and changed to the direct out of IAD, but I'm concerned it messed with my priority on the upgrade list. I'm 1k and used PlusPoints, but it looks like I'm 5th on the upgrade list with 7 seats left in the cabin and a little over 2 weeks to go. How accurate is the waitlist this far out, and does it make any sense that I'm so low on the upgrade list? Any guesses on how likely the upgrade might be? I'm considering just canceling the ticket and booking directly into first with miles (~100k miles).
Welcome to flyertalk!

When you look at your reservation, do you see it say that you have an upgrade requested with pluspoints or CPU? The pluspoints request likely fell off with the schedule change, and you'd need to reapply them (don't worry about the pending count).

It's plausible that you'd be 5 on the list, depending on the length of the list, even with pluspoints applied. If you're 5 now with seven seats available and two weeks to go, I'd put the chances of clearing at about 50% or a little below.
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Old May 4, 21, 10:47 am
  #137  
 
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Originally Posted by fumje View Post
Welcome to flyertalk!

When you look at your reservation, do you see it say that you have an upgrade requested with pluspoints or CPU? The pluspoints request likely fell off with the schedule change, and you'd need to reapply them (don't worry about the pending count).

It's plausible that you'd be 5 on the list, depending on the length of the list, even with pluspoints applied. If you're 5 now with seven seats available and two weeks to go, I'd put the chances of clearing at about 50% or a little below.
Thanks! I did reapply the upgrade. It's a little weird in the app, shows my original itinerary with a notice that it's out of sync, and then two flights for my new itinerary (one for the waitlisted first seat) but also shows I have 40 plus points on hold. I even called to make sure and to see if they could use the original booking date for my upgrade priority but no dice.
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Old May 4, 21, 10:49 am
  #138  
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Welcome to FT!, Julie Patterson

The waitlist is primarily determined by status, then method of upgrade, fare and then other factors including when requested. So the flight change reset the request time but the major factors are method of upgrade, status and fare. On a L fare (deep discount economy) you will be below essentially all other 1Ks using PlusPloints and all GSs (even on CPU).

The 7 seats -- is that looking at the seat map?? That may or may not be accurate. If you know how to turn on fare class inventory (Expert Mode) on UA (in your profile), you can get better data

5 out of 7 normally isn't great this far out. Some late purchasers will take seats, some will purchase cash upgrades, some late purchasing 1K/GS will jump ahead of you (higher status or higher fare). However, airlines are seeing lots of lst minute cancellations, so predictions are hard to make.

PreCovid, you might have been 50 or lower on PlusPoints, this was a difficult upgrade route.
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Old May 4, 21, 10:53 am
  #139  
 
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA View Post
Welcome to FT!, Julie Patterson

The waitlist is primarily determined by status, then fare and then other factors including when requested. So the flight change reset the request time but the major factors are status and fare. On a L fare (deep discount economy) you will be below essentially all other 1Ks using PlusPloints and all GSs (even on CPU).

The 7 seats -- is that looking at the seat map?? That may or may not be accurate. If you know how to turn on fare class inventory (Expert Mode) on UA (in your profile), you can get better data

5 out of 7 normally isn't great this far out. Some late purchasers will take seats, some will purchase cash upgrades, some late purchasing 1K/GS will jump ahead of you (higher status or higher fare). However, airlines are seeing lots of lst minute cancellations, so predictions are hard to make.
yeah the seat map shows 7 seats but looking at the actual upgrade list it says 41 out of 50 booked. Seems like using miles at this point might be the right call. I really didn't think this would be an issue during COVID but I guess people are resuming travel sooner than I expected!
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Old May 4, 21, 10:56 am
  #140  
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Originally Posted by Julie Patterson View Post
yeah the seat map shows 7 seats but looking at the actual upgrade list it says 41 out of 50 booked. ..
That is a more reliably number
Originally Posted by Julie Patterson View Post
Seems like using miles at this point might be the right call. ...
That would not change / improve anything
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Old May 4, 21, 10:57 am
  #141  
 
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It is actually J9 for this flight. But I would say that the chance is still 50/50. Hope that OP did select rows 20-22 E+ seats (Premium economy) in case that upgrade to FC fails.
Good luck.
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Old May 4, 21, 10:57 am
  #142  
 
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA View Post
That would not change / improve anything
can you say more? I mean canceling and rebooking the whole thing as a mileage award since that's available
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Old May 4, 21, 11:04 am
  #143  
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Originally Posted by Julie Patterson View Post
can you say more? I mean canceling and rebooking the whole thing as a mileage award since that's available
Miles for upgrading (what I thought you meant) or mileage award?
Would be odd for IN/I space (Business / First saver award) space and no PZ upgrade space. Is the award space standard or save?


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Old May 4, 21, 11:06 am
  #144  
 
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA View Post
Miles for upgrading (what I thought you meant) or mileage award?
Would be odd for IN/I space (Business / First saver award) space and no PZ upgrade space. Is the award space standard or save?


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thank you for the warning! I'll go silent after this mileage award,non saver
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Old May 4, 21, 11:17 am
  #145  
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Originally Posted by Julie Patterson View Post
..mileage award,non saver
Flight is
J9 JN9 C3 D0 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0
Purchasing F is $938 one-way (reusing the prior purchase as credit will decrease this)

Note if you have a Chase MP credit card, you can purchase F and use 93,800 miles to get statement credit (less than 100K standard award) and you earn elite credit for the flight
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Old May 4, 21, 11:17 am
  #146  
 
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Originally Posted by Julie Patterson View Post
thank you for the warning! I'll go silent after this mileage award,non saver
We can keep posting 😀😀
The mileage ticket costs 79.5 K miles (everyday award). The saver business/first class is only 25K miles, which is not available. If you cannot fly without the Polaris seat, either the everyday mileage award or cash purchase is the option left. If you can live with a Premium economy seat (rows 20-22), you can gamble with the PlusPoints upgrade.
Good luck.
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Old May 4, 21, 12:08 pm
  #147  
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Originally Posted by Kmxu View Post
.. The mileage ticket costs 79.5 K miles (everyday award). ...
That's the morning 763 (and paid first is $758), the evening 772 is now 98.1k, making the purchase and statement credit slightly cheaper (and earns elite credit) and now J8, C2!





Originally Posted by Kmxu View Post
..If you can live with a Premium economy seat (rows 20-22), you can gamble with the PlusPoints upgrade.
Only middle middles PremiumPlus left on the evening 772
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Old May 4, 21, 2:20 pm
  #148  
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Originally Posted by Kmxu View Post
We can keep posting 😀😀
The mileage ticket costs 79.5 K miles (everyday award). The saver business/first class is only 25K miles, which is not available. If you cannot fly without the Polaris seat, either the everyday mileage award or cash purchase is the option left. If you can live with a Premium economy seat (rows 20-22), you can gamble with the PlusPoints upgrade.
Good luck.
As a 1K, OP would have access to JN inventory for the award, meaning that it would be possible to book the 79.5K award and then do a same-day change to the preferred flight, if there is one seat still available on the day of travel. However, there's no guarantee that any seat would be available, and, of course, seat selection would be a crapshoot.

On a Polaris-equipped flight, with only 9 seats still available, I doubt any PlusPoints upgrades will clear. UA would rather sell time-of-departure upgrades.
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Old May 4, 21, 3:10 pm
  #149  
 
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA View Post
That's the morning 763 (and paid first is $758), the evening 772 is now 98.1k, making the purchase and statement credit slightly cheaper (and earns elite credit) and now J8, C2!





Only middle middles PremiumPlus left on the evening 772
what a small world we live in, I'm sorry to contribute for the worse but work just put me on that evening 772 upfront on a C class ticket this morning. For what it's worth I actually asked to be put in Y since I have a relative on this flight as well (by pure coincidence), but clearly that memo didn't make its way through.

Last edited by flyingrohit; May 4, 21 at 3:19 pm
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Old May 4, 21, 3:29 pm
  #150  
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Evening 772 IAD-SFO 20th May
J6 JN6 C0 $2,336 102.1K miles for JN
Morning 763
J7 JN7 C4 D1 $758 79.1K miles for JN

very early morning flight F sold out
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