jasondc

not the case for the narrow bodies, which really cant carry any appreciable cargo.

Cargo is important on the wide bodies and wide bodies can certainly accommodate cargo. It is important revenue on the wide bodies. But regardless, passenger revenue is always and has always been more important to the viability of these routes than the cargo business. If cargo really were that crucial, airlines would not be switiching increasingly to narrow body planes for these routes.

spin88

Yes. PMUA had a large set of airplanes that were used for Hawaii service, 777, 767s, and a sub-fleet of the very large 757 fleet. PMCO on the other hand (as have other airlines, see AS, which took its entire 737-800 fleet ETOPS) went with fleet wide certification. Some airlines (see AA) have gone with sub-fleets.

The claim was made -and what I responded to - that Hawaii operations were much more expensive, and so WN would have a hard time - due to ETOPS requirements.

Where this true - and its not - an airline like AS (or PMCO) would have not taken all A/C in a fleet with ETOPS certification. The process itself takes time - you have to have an ETOPS certified maintenance program, staff has to be trained on ETOPS procedures, and the planes require certain extra equipment (the one that impacts fuel burn, due to weight, is the raft, you can see it overhead, with the ugly bar lights on it in FC on the Sky interior 737s), then have to run demo flights to show FAA you are ETOPS compliant - but once it is done, the cost of running ETOPS planes is not materially greater than non-ETOPS planes.

Running Hawaii operations are slightly more expensive, but that is mostly because Hawaii is a high cost state, and in particular Jet A is expensive.

The bottom line is that Hawaii used to be United's market. They carried the most traffic there by far, and offered a high quality and distinctive product. They offered a good value proposition, and it in turn made United in general a more attractive airline (at least to me). WN is entering the market, a market that VX+AS have a strong presence in, and where HA with the A321neo is set to provide better/broader service starting in the spring. At this point United has no real value proposition in this market. Its service is worse than AS/VX/HA (or Delta and AA), its product is in the most part worse (especially the 77HD product), and WN with its strong tie in to its FF program, and in particular its companion pass, will offer yet another strong competitor.

Exleftseat

They did. With tons of perishables to the Islands, flowers and fruits coming back. The single aisles put a stop to it. Pacific Air Cargo now flies a 747 Cargo six times a week LAX-HNL-LAX, not sure if Kalitta or Polar still operate on a regular basis.

IAH-OIL-TRASH

It'll be interesting to see how the gate situation at OGG and HNL evolves in the next year or so with the arrival of more single-aisle aircraft. OGG is already max'd out at peak times. At HNL, I guess HA's 321s can be accommodated at the inter-island terminal, but sill HNL's kinda full already at peak times.

worldwidedreamer

Southwest offers a different product than United---for better or for worse---and they have their audience. United chooses to offer a competitive product, or not, which people can choose to buy.

As a United Gold Elite, I know that they most I'll get is free checked bags and maybe E+. A similar seat pitch across all of Y, and free checked bags, mean that WN could choose to compete. And WN will never place me on the dreaded UA high-density 777 subfleet.

As someone generally inclined to travel on UA, I think that the entry of WN means that they need to up their game to Hawaii from the West Coast.

spin88

+1. I view it very similarly, United really has to up their game. VX and HA with the A321neo offer wider, more comfortable seats. WN will offer free bags, and for elites companion passes and an exit row. Alaska has an E+ section with free food/drink, and more pitch, and gives everyone a MiaTai (kind of remand you of United in the past....).

Not exactly sure what United offers, except that horrible 77HD experience, and excepting a few odd 757s, a bunch of tight 737s.

pushmyredbutton

Frequency. That's huge to me, and I suspect others as well.

But I fail to see how the 757's are different than the 737's. If you're in E+, they're both bearable, and marginally better than what WN flies, and on par with AS premium seating. For those without status, I think the load factors speak louder than any of the hyperbole here. UA fills the planes. Pax complain, but still fly based on price and convenience.

Plus, a lot of these arguments at this point are moot since we don't even know the established pricing WN will come in at. In most cases currently, I find them higher than UA, even when you factor in checking a bag.

spin88

frequency is very important in business markets. Hell it was the entire CO play book for years. But for a leisure market, assuming the flight times are good (in my case allowing for a non-red-eye return) frequency IMHO has no real advantage.

Having a 6am, 7 am, 9 am, 11 am, 1 pm, 3 pm, 5 pm, and 7 pm flight to ORD is very important, as it allows me to fit flights in with work. That does not really apply to a leisure trip, I would much rather than a flight on a bigger, more comfortable, plane (what UA used to do) or a single flight on a better aircraft (what VX and HA do) vs. several small 737s.

rickg523

Southwest just offered Californians a Rapid Rewards Visa that earns a Companion Pass after 1 purchase (!) and 40000 points if you spend $1000 in the first 90 days. And of course multiple points per $ for WN airfare spend.
How don't you choose WN if they offer Hawaii with that kind of deal? I like AS, and choose them over WN (schedule dependant of course; pricing is almost always competitive) but they'll have to really offer something to beat half price for two tickets.

jasondc

frequency and capacity. That's what United offers. Looking towards March 2018, a peak month, UA has the most capacity in the market. 7 times as much as Virgin. Double American. Double Delta. With the capacity, gateways, and network behind the gateways, UA can offer more access to Hawaii from more destinations around the country than its peers can. With its network it can tap into higher yielding markets so it's not totally reliant solely on capacity saturated west coast markets to get traffic.
Does it offer the plushest service? No. The most luxurious service? Well, coming from Denver east you'll always have lie flats up front. So that's good. Mai tais in coach? Probably not. But when tour operators and others look to book, UA will have the capacity with the greatest frequency. Southwest will surely appeal to people, just as Alaska, with its 737s, has for years. But UA will more than hold its own, regardless of whether a few people on this board arent impressed with them.

HNLbasedFlyer

Mid-October is generally accepted as lowest part of low season in Hawaii (fewest visitor arrivals)

Lets see how UA on the slowest flying day of the week (Wednesday) fares today.

UA 1175 9:01am went out completely full. 737
UA 300 1:30pm has 10 seats on the seat map and 25 on standby 777
UA 1509 4:35pm has 18 open seats on the seat map and 15 standby 777
UA 1670 7:40pm has 21 open seats on the seat map with 9 standbys 737

So, on the slowest time of the year in Hawaii on the slowest day, you are more likely than not to have 10 or less available seats the entire day. UA isn't worried about SWA.

Now, if you want to talk about a company generally worried, it is Hawaiian (and since I worked there previously I have better insight than most) - they've taken a hit on the UA expansion news to Hawaii in combination with the SWA announcement - shook them up so much they just issued a dividend (first ever). Morgan Stanley just reduced the target price of the stock to $30 from $37 on Oct 13. The SWA/UA expansion is the big news at Hawaiian and not even a blip (except for here) for UA

JVPhoto

I'm a leisure 1K and I appreciate frequency. There's been aircraft swaps and other things that have allowed me to get where I want to the way I want to within the relative same amount of time.

minnyfly

No, the bottom line is that UA is still the largest carrier to Hawaii from the Mainland. And they still offer a unique product with their many lie-flats and widebodies. If product is be-all and end-all, why haven't they ceded that largest crown to "superior" products?

Considering WN's model of focusing on O&D and basing in secondary California markets, the carriers most worried about WN should be AS and HA. That's their prime market too. It's where AS expanded too, and that's where HA is and wants to expand as well. UA can fill their planes with connections all over the country, sheltering them from WN. HA can't, and AS can't either in their secondary markets. They must fly head-to-head.

IAH-OIL-TRASH

I think a route that WN could really do well on is LAS-OGG. Major operation there, no competition to OGG. HA might try it with neo, but with HA it would almost totally be dependent on LV and Maui residents, whereas WN could also draw from network.

I don't think UA sees WN as big competition. Alaska and HA are more worried. Virgin's kind of the oddball here - it'll be interesting to see if they pull out before AK kills the brand in 2019.

LIH Prem

Except, service will start with the 737-800.

https://www.southwestaircommunity.co...aby/ba-p/61199

-David