ermintrude

In brief, I like many fly UA because they used to have a great FF program. Also a good (not great) route network and member of star alliance.

However AS now has arguably a better FF program, treat their elites better (however no GS equivalent), have a good product (though no equivalent PS), competitive pricing and the merger with Virgin means that they now have a good US domestic route network (at least to where I travel).

DL, AA, WN, B6, the LCCs and others are driving many of UAs policies and pricing but haven't pulled that many UA elites away as far as I'm aware; however I think in the future AS will.

If I flew principally US domestic to the airports on Alaska's newly expanded network, AS would be my overall #1 choice of carrier; but I fly mostly internationally, so going forward I will likely spread out my business mostly between UA, AS and B6.

I wonder if UA rolls back recent elite benefit cuts or introduces new elite benefits to counter AS?

Adding expanded route map for convenience:
https://airwaysmag.com/industry/alas...irgin-america/

PsiFighter37

I don't think of AS as a national carrier (more of a West Coast-based airline). I do think UA will face more competition out of SFO in particular. LAX will continue to be challenging for them.

Tall Paul

I'd love to fly AS more but I've seldom found their pricing competitive, their flight options are more limited, and its tougher to get up front (I do mainly transcons). So far, I haven't seen this change much after the merger but I can hope.

char777

With the brand and consumer analysis conclusions that we've seen from the decision to retire the VX brand, it's pretty clear that AS is after a lower end clientele than UA, AA, and DL. It's maybe a notch above the WN crowd, but about a notch below B6 too. This is very apparent in that they've decided to not chase after the ultra high end flat bed transcon market.

The big money SFO tech crowd and all the corporate accounts will probably stay with UA or the other legacies, but the leisure VFR group and small business traffic may choose AS.

Cranky Flier had a better-than-I-could-do dissection of AS' forward-looking branding decisions:

http://crankyflier.com/2017/03/23/al...re-killing-it/

Make no mistake that AS+VX at least poses perhaps the first fullscale competition to UA at SFO since, perhaps ever. Before the AS+VX tie-up, if you didn't want to fly UA ex-SFO, while there were many options for you depending on where you flew, nobody could really be an answer to all of it (west coast short haul, transcons, and international long haul). They will make a play for UA's traffic, and I think they will succeed at pulling some of it away, but it's not going to be the GS/1K crowd.

emcampbe

AS would never work for me - even domestically, don't fly to half the places I go, nor my home airport. Not surprising though, given their options out east (and I mean east part of the country - east of Mississippi, let's say, not just east coast) are limited, both in frequencies to the places they do serve, and destinations served. Don't even know the closest airport they serve to my home airport (CVG). If I lived anywhere on the west coast and traveled within the west coast primarily, with infrequent travel out east, then I'd definitely consider them. But beyond there's no way I could ever fly them regularly.

BearX220

Outlook for AS in the context suggested by OP is uncertain.

Pros:

** Best remaining FF program in the country
** Genuine heartfelt service, far happier culture than UA
** They historically have taken great care of elites
** Rich international partner network
** Loyal rooting section in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska.

Cons:

** Network has little utility for customers outside west coast corridor
** DL partnership ending, reducing effective reach even further
** F class product uncompetitive with Mint, p.s., etc. and will stay that way
** Rollout of E+ means less F, probable negative impact on elite upgrades
** Difficult to forecast how AS and VX blend well
** San Francisco customer base indifferent, perhaps hostile to AS brand (as it wiped out VX)

VX picked up a fair amount of Bay Area UA elites when UA imploded circa 2011-12, and not coincidentally swung to a consistent profit for the first time. AS may manage the same, assuming the switchers don't care about own-metal international flying or a state-of-the-art first class product. But for customers outside SFO/PDX/SEA and Alaska itself, AS is a narrow-focus, niche case.

I moved camp from SEA to ORD last year and sadly AS is now nearly useless to me. Same is true for most US flyers. If I were running the thing I'd want to make the airline more useful to people outside the western time zone, first thing. Until then I don't think UA, damaged and disliked as it is, will suffer much from Alaska.

kale73

My most frequent route is ABQ (alt: PHX) - MSY. On AS, it looks like I'd be connecting in SEA. Makes perfect sense for me.

char777

Short of trying to book AA and credit everything to AS, AS isn't trying to be the airline for any of you. Unlike UA, AS isn't trying to be all things to all people, and they can certainly still run a successful airline by focusing primarily on point of sale west of the Cascades and Sierras. Just because Microsoft had 80% marketshare of computer sales didn't mean Apple couldn't make a multibillion dollar business selling Macs.

Wondering why AS doesn't serve your needs in any of those places would be like any of us in the west wondering why we'd ever fly B6, or me wondering why I can't figure out an easy way to fly NZ metal on a DEN-CDG itinerary.

Hipplewm

Same - I am in CHS which Alaska serves 5 days a week on the "Boeing express" CHS-SEA non stop and just from watching in the terminal 50% of the people in the waiting area have on Boeing SWAG of some sort.

So, to get to Atlanta, assuming I don't want to go on the 2 days they have no flights, I would have to fly to Seattle, then back to Atlanta - OR - take one of Delta's 7 non stop flights all 7 days a week. Same for Wash DC area - take United to IAD or American to DCA or WN to BWI and I don't have to go thru Seattle.

Fredd

Mrs. Fredd and I are retired leisure flyers who status-matched to AS MVP Gold 75K in our last year as UA 1Ks. Since then we've requalified twice and will do so again this year.

For anybody who doesn't know, one has to fly 75K miles solely on AS metal to reach top tier. The other route to MVP Gold 75K is to fly 90K miles on AS and its partner airlines (AS is not a member of an alliance).

We have found enough bargain international business class fares on various partner airlines over the past three years to top up our accounts nicely while visiting some amazing places; however, that route to elite status clearly isn't for everybody.

For the moment, we seem to fit the customer profile AS is seeking. Gary Leff just analyzed it as follows: Alaska Airlines Re-affirms Commitment to Generous Frequent Flyer Program and First Class Upgrades, and made abundant use of an analysis in Skift: Alaska Air Focuses on Customer Experience and Loyalty as it Integrates Virgin America.

For us AS has put the fun back in flying, complete with unfailingly happy and helpful employees (Yes, really!), and very generous perks and rewards. The fact that we live 30 minutes from BLI makes it close to a perfect fit. Still, it won't fit the travel patterns of many others. If that means AS continues to focus on keeping customers like us happy, so much the better.

mahasamatman

That's great for you and people like you, but I'd say that covers less than 10% of United flyers, and that's why I feel there will be little effect.

HoyaSFOIAD

I'm UA GS and fly primarily SFO ->EWR/IAD/BOS, up and down the west coast, and then about once a month or so international and other domestic cities. I'll admit that I am happy as a GS but I certainly have taken a look at AS network out of curiousity recently. Love the airline but out of SFO it's simply too hard to compare to UAs frequency, premium cabins and network, especially true as a GS/1K. Now all that being said, there's certainly a segment from sfo that travels somewhat frequently and depending on their usual destinations, AS would be a good alternative. If I was a biz traveler that would only reach Gold on UA, I'd absolutely think about it.

qukslvr619

If you need to travel east of the Mississippi, then the only option for AS flyers is AA. The reciprocity of the linkup, with respect to Elite benefits, is not attractive in my opinion.

The one thing that AS brings to the table for me is the planned STLSAN nonstop. I don't mind connecting through SFO, but a nonstop option is nice. My wishlist for UA at STL, besides reducing the 50 seaters, is a STLLAX nonstop. I doubt there is incentive for UA to add this route though since its saturated with AA and WN.

I don't think AS will have a huge pull of UA elites even post merger completion. If you aren't flying AS/VX currently, unless AS does a huge expansion and starts Asia service, not much is going to change.

SF1K

+1 on the below, well a number of years away from retirement, but making a big switch tonSS being my #1 choice don't see UA changing their treatment of 1K customers any time soon (upgrades almost impossible out of SFO even using confirmed instruments, no award space in premium cabin UA metal TATL, horrible boarding experience, etc). Flying AS is just such a breath of fresh air. Just took them from SMF to Maui with my sister and brother-in-law, and they service was outstanding. I was the only Gold on the flight - the attitude of the FAs is just night and day.

I'll now now be concentrating on always getting at least Gold and enjoys my trips on AS/VX a 100 times more than UA.

aoumd

Back when all the speculation was whether or not VX would merge with AS or B6, I was kinda hoping for a 3-way AS+VS+B6 merger. Many I spoke to thought that would further reduce competition in the US airline oligopoly landscape, but the discussion in this thread still makes me think it would have improved competition by creating a fifth true nationwide network carrier (fourth if you consider WN a different animal), with the resources to ramp up true hub competition in key markets such as JFK, BOS, LAX, SFO, SEA. You'd end up with something that would have even more destinations available (even if you had to connect somewhere) out of the UA strongholds in SFO and NYC (and LAX too), which would make it a realistic choice for corporate accounts and HVFs to jump ship from UA towards. You'd also have something BIG enough to, after any merger consternations were behind them, raise the capital to build a network of TPAC, TATL and South American routes, and even sooner leverage the partner deals that both AS and B6 have to create a very quick global network from the passenger's perspective, even if TATL/TPAC/SA is done on partner metal exclusively at first.

Oh well, what's done is done, unless AS (now with VS) and B6 decide to dance later on in order to make something with hubs on both coasts.