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Design the new process to solve IVDB (a constructive, positive thread)

Design the new process to solve IVDB (a constructive, positive thread)

Old Apr 13, 2017, 1:42 pm
  #91  
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Originally Posted by CAPT Tee
Give the airline reason for charge one more fee is not the solution.
Aw, just an extra 25 bucks to guarantee you won't get roughed up by some rentacops at the GA's direction?? That's a great value!! @:-)
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Old Apr 13, 2017, 3:48 pm
  #92  
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Originally Posted by eng3
I see no problem with the current IDB process. No process will ever prevent an idiot DYKWIA from refusing to move from his seat. (How that is dealt with is another issue. If you don't want to physically remove him, you could just cancel the flight and piss off several hundred more people) The only way would be to remove IDB all together and never overbook. But ofcourse this will eventually drive ticket prices up and increase delays in the process which will also piss off people. You can't make everyone happy. Acting like a child won't make things any better.
The problem is the existence of IDBs. Airlines should be required to VDB seats as needed except in very specific and unusual instances.
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Old Apr 13, 2017, 6:19 pm
  #93  
 
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Originally Posted by ellenyc
To me, that is the answer. And I can't see those VDBs ever routinely hitting outlandish amounts, as someone flying on a cheap ticket facing a minimal delay will have a low reserve price. It will only be in rare instances that the reserve price has to go above $1500 or so, an amount that gets paid now in certain cases.
There will almost always be someone on any flight:
1. For whom VDB compensation being offered is equal to 2 weeks' pay or more (teens, college students, etc)
2. Who is retired and doesn't have to be at their destination immediately (flexible schedule)
3. Who is mileage running and WANTS to get kicked off so that he/she can use the money to do more mileage runs

Those people would submit low bids, and would be first to get booted from the plane. If not, many people going on vacation would gladly take $2000-$5000 if it gets that high. That money could pay for many nice dinners, some extra hotel nights, etc.

I volunteered for VDB multiple times last year because I fell into category (3). I never actually got selected but I was one of the first people to talk to the GA to volunteer to get booted in exchange for money.
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Old Apr 13, 2017, 6:27 pm
  #94  
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Originally Posted by tarlinian
I think it's important to note that in the current business environment, the "natural market outcome" for IDBs is likely significantly higher overbooking rates and little to no meaningful IDB compensation. (i.e., with no regulation on IDB compensation requirements the CoC would likely say we can bump you for any reason we want at any time and you will be refunded and/or moved to a flight of our convenience). The domestic airlines have more than enough market power to pull this off. (Whether this immense market power is an inherent problem depends on how you think markets with natural monopolies should be regulated.)

The existing IDB regulations are better than nothing, but not good enough. IMO, the right solution is to massively increase the minimum required IDB compensation ($10k+) so that you would always be able to VDB folks for less than the cost of an IDB.

I think the other interesting problem brought on by this situation is how to handle the possibility of denied boarding once you get on the plane. As many of you have noted, at that point negotiations for VDB become much more complicated. If a starting offer doesn't immediately result in sufficient volunteers. I think at that point, direct negotiations should occur with only the people who volunteered for a possible bump during check-in or on the app. Since the list of these passengers is pre-populated, it should be possible to have new itineraries available for inspection.
bolding mine

I was on a UA flight where they needed 5 volunteers because weather at ORD had deteriorated since boarding began. It was no more complicated than doing this at the gate. They offered 5 roundtrip tickets on UA anywhere in the lower 48 and at least 5 people volunteered. I was one of those five. We were re-accommodated but obviously not on the same flights as we were not all going to the same place.

So, if they don't get enough volunteers, and let's say for the sake of example that 3 more are needed, I say, get on the PA and announce "we need 3 more volunteers and we need to know how much compensation is required to convince you to get off; please ring your call button if your travel plans are flexible at all". A few people will ring their call buttons (anything from $500 UA money + miles or a free ticket, to a million dollars), so the GA just goes from one person to the next, write down seat number and dollar amount/general offer, then go back to the gate and figure out who should be selected for VDB (obviously the $500 people not the one million dollar people), then go back on the plane and resolve the situation and get your needed volunteers. It's not that hard.

An app is utterly useless in a fluid situation where you are on the plane and suddenly it is overweight because of additional fuel requirements due to weather. @:-)
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Old Apr 13, 2017, 6:47 pm
  #95  
 
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Originally Posted by Kevin AA
It was no more complicated than doing this at the gate.
This whole issue has never been about VDB/IDB at the gate. It has been about how you handle VDB/IDB in the post-Dao paradigm* when people are already on the plane.

*Post-Dao paradigm meaning that pax will be apprehensive to leave their seats, leading to most negotiations around alternative travel plans, hotel stays, layover duration, etc. done in the plane with everyone in attendance.
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Old Apr 13, 2017, 6:52 pm
  #96  
 
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Originally Posted by Jabarie MacQuarrie
Just raise the VDB offer until someone accepts. No need for anything complicated.
I agree, but there is always the small possibility that passengers could collude to drive the price to an outrageous level.

Take off the legal cap on VDB compensation. If an airline must still IDB a ticketed and confirmed passenger, then have a set IDB payout of $10,000 for up to a 4 hour delay, $25,000 for more than 4 hours. We won't change this practice unless we change the risk / reward math for the airlines.

Originally Posted by pinniped
Aw, just an extra 25 bucks to guarantee you won't get roughed up by some rentacops at the GA's direction?? That's a great value!! @:-)
It's called protection money. A staple racket for organized crime. So maybe this does make some sense.

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Apr 13, 2017 at 10:24 pm Reason: merging consecutive posts by same member
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Old Apr 13, 2017, 7:09 pm
  #97  
 
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What's interesting is that as the compensation for VDB goes up, not only does it increase the likelihood of getting a volunteer, but it also increases the pool of volunteers who would accept contingent on the accommodations provided by the carrier. Does the airline then attempt to determine what all said accommodations are in order to determine which pax is the least costly to VDB?

I can see a new area for travel blogging: how much free swag one can get negotiating a VDB. It would be pretty funny to watch, akin to those crazy bazaars where haggling is the norm. Not sure how time efficient it would be though, especially if has to be done in the plane because pax are already seated.
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Old Apr 13, 2017, 7:12 pm
  #98  
 
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Just make IDB a flat penalty of $10k and rebooking on any flight of the passengers choosing. Then let the airlines figure out the rest. They will be incented to come up with a good VDB program.
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Old Apr 13, 2017, 10:22 pm
  #99  
 
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The simple solution to the post Dao paradigm is that no one is allowed to board the plane until the seating manifest is final. The result will be that if you are in group 5 getting your bag into an overhead compartment will be the least of your worries
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Old Apr 13, 2017, 11:04 pm
  #100  
 
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Originally Posted by deskover54
Just make IDB a flat penalty of $10k and rebooking on any flight of the passengers choosing. Then let the airlines figure out the rest. They will be incented to come up with a good VDB program.
No absolute dollar amounts should EVER be written into any law. There's this thing called inflation. You need to have the penalty track the prices of tickets, so tying it to the most expensive fare available on the flight is better.
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Old Apr 14, 2017, 1:05 am
  #101  
 
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Originally Posted by IamBartman
What's interesting is that as the compensation for VDB goes up, not only does it increase the likelihood of getting a volunteer, but it also increases the pool of volunteers who would accept contingent on the accommodations provided by the carrier. Does the airline then attempt to determine what all said accommodations are in order to determine which pax is the least costly to VDB?

I can see a new area for travel blogging: how much free swag one can get negotiating a VDB. It would be pretty funny to watch, akin to those crazy bazaars where haggling is the norm. Not sure how time efficient it would be though, especially if has to be done in the plane because pax are already seated.

Ever increasing amounts of VDB has limits if issued in one year expiry "UnitedBucks". The passenger that could fully utilize $2000 in ETC very likely has opted in well before offers getting that high.


Separately no IDB allowed for those under 21 due to hotel registration policies.

I have found ORD agents to be very generous in offers. In MSP, home, the UA agents act as though the compensation is coming from their own pockets.
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Old Apr 14, 2017, 1:07 am
  #102  
 
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Originally Posted by Soccerdad1995
I agree, but there is always the small possibility that passengers could collude to drive the price to an outrageous level.
What is the possible mechanism for such collusion? There is none.
Even if you are talking about a conspiracy to buy up the entire plane and drive the price up, you'd have to collude before you know it will pay off on that particular flight. And you'd split those one or two awards with what, the entire plane's passengers? And the airline always has the option of canceling the flight. There are so many options that there should never ever be any cap, as is the case with virtually every market that you interact with numerous times daily without batting an eye.
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Old Apr 14, 2017, 1:16 am
  #103  
 
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Originally Posted by erlich
What is the possible mechanism for such collusion? There is none.
Even if you are talking about a conspiracy to buy up the entire plane and drive the price up, you'd have to collude before you know it will pay off on that particular flight. And you'd split those one or two awards with what, the entire plane's passengers? And the airline always has the option of canceling the flight. There are so many options that there should never ever be any cap, as is the case with virtually every market that you interact with numerous times daily without batting an eye.
There's some interesting game theory associated with this scenario (trying to corner the market for VDBs) as well. What if you actually get ~170 people together in a group and they conspire to buy out an entire 737-900 and force the VDB price up? First of all, if one of the people has a car crash on the way to the airport and is carrying two others and all 3 of them no show, no one gets anything. So I would hope that all of them had fully refundable tickets. Second, what if one of the 170 is a defector? They all agree that they will bid $50000 to get off the plane, but this person bids $49999, and instead of sharing the profits with everyone, he pockets it. So what do the other 169 people do? Sue him? If they do that, they'd have to admit that they colluded first...
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Old Apr 14, 2017, 1:28 am
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Originally Posted by STS-134
There's some interesting game theory associated with this scenario (trying to corner the market for VDBs) as well. What if you actually get ~170 people together in a group and they conspire to buy out an entire 737-900 and force the VDB price up? First of all, if one of the people has a car crash on the way to the airport and is carrying two others and all 3 of them no show, no one gets anything. So I would hope that all of them had fully refundable tickets. Second, what if one of the 170 is a defector? They all agree that they will bid $50000 to get off the plane, but this person bids $49999, and instead of sharing the profits with everyone, he pockets it. So what do the other 169 people do? Sue him? If they do that, they'd have to admit that they colluded first...
Exactly. The reason why no caps (and hence no IDB's) is the right solution, aside from the obvious angle of freedom from violence (broadly defined), is that it forces the right allocation and pricing. Say VDB gets too "expensive," then the airlines will adjust accordingly their planning and other backup alternatives. You give rational agents any form of "out" then you are simply introducing perverse incentives that ultimately lead to, as we see, grossly unwelcome results.
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Old Apr 14, 2017, 1:33 am
  #105  
 
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Originally Posted by erlich
Exactly. The reason why no caps (and hence no IDB's) is the right solution, aside from the obvious angle of freedom from violence (broadly defined), is that it forces the right allocation and pricing. Say VDB gets too "expensive," then the airlines will adjust accordingly their planning and other backup alternatives. You give rational agents any form of "out" then you are simply introducing perverse incentives that ultimately lead to, as we see, grossly unwelcome results.
I would note that, in practice, any scenario in which the VDB price gets extremely high, say into the $5000-10000 range, would likely have an extremely high number of people who absolutely have to get where the flight is going and have schedules which cannot change. Said flight would also be likely to have a lot of pax who paid for full fare tickets, and would be turning a huge profit anyway. The airline would be able to afford to pay large amounts of VDB compensation in such a scenario.
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