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IAD-SMF nonstop, on time %?

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Old Mar 8, 2017, 6:10 pm
  #1  
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IAD-SMF nonstop, on time %?

I'm unable to pull up on-time percentages for the IAD-SMF nonstop. I'm booked on it Friday, but I can't compare its on-time tendencies because it's not showing as a n/s today or yesterday/Monday, and when doing a dummy booking on UA's website, it doesn't show any percentages.

Would this flight be on time typically, for anyone who has experience with this flight? It's either this or DCA-XXX-SMF and having to forfeit a work day – the nonstop concept is nice, and I wouldn't have to miss work.

Thanks!
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Old Mar 8, 2017, 7:08 pm
  #2  
 
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Originally Posted by MrAndy1369
I'm unable to pull up on-time percentages for the IAD-SMF nonstop. I'm booked on it Friday, but I can't compare its on-time tendencies because it's not showing as a n/s today or yesterday/Monday, and when doing a dummy booking on UA's website, it doesn't show any percentages.

Would this flight be on time typically, for anyone who has experience with this flight? It's either this or DCA-XXX-SMF and having to forfeit a work day – the nonstop concept is nice, and I wouldn't have to miss work.

Thanks!
I never pay attention to those stats anyways. Most of the time I try to see the on-time %, it says there is not enough information. I find it as useful / informative as the cleanliness ratings at NYC restaurants
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Old Mar 8, 2017, 7:22 pm
  #3  
 
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Just go to FlightTracker and look at the flight number, it goes back a few weeks.
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Old Mar 8, 2017, 7:30 pm
  #4  
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Originally Posted by MFLetou
Just go to FlightTracker and look at the flight number, it goes back a few weeks.
It only shows tomorrow and Friday. It's not a daily flight, it seems, so there's nothing on Flightaware (UA291).
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Old Mar 8, 2017, 9:27 pm
  #5  
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Try flightstats? They typically base it on the previous 2 months, I think, and update every couple of weeks (I.e., now, they'll probably be showing stats for Jan. 1 - Feb. 28).

For those not seeing them online, UA tends to change the flight numbers often for the flights leaving at or around the same time. Some
people have hypothesized it's so UA doesn't have to show the on-time percentages - the flight needs to meet certain criteria for them to have to show it. Flighhstats will still show it, based on flight number, but if there's not a lot of data, it's hard to say.

Of course, in the end, it's hard to say anyway as the generic stats mean nothing. You can have a flight that gets delayed 90% of the time, but that's irrelevant if you're on it the day it is on time. Or the other way, the flight that's on time 90% of the time - you probably don't care if you're on it the one day it's 2 hours late.
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Old Mar 8, 2017, 9:55 pm
  #6  
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The plane is scheduled to do two other transcons earlier in the day (PHL - SFO | SFO - IAD). Those are generally well padded and should have minimal operational issues.

Don't see a big risk in this flight being significantly delayed unless there's an unforeseen mechanical event or aircraft swap. Highly likely you'll get home faster than stopping somewhere.

And, if the plane fails to maintain schedule up-line delaying your flight, you can always change to a 1-stop option.
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Old Mar 8, 2017, 10:10 pm
  #7  
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It's not very good or consistent.

Code:
   month    | canx |  a14   | flights 
------------+------+--------+---------
 2016-01-01 |      | 75.0%  |       4
 2016-04-01 |      | 100.0% |      26
 2016-05-01 |      | 83.3%  |      30
 2016-06-01 |      | 76.7%  |      30
 2016-07-01 |      | 50.0%  |      30
 2016-08-01 |      | 75.9%  |      29
 2016-09-01 | 6.9% | 79.3%  |      29
 2016-10-01 |      | 83.9%  |      31
 2016-11-01 |      | 89.3%  |      28
 2016-12-01 |      | 60.0%  |      30
 2017-01-01 |      | 100.0% |       3
canx = cancellations
a14 = arriving within 14 minutes of schedule (DOT standard)
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Old Mar 9, 2017, 4:55 am
  #8  
 
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Originally Posted by belynch
The plane is scheduled to do two other transcons earlier in the day (PHL - SFO | SFO - IAD).
PHL-SFO-IAD-SMF is not always the aircraft routing. Other days, I see EWR-ATL-IAD-MCO-IAD-SMF and scenarios where the aircraft starts the day in BOS before making its way through the system.
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Old Mar 9, 2017, 7:19 am
  #9  
 
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This is a low priority flight. In the past plane does not go onward and usually sits until next morning. Of course little or no connections upon arrival into SMF. That being said probably 20% of the time the plane gets taken by ops and it goes on delay. Eventually and usually timely it does get to SMF. That's how I always perceive the flight.
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Old Mar 11, 2017, 4:06 pm
  #10  
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Trip report: left about 5 minutes early, very light flight. We had the middle seat to ourselves (I was in 7F). Great crew, comfortable, was powered up all the way. Impressive flight overall!
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Old Mar 11, 2017, 7:36 pm
  #11  
 
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Originally Posted by MrAndy1369
Trip report: left about 5 minutes early, very light flight. We had the middle seat to ourselves (I was in 7F). Great crew, comfortable, was powered up all the way. Impressive flight overall!
Glad it all worked out. I have taken this flight only once and my flight arrived early also.
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