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Where do the aircraft go for 9 weeks?

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Old Jan 20, 2017, 8:59 pm
  #1  
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Where do the aircraft go for 9 weeks?

Every year from Jan 01 to Mar 06 the redeye flight from SAN to IAD disappears. This is a planned UA route change. Where does this metal go during these 9 weeks. What is the required route that makes this particular route impossible to fly.

I fly SAN to IAD weekly and it is ALWAYS full. So this is not a late winter passenger capacity on the route issue.

Basically during these 9 weeks I am required to fly SAN-EWR-IAD. Yuck.
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Old Jan 20, 2017, 9:06 pm
  #2  
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Originally Posted by Paolo01
Every year from Jan 01 to Mar 06 the redeye flight from SAN to IAD disappears. This is a planned UA route change. Where does this metal go during these 9 weeks. What is the required route that makes this particular route impossible to fly.

I fly SAN to IAD weekly and it is ALWAYS full. So this is not a late winter passenger capacity on the route issue.

Basically during these 9 weeks I am required to fly SAN-EWR-IAD. Yuck.
My guess is that they don't see the demand so they put aircraft on routes with higher demand or use the time to do heavy maintenance or make the travel experience more miserable on the plane for passengers.
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Old Jan 20, 2017, 10:37 pm
  #3  
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Originally Posted by Paolo01
I fly SAN to IAD weekly and it is ALWAYS full. So this is not a late winter passenger capacity on the route issue.
Full does not equal profitable.
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Old Jan 21, 2017, 6:27 am
  #4  
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Demand drops across the board during the winter. Where possible airlines cut capacity to maintain margins. And the airlines also use to fleet downtime to perform maintenance tasks on planes more aggressively than in the summer when the frames are needed to carry passengers. New seats, IFE or wifi installs typically run more aggressively during the winter than the summer.

UA has way more wide-body aircraft in for mods now than it will during the summer. LH Group is racing to complete as many wifi installs as it can before April or May come around and demand rises. Just the way the industry works.
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Old Jan 21, 2017, 8:01 am
  #5  
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Originally Posted by mahasamatman
Full does not equal profitable.
I do not know, however, I do not think that the SAN-IAD route is a loss route. The redeye was often sold out and business seats were often sold out as well, a week before the flights.

I'd love to find the data behind profitability on routes though I am sure that is a tightly held industry secret.
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Old Jan 21, 2017, 11:57 am
  #6  
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Originally Posted by Paolo01
I do not know, however, I do not think that the SAN-IAD route is a loss route. The redeye was often sold out and business seats were often sold out as well, a week before the flights. ...
Loss is not the issue, which is "more" profitable or which is "less" profitable.

Originally Posted by Paolo01
... I'd love to find the data behind profitability on routes though I am sure that is a tightly held industry secret.
You are very right about that!
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Old Jan 21, 2017, 3:25 pm
  #7  
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Originally Posted by Paolo01
Every year from Jan 01 to Mar 06 the redeye flight from SAN to IAD disappears. This is a planned UA route change. Where does this metal go during these 9 weeks. What is the required route that makes this particular route impossible to fly.

I fly SAN to IAD weekly and it is ALWAYS full. So this is not a late winter passenger capacity on the route issue.

Basically during these 9 weeks I am required to fly SAN-EWR-IAD. Yuck.
Where does the metal go? Others can give their suggestions, but unless in UA fleet planning, no one knows for sure. For whatever reason, UA doesn't see it as profitable or worth the use of the plane.

Originally Posted by mahasamatman
Full does not equal profitable.
This. Times a 100.

Full has no correlation to profit. What is the average fare paid, and how full is the aircraft? It costs $X for UA to run that flight. If the average fare times number of pax doesn't = X, that flight is not profitable.

Originally Posted by Paolo01
I do not know, however, I do not think that the SAN-IAD route is a loss route. The redeye was often sold out and business seats were often sold out as well, a week before the flights.

I'd love to find the data behind profitability on routes though I am sure that is a tightly held industry secret.
A lot of people, not the least of which are UAs competitors, would love to find that out. For that reason, it is a tightly held secret. If you'd like to know, you'll need to get a job in UA revenue management.
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Old Jan 21, 2017, 4:00 pm
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Originally Posted by mahasamatman
Full does not equal profitable.
Yup, in the same way a "busy" restaurant doesn't mean it is profitable.
Scott Adams talks about it in his book How to fail at almost everything and still win big (quite an interesting read).
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Old Jan 21, 2017, 5:25 pm
  #9  
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Where do the aircraft go? They fly south for the winter. Nw you know!
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