fumje

My observation is that most of the business class cabin fills up within 2-3 weeks of departure. Of course, that may not constitute most of business travel (certainly not most of mine), but that's the relevant business travel.

jsloan

Thanks. I probably should have said, “most international business class tickets are purchased within 2 weeks of departure,” and 3 weeks would be even more accurate. What you’re describing is exactly what I’m talking about. That may not be “most business travel,” but it’s the travel that’s revelant to the OP.

findark

It's expensive. Anything better than $2,250 h/r/t and I would feel like I scored.

Kacee

I would refine this further for purposes of this discussion, and say that a relatively empty business class cabin prior to T-21 doesn't necessarily mean it's a good upgrade candidate. This is where the inventory buckets really matter . . . If you see a TPAC booked only 24/48 at T-21, but inventory is Z0 P0, that indicates UA expects strong sales of business class tickets over the last three weeks such that the cabin will fill without discounting, and there's a pretty decent chance their prediction will be accurate.

fumje

True, the fare buckets are a valuable sign to watch for inferring loads and expectations of loads. (Reading too quickly with the 24 and 48 numbers in your example, thought at first you meant 21hr instead of 21d, which seemed a bit pessimistic for the upgrade chances. )

In The 216

This is essentially my point.

I would also point out that the J cabin filling up closer to departure does not necessarily indicate business travelers making bookings. It can be GPU's clearing, people taking buy-up's, I/IN opening, etc., etc. I flew in R last week (using a GPU) to Europe and back. I did not show up on the upgrade list as cleared on either transatlantic segment, which I found odd as I had always in the recent past.

jsloan

GPUs that clear in advance on non-CPU routes will not appear on the cleared list. The only ones that show up there are gate upgrades.

jjmoore

Can someone explain to me why a GS with XN + GPU would clear prior to a GS with W + GPU? My Mrs. cleared as such this summer on one TPAC leg (EWR-HKG), and it appears that there are a couple GS XN + GPU that will clear prior to me on my SIN-LAX coming up in a couple weeks....... GS agent was perplexed, but told me to be hopeful in the system that revenues would be cleared prior to awards........

fumje

I would say that in most of my experiences the J cabin filling up in the weeks before departure is usually not GPUs clearing. And although I'm unsure what percentage of each flight is award travel, I would be surprised if I/IN bookings occupy significant front cabin space on a typical flight. Can't think of too many more etc.'s.

What gives you this impression? (Curious; no answers)

jjmoore

Conversation with GS agent revealed that there are 4 XN + GPU and 2 W + GPU (my wife and myself). Earlier this year, my wife cleared ahead of me on her XN + GPU while I was booked Q + GPU and cleared several days later. My ticket was booked prior to her XN ticket too... so nothing makes sense about how they queue us up to clear into PN.

I doubt there will end up being a single I/IN on this flight... right now, I'm feeling that if we clear, it will be at the gate given only 15/48 available at this point. GS agent a couple weeks back told me nobody has cleared into PN as of yet, so all confirmed seats are revenue or JN at this point.

Hipplewm

Does XN + GPU clear into I/IN or PN? if it clears into any bucket other than R, then there is no telling what bucket opened first for them to clear into...

fumje

I would have thought PN?

Hipplewm

Sorry, i meant PN, I had R on the brain from searching....

I mean until we know for certain, could just be 2 different fare buckets opening at different times.

bobsim

Hi everyone,

Been a long time lurker on this forums but decided to do my first post to get feedback on my upgrade plans for my upcoming flight.

I am a 1K traveling a week from now on 12/6 from IAD - NRT - SIN.
I am on a W fare and my GPU was applied on booking from IAD - NRT, with NRT - SIN on NH.

I would ideally like to travel through LAX (IAD - LAX - SIN) and I've been monitoring the load for UA37 from LAX - SIN on 12/6 with the intention of doing a SDC to IAD - LAX - SIN if R space is released within SDC window.

Here's my conundrum:
If R space does not open up by T-12, should I still SDC and try my luck on the waitlist?

My thinking right now is that if P still remains >5 at T-24 and if the load for economy is relatively light (where getting an entire row in E+ to myself is a possibility, then I should go for the SDC.

What do you guys think?

UA37 LAX - SIN:

• J9
• JN9
• C9
• D9
• Z9
• ZN9
• P9
• PN0
• R0
• RN0
• IN0
• I0
• Y9
• YN9
• B9
• M9
• E9
• U9
• H9
• HN9
• Q9
• V9
• W9
• S9
• T6
• L3
• K0
• G0
• N9
• XN7
• X0

Kacee

It's a risky strategy. Technically, SDC is not allowed due to the NH segment, though you may be able to do it if it's booked as a UA codeshare. If you are able to SDC, the odds of open R on LAX-SIN are not great. And waitlisting is not allowed within T-24. Additionally, the odds are that if you can SDC, you're going to be riding in Y IAD-LAX, which is approximately the same length flight as NRT-SIN.

Are you cleared on IAD-NRT? If so, I would not even consider giving that up unless I was able to confirm into R on LAX-SIN.