Last edit by: WineCountryUA
This is an archive thread, the active thread is
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Related thread - Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Related thread - Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
#1846
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: DTW/MBS
Programs: UA 1K, HHonors Diamond, Hyatt Globalist, Formerly Starbucks Gold
Posts: 3,525
UA37 friday night. Now Y2M1, everything else zereoed out. I'm on miles plus copay upgrade waitlist as 1k. Is there any chance UA has artificially zeroed out the flight (maybe the flight is close to being oversold?)
#1847
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: LBB
Programs: UA 1K 1MM ★G | Marriott LTT | Hilton ♦ | Hertz PC | Global Entry TSA Pre ✓
Posts: 2,820
Hope all is well on your end.
#1848
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Honolulu Harbor
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 15,014
One little trick I employ on my phone is to change the date on my phone clock.... set your phone's date to Wednesday, and then you can see the status of your Friday flight on the app. You will then see if they have blocked seats, which will indicate an almost certain oversale of Y.
Hope all is well on your end.
Hope all is well on your end.
#1849
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: California
Programs: UA GS MM SPG Platinum (Lifetime Platinum)
Posts: 428
LAX-HNL upgrades success
HI is back in my territory after two years off. New policy is coach domestically. From 2008-2014 this route was close to 100% upgrade success, does that still seem to be the case?
i haven’t had a GPU/RPU clear in two years and would use these solely on this route on 2018. Any thought on whether the upgrade chances are still good?
i haven’t had a GPU/RPU clear in two years and would use these solely on this route on 2018. Any thought on whether the upgrade chances are still good?
#1850
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 11,458
HI is back in my territory after two years off. New policy is coach domestically. From 2008-2014 this route was close to 100% upgrade success, does that still seem to be the case?
i haven’t had a GPU/RPU clear in two years and would use these solely on this route on 2018. Any thought on whether the upgrade chances are still good?
i haven’t had a GPU/RPU clear in two years and would use these solely on this route on 2018. Any thought on whether the upgrade chances are still good?
#1851
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Honolulu, Hawaiʻi [+MKK4 EBBER R577 EDSEL R577 ELKEY EXERT]
Posts: 15,826
HI is back in my territory after two years off. New policy is coach domestically. From 2008-2014 this route was close to 100% upgrade success, does that still seem to be the case?
i haven’t had a GPU/RPU clear in two years and would use these solely on this route on 2018. Any thought on whether the upgrade chances are still good?
i haven’t had a GPU/RPU clear in two years and would use these solely on this route on 2018. Any thought on whether the upgrade chances are still good?
#1852
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: California
Programs: UA GS MM SPG Platinum (Lifetime Platinum)
Posts: 428
I'm doing these flights every other week. As a 1K, it's a grind. CPU/RPU clearance chances will largely depend on what days and times you travel. The culprits are reduction in flights (only 3 in the tourist off season), reduced F cabins, and more buy ups about ~$300-400. It certainly is not the shoe in that it was 5 or even 2 years ago. Good luck.
There used to be 767s even in the off season but last time I went on vacation it was mostly 757 and 737-800s.
I’m pretty flexible and was planning on doing a Tues with Thurs Red Eye to improve my chances. That is assuming they still have Red Eyes...
#1853
Join Date: May 2016
Location: SFO
Programs: UA 1k
Posts: 312
On this morning's there were 2 that cleared and I was #2 after that. It had 7/28 open when checkin started at T-24hrs and then a bunch of buy-ups must have happened or people switching onto this flight.
What I was surprised about is that I didn't get offered any buy-ups on the day on any of these flights, perhaps the economy fare was too low?
Also, the breakfast on the cross continental comfort in E+ was pretty nasty... I thought the food would be more like on the international economy flights, this was definitely below that in quality. Could have been a one-off though.
#1854
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Honolulu Harbor
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 15,014
HI is back in my territory after two years off. New policy is coach domestically. From 2008-2014 this route was close to 100% upgrade success, does that still seem to be the case?
i haven’t had a GPU/RPU clear in two years and would use these solely on this route on 2018. Any thought on whether the upgrade chances are still good?
i haven’t had a GPU/RPU clear in two years and would use these solely on this route on 2018. Any thought on whether the upgrade chances are still good?
#1855
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Honolulu, Hawaiʻi [+MKK4 EBBER R577 EDSEL R577 ELKEY EXERT]
Posts: 15,826
Never seen a day when UA operates LAX-HNL-LAX with just 2 F 738s? The 777 operates daily, so at least there are some lie flats in the mix. That 777 redeye is a tough one generally speaking though.
#1856
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: LBB
Programs: UA 1K 1MM ★G | Marriott LTT | Hilton ♦ | Hertz PC | Global Entry TSA Pre ✓
Posts: 2,820
The B772 V3/4 has 12:1 Y:J ratio... probably the hardest upgrade to score (I know the A319 is 15:1, and that one is tough too). The determining factor that makes this one the toughest is the lie-flat seats. I'm on DEN-SFO tonight on UA257 on the B772 V3/4, and ended up paying up about a week ago for an extra $100. Had I waited, my CPU/RPU/GPU would never have cleared, as Y/F are full/full at this moment.
#1857
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 573
Rate my chances. Hot or cold
I'm 1K
EWR-IAH : F7 A6 JN7 C7 D6 Z3 ZN3 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X0
Waitlisted on GS GPU / Flight in 7 days / 757-200 / Q fare
IAH-EWR: F9 A6 JN9 C8 D6 Z4 ZN4 P2 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X0
Waitlisted on GS RPU / Flight in 8 days / 757-200 / T fare
LAS-EWR: F9 A9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN8 Q9 V9 W9 S8 T5 L2 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0
3xPax Waitlisted on 3X1K RPU / 7.30am flight day after thanksgiving / 737-800 / L fare
I'm 1K
EWR-IAH : F7 A6 JN7 C7 D6 Z3 ZN3 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X0
Waitlisted on GS GPU / Flight in 7 days / 757-200 / Q fare
IAH-EWR: F9 A6 JN9 C8 D6 Z4 ZN4 P2 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X0
Waitlisted on GS RPU / Flight in 8 days / 757-200 / T fare
LAS-EWR: F9 A9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN8 Q9 V9 W9 S8 T5 L2 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0
3xPax Waitlisted on 3X1K RPU / 7.30am flight day after thanksgiving / 737-800 / L fare
IAH-EWR #2 on list no one cleared
LAS-EWR cleared 2 weeks before flight
Also cleared EWR-SLC X3 at booking on RPUs a few months back.
#1858
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: LBB
Programs: UA 1K 1MM ★G | Marriott LTT | Hilton ♦ | Hertz PC | Global Entry TSA Pre ✓
Posts: 2,820
EWR-IAH cleared
IAH-EWR #2 on list no one cleared
LAS-EWR cleared 2 weeks before flight
Also cleared EWR-SLC X3 at booking on RPUs a few months back.
IAH-EWR #2 on list no one cleared
LAS-EWR cleared 2 weeks before flight
Also cleared EWR-SLC X3 at booking on RPUs a few months back.
#1859
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 573
I'm very happy. especially the upgraded trips where I am with my family.
Off topic.
Was chatting to family member who gets 1k most years by flying 4 trips in business to asia. He chooses united just for the GPUs. Through luck he always manages to get them to clear for his family vacation. This year 5 Pax SFO- Taiwan! If the GPUs didn't clear he would fly asian airlines. United should think about this type of passenger when deciding how stingy to be with cetrificate upgrades.
#1860
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: LBB
Programs: UA 1K 1MM ★G | Marriott LTT | Hilton ♦ | Hertz PC | Global Entry TSA Pre ✓
Posts: 2,820
Off topic.
Was chatting to family member who gets 1k most years by flying 4 trips in business to asia. He chooses united just for the GPUs. Through luck he always manages to get them to clear for his family vacation. This year 5 Pax SFO- Taiwan! If the GPUs didn't clear he would fly asian airlines. United should think about this type of passenger when deciding how stingy to be with cetrificate upgrades.
Was chatting to family member who gets 1k most years by flying 4 trips in business to asia. He chooses united just for the GPUs. Through luck he always manages to get them to clear for his family vacation. This year 5 Pax SFO- Taiwan! If the GPUs didn't clear he would fly asian airlines. United should think about this type of passenger when deciding how stingy to be with cetrificate upgrades.
UA has also demonstrated interested in generating additional revenue by creating its rewards program based on a revenue model vs. a miles-flown model. Requiring 1K's to spend $12,000 on base fares on 016 tickets ensured that RPU's and GPU's are only awarded to those spending more revenue on the airline instead of people (like me) who in the past achieved the status spending 30% of that amount.
UA has made the right moves, though I dislike as a HVF when a CPU is given away dirt cheap to someone who paid 1/2 as much even after paying the OLCI upcharge to F. The tactics are likely increasing their revenues on unsold J and F seats, but I would argue that the tactics are on the borderline of driving away HVF's.
Back to your comment, I would argue that GPUs are becoming tougher and tougher to use, and that if you are choosing UA just to receive these upgrade certificates, I would look at other options, as the future will likely prove that they are tougher and tougher to use. If those 4 itineraries per year are booked in J, I would say that you are more likely a case of an extremely HVF and UA is at risk of losing your business if those GPU's are too difficult to use. This goes back to that "borderline" that I described above where UA is risking driving loyal customers that are valuable to the airline away. Even if those itineraries were booked in Y, they amount to $12,000+... by UA's new model, you are a HVF, as you are considered per their terms deserving of their top status given the total miles flown are 100,000+. In either situation, if UA makes the upgrade certificates too difficult to use, this will drive HVF business away from the airline.
In the end, this is a tricky business, and it appears that UA is hedging more towards the side that the extra revenue is worth losing some HVF's to other airlines. If I was not bound to a UA hub, I would certainly split my business across 2 airlines.... and I would do it quickly, as DL has been a great experience this year across several itineraries I have flown with them.