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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight [2017]

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight [2017]

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Old Apr 20, 18, 4:27 am   -   Wikipost
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Old Nov 22, 17, 10:58 am
  #1126  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: SFO
Programs: FB Plat, AS MVP75K, OZ *G, Marriott/SPG Plat
Posts: 238
I just used a GPU on a friend SFO-HND. R9 and the biz cabin is pretty empty!! He's flying on Thanksgiving but it's pretty crazy to see on that route.
Rowyourboat is offline  
Old Nov 22, 17, 12:07 pm
  #1127  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Programs: UA 1K; *G, AA Plat
Posts: 1,588
Originally Posted by Rowyourboat View Post
I just used a GPU on a friend SFO-HND. R9 and the biz cabin is pretty empty!! He's flying on Thanksgiving but it's pretty crazy to see on that route.
International routes from the US are very empty on Thanksgiving day when domestic routes are overbooked like crazy. International travel is typically empty and stress-free during this time period. Remind him to get the gel pillow / bedding and to enjoy!
laxmillenial is offline  
Old Nov 22, 17, 8:38 pm
  #1128  
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Programs: UA 1K, AA Gold, Marriott/SPG Plat, Hyatt Explorist
Posts: 702
Flying Sat 11/25 on UA451 ORD-LAS. Iím a 1K on an L fare. Usually donít wind up with fare classes this low and Iím used to being CPUd in flights that arenít hub-hub. What are my odds here? Current inventory is F3A3JN3C3D3Z2ZN2P2PN0R0RN0IN0. Seems very low to me like maybe even if I burn an RPU it wonít clear.
getagb is offline  
Old Nov 22, 17, 8:39 pm
  #1129  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: ORD
Programs: UA 1K, HH Diamond, National Car EE
Posts: 3
ORD-FRA next Saturday (W fare). A colleague of mine was kind enough to throw a GPU towards this (I'm only Platinum). Outgoing flight looks like this:
  • J9
  • JN9
  • C0
  • D0
  • Z0
  • ZN0
  • P0
  • PN0
  • R0
  • RN0
  • IN0
  • I0
Any chance whatsoever?

The return flight FRA-ORD about 2.5 weeks from now looks a little better:
  • J9
  • JN9
  • C9
  • D9
  • Z9
  • ZN9
  • P9
  • PN0
  • R0
  • RN0
  • IN0
  • I0
I think for the return flight it might clear. But of course I would prefer to be upgraded on the first (outgoing) flight since that is a red eye...
LordDenton is offline  
Old Nov 22, 17, 9:05 pm
  #1130  
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Programs: UA 1K, AA Gold, Marriott/SPG Plat, Hyatt Explorist
Posts: 702
Originally Posted by LordDenton View Post
ORD-FRA next Saturday (W fare).
Iíve done this exact route several times (departing on Saturday). With similar inventory about a week out, my GPUs usually clear on the outbound at T-24 as a 1K, and have never once cleared on the return flights.

Also, a standard recommendation from me: if youíll go to Germany again soon, sign up for the free EasyPass RT program in FRA or MUC airports. Makes clearing immigration a breeze and only takes 20 minutes.

Last edited by getagb; Nov 22, 17 at 10:36 pm
getagb is offline  
Old Nov 27, 17, 2:33 pm
  #1131  
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 68
Chances of clearing SYD to SFO on a Monday (Feb 19th)? I'll use a 1K's GPU but I'll be flying solo with no status:
  • J9
  • JN9
  • C9
  • D9
  • Z9
  • ZN9
  • P0
  • PN0
  • R0
  • RN0
  • IN0
  • I0
kymiller is offline  
Old Nov 27, 17, 2:45 pm
  #1132  
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: LHR/SFO
Programs: UA 1K 0.75MM
Posts: 563
Too early to say with certainty but no P is a nasty start. I found Monday impossible when looking for space this fall ex-SYD (presume because it gets business pax in just in time for the start of the workweek).
sfo789 is offline  
Old Nov 27, 17, 6:29 pm
  #1133  
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Hawaii
Programs: United 1K 2 MM
Posts: 1,048
Waitlist for UG and keep fingers crossed?

I usually NEVER buy international tickets unless I can confirm our UG with GPU at booking. This time we have to fly on fixed dates, and as I can confirm the UG from SYD to SFO, I've elected to buy the tickets and waitlist the upgrade SFO-SYD. Its a Thursday in September 2018, and there are only 2 seats taken in C as of to-day .Do you think this will clear? My fallback is to actually BUY up to C if it looks like it will not clear, but thinking this is about 10 months in advance it should clear? I know SFO-SYD is tough

What do you guys/gals think?

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Nov 27, 17 at 9:35 pm Reason: merged into master thread
mmack is offline  
Old Nov 27, 17, 6:45 pm
  #1134  
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: SFO
Programs: UA 1K, Marriott Platinum, Avis President's Club
Posts: 1,142
Originally Posted by mmack View Post
I usually NEVER buy international tickets unless I can confirm our UG with GPU at booking. This time we have to fly on fixed dates, and as I can confirm the UG from SYD to SFO, I've elected to buy the tickets and waitlist the upgrade SFO-SYD. Its a Thursday in September 2018, and there are only 2 seats taken in C as of to-day .Do you think this will clear? My fallback is to actually BUY up to C if it looks like it will not clear, but thinking this is about 10 months in advance it should clear? I know SFO-SYD is tough

What do you guys/gals think?
There is a thread were people discuss GPUs clearing and how far in advanced it cleared.

GPU upgrade SUCCESS 2017

There is also a separate thread where people ask the same question you have "what are my chances".

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight [2017]
JHake10 is offline  
Old Nov 27, 17, 6:47 pm
  #1135  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Programs: UA 1K; *G, AA Plat
Posts: 1,588
Originally Posted by mmack View Post
I usually NEVER buy international tickets unless I can confirm our UG with GPU at booking. This time we have to fly on fixed dates, and as I can confirm the UG from SYD to SFO, I've elected to buy the tickets and waitlist the upgrade SFO-SYD. Its a Thursday in September 2018, and there are only 2 seats taken in C as of to-day .Do you think this will clear? My fallback is to actually BUY up to C if it looks like it will not clear, but thinking this is about 10 months in advance it should clear? I know SFO-SYD is tough

What do you guys/gals think?
Do you want to sit in C for sure?
If so, I would pull the trigger for upfaring to P. Waitlist now, give it 4-5 months, but then I'd seriously starting looking at P fares and buy if the UG doesn't clear.
laxmillenial is offline  
Old Nov 27, 17, 7:07 pm
  #1136  
og
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: SYD
Programs: QF WP/LTG | UA P
Posts: 12,405
Just pay the money then only stress about getting the best seat.
kittiyut likes this.
og is offline  
Old Nov 27, 17, 7:43 pm
  #1137  
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Hawaii
Programs: United 1K 2 MM
Posts: 1,048
Talking

Originally Posted by og View Post
Just pay the money then only stress about getting the best seat.
Ha ha ha
mmack is offline  
Old Nov 27, 17, 7:47 pm
  #1138  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: SFO
Programs: UA 1K, SY, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 7,065
Originally Posted by kymiller View Post
Chances of clearing SYD to SFO on a Monday (Feb 19th)? I'll use a 1K's GPU but I'll be flying solo with no status:
Date is in shoulder season and at Z9 P0 it's very hard to tell. I'd ballpark about 30%.
findark is offline  
Old Nov 27, 17, 8:28 pm
  #1139  
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 6,219
Originally Posted by mmack View Post
I usually NEVER buy international tickets unless I can confirm our UG with GPU at booking. This time we have to fly on fixed dates, and as I can confirm the UG from SYD to SFO, I've elected to buy the tickets and waitlist the upgrade SFO-SYD. Its a Thursday in September 2018, and there are only 2 seats taken in C as of to-day .Do you think this will clear? My fallback is to actually BUY up to C if it looks like it will not clear, but thinking this is about 10 months in advance it should clear? I know SFO-SYD is tough

What do you guys/gals think?
ď10 months in advanceĒ doesnít mean much in this context. It does control your position on the waitlist, vis-a-vis passengers who are in the same fare class as you, but thatís all. Most business travel is planned within about 2 weeks of departure, with the exception of conferences and the like.

I donít know much about pricing on US-Australia, but what I would do is go ahead and keep your waitlist for now and keep an eye on both the load and the price of a P fare. You shouldnít need to pay a change fee to move to business class on the same flight (refer to GG BUYUP if the agent talks about a fee). If a fare sale comes up, go for it; otherwise, Iíd continue to wait. I believe that UA has some 150-day advance purchase P fares; 50- and 30- day fares are also common. So, those are probably your decision points; read the advance purchase rules on the current fare and youíll get an idea of when the price is likely to escalate. (Of course, they can pull a fare at any time, and they can choose to limit P inventory at their leisure ó but youíre already gambling by waitlisting an instrument... )

If youíre feeling lucky ó or if load stays low ó you can take it all the way to the gate with the hope of a buy-up offer. If you search the buy-up thread, I expect youíll be able to find some examples of what those cost (assuming your GPU doesnít look likely to clear, that is).
jsloan is offline  
Old Nov 27, 17, 9:32 pm
  #1140  
formerly FrequentFlyKid
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Programs: UA Premier 1K, Marriott Platinum, Avis Preferred, Hertz Gold Plus
Posts: 955
Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
ď10 months in advanceĒ doesnít mean much in this context. It does control your position on the waitlist, vis-a-vis passengers who are in the same fare class as you, but thatís all. Most business travel is planned within about 2 weeks of departure, with the exception of conferences and the like.

I donít know much about pricing on US-Australia, but what I would do is go ahead and keep your waitlist for now and keep an eye on both the load and the price of a P fare. You shouldnít need to pay a change fee to move to business class on the same flight (refer to GG BUYUP if the agent talks about a fee). If a fare sale comes up, go for it; otherwise, Iíd continue to wait. I believe that UA has some 150-day advance purchase P fares; 50- and 30- day fares are also common. So, those are probably your decision points; read the advance purchase rules on the current fare and youíll get an idea of when the price is likely to escalate. (Of course, they can pull a fare at any time, and they can choose to limit P inventory at their leisure ó but youíre already gambling by waitlisting an instrument... )

If youíre feeling lucky ó or if load stays low ó you can take it all the way to the gate with the hope of a buy-up offer. If you search the buy-up thread, I expect youíll be able to find some examples of what those cost (assuming your GPU doesnít look likely to clear, that is).
I think the statement you made about most business travel being planned with two weeks of departure is grossly generalized and likely not true. I don't think MOST business travel is planned within 14 days of departure. Some? Of course, most? Probably not.
In The 216 is offline  

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