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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight [2017]

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Old Nov 27, 17, 12:34 pm   -   Wikipost
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Old Nov 17, 17, 11:05 am
  #1111
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: DEN
Programs: UA 1K 0.8MM UC | *G | Marriott/SPG PP (LT PT) | Hertz PC | SBux Gold | Global Entry / TSA Pre✓
Posts: 1,900
Originally Posted by asot550 View Post
I've been watching since mid-Oct and loads just changed today to:
  • J9
  • JN9
  • C9
  • D9
  • Z9
  • ZN9
  • P9
  • PN6
  • R3
  • RN3
  • IN0
  • I0
Is this good, bad, or neutral news for clearing as a waitlisted I for 2 pax?
I would call in and see if they can push your upgrades right now.... worst thing that could happen is there are others higher on the list than you and they won't be able to clear you immediately. Every time I have been waitlisted for an upgrade and space is showing available, I have been able to call in and clear..... as GS and as 1K.

Oops... misread the original post... waiting on I .... nonetheless... call in and see if you can get lucky with a phone agent. I'm a bit surprised to see R availability and not I....
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Old Nov 17, 17, 12:04 pm
  #1112
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 2,862
Originally Posted by jjmoore View Post
Oops... misread the original post... waiting on I .... nonetheless... call in and see if you can get lucky with a phone agent. I'm a bit surprised to see R availability and not I....
IME, at least half of the time that I see R > 0, I is still 0. UA prefers selling an upgraded Y seat to a saver business award.

OP: It's a good sign, as you know there can no longer be any small groups of people waiting for upgraded seats* -- plus, UA doesn't think they can sell all of the seats they have available. However, open R space can be a magnet for people looking for confirmed upgrades...

* Any group of size 3 or fewer will have cleared already, and since upgrades will clear before I space will open, that means there are potentially fewer people in line waiting for the same inventory that you are.
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Old Nov 17, 17, 12:07 pm
  #1113
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Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: SFO
Programs: UA 1K 1MM; DL Plat; Marriott Plat; Hilton Diamond; Hyatt Refugeeist
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Originally Posted by jjmoore View Post
nonetheless... call in and see if you can get lucky with a phone agent.
That might work for GS, but it is a waste of time - the passenger's and the agent's - for anyone else.
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Old Nov 20, 17, 8:52 am
  #1114
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 10
Originally Posted by asot550 View Post
I've been watching since mid-Oct and loads just changed today to:
  • J9
  • JN9
  • C9
  • D9
  • Z9
  • ZN9
  • P9
  • PN6
  • R3
  • RN3
  • IN0
  • I0
Is this good, bad, or neutral news for clearing as a waitlisted I for 2 pax?

For anyone tracking this one, both passengers cleared yesterday into I. Here are the current loads for the flight after our clear:
  • J9
  • JN9
  • C9
  • D9
  • Z9
  • ZN9
  • P9
  • PN7
  • R7
  • RN7
  • IN1
  • I1
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Old Nov 20, 17, 9:28 am
  #1115
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Programs: AA EXP, UA 1K
Posts: 112
On an AA EXP to UA 1k status match - relatively new to UA- and considering an EWR > SIN 11/29 - 12/4 (some flex on dates). It's $438 for the discounted fare class, or $1500 for W, and the chance for an upgrade with a friends GPUs. Can anyone provide insight into the chance of these legs clearing? I know it's a new route, perhaps that impacts how they load fares into the system.

LAX > SIN
  • J9
  • JN9
  • C9
  • D9
  • Z9
  • ZN9
  • P6
  • PN0
  • R0
  • RN0
  • IN0
  • I0

Last edited by DNPierson1; Nov 20, 17 at 9:40 am
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Old Nov 20, 17, 9:09 pm
  #1116
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: DEN
Programs: UA 1K 0.8MM UC | *G | Marriott/SPG PP (LT PT) | Hertz PC | SBux Gold | Global Entry / TSA Pre✓
Posts: 1,900
Originally Posted by DNPierson1 View Post
On an AA EXP to UA 1k status match - relatively new to UA- and considering an EWR > SIN 11/29 - 12/4 (some flex on dates). It's $438 for the discounted fare class, or $1500 for W, and the chance for an upgrade with a friends GPUs. Can anyone provide insight into the chance of these legs clearing? I know it's a new route, perhaps that impacts how they load fares into the system.

LAX > SIN
  • J9
  • JN9
  • C9
  • D9
  • Z9
  • ZN9
  • P6
  • PN0
  • R0
  • RN0
  • IN0
  • I0
I would recommend doing miles + copay ... if you have the miles. At least that way, you will only pay for the upfare if the upgrade clears vs. paying up to W to roll the dice. SIN flights are very tough to clear, and have gone through the hoops on this one already.

If you have no miles, I'm not sure if the gamble is worth paying average $550 each way to upgrade to W. P6 is not a bad sign, but could be a bit deceiving too especially if there are a lot of last minute J sales.

A $438 ticket is an absolute steal, and I would be willing to sit in Y for that price.
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Old Nov 20, 17, 11:42 pm
  #1117
Formerly known as flyerdude88
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Programs: DL/UA Silver, Marriott/SPG Plat, Hilton/Hyatt Diamond
Posts: 5,374
I'm in much the same boat. Have to head to Sydney and Singapore next week for work all coach. Trying my hardest to find a way to get part of the ticket upgraded - especially since this is last minute and all the good Y seats are taken on AA/DL/UA/etc.

SIN - LAX next Friday looks attractive but it's still 10 days away and I don't want to sit on UA for 16 hours on this flight if it doesn't clear (would rather take DL via NRT and DTW/ATL/SEA). Seat map shows 22 open J but as always I know that isn't a clean representation.
  • J9
  • JN9
  • C9
  • D9
  • Z9
  • ZN9
  • P0
  • PN0
  • R0
  • RN0
  • IN0
  • I0
#s3gt_translate_tooltip_mini { display: none !important; }
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Old Nov 20, 17, 11:53 pm
  #1118
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: DEN
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Posts: 1,900
Originally Posted by Duke787 View Post
I'm in much the same boat. Have to head to Sydney and Singapore next week for work all coach. Trying my hardest to find a way to get part of the ticket upgraded - especially since this is last minute and all the good Y seats are taken on AA/DL/UA/etc.

SIN - LAX next Friday looks attractive but it's still 10 days away and I don't want to sit on UA for 16 hours on this flight if it doesn't clear (would rather take DL via NRT and DTW/ATL/SEA). Seat map shows 22 open J but as always I know that isn't a clean representation.
  • J9
  • JN9
  • C9
  • D9
  • Z9
  • ZN9
  • P0
  • PN0
  • R0
  • RN0
  • IN0
  • I0
#s3gt_translate_tooltip_mini { display: none !important; }
Just like the previous poster, I would do miles + copay if you have enough miles. As I also mentioned before, this is a tough upgrade to clear even with GS status into the PN bucket... good luck with whatever approach you take.
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Old Nov 21, 17, 12:01 am
  #1119
Formerly known as flyerdude88
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Programs: DL/UA Silver, Marriott/SPG Plat, Hilton/Hyatt Diamond
Posts: 5,374
Originally Posted by jjmoore View Post
Just like the previous poster, I would do miles + copay if you have enough miles. As I also mentioned before, this is a tough upgrade to clear even with GS status into the PN bucket... good luck with whatever approach you take.
Yeah definitely miles + copay. It's a Q fare so $350 on the copay which isn't terrible. What sucks is SIN - NRT - SFO - RDU has R space the whole way (on the UA flights) if I leave early Saturday morning but I can't book it because SIN - NRT - SFO - RDU is coming through Concur around $4.5k for a Y fare vs. SIN - LAX - SFO/IAH/ORD - RDU around $1.7 for a Y fare and so of course the $4.5k is way out of policy on the price.
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Old Nov 21, 17, 12:06 am
  #1120
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: DEN
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Posts: 1,900
Originally Posted by Duke787 View Post
Yeah definitely miles + copay. It's a Q fare so $350 on the copay which isn't terrible. What sucks is SIN - NRT - SFO - RDU has R space the whole way (on the UA flights) if I leave early Saturday morning but I can't book it because SIN - NRT - SFO - RDU is coming through Concur around $4.5k for a Y fare vs. SIN - LAX - SFO/IAH/ORD - RDU around $1.7 for a Y fare and so of course the $4.5k is way out of policy on the price.
this may be worth a call to UA to see if they can price the itinerary. This has worked for me a couple times when fares don't display on Concur properly.... the only disadvantage is that Concur will lose control of the ticket and won t be able to do nada for you if irrops happen.....
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Old Nov 21, 17, 1:13 am
  #1121
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Originally Posted by Duke787 View Post
SIN - LAX next Friday looks attractive but it's still 10 days away and I don't want to sit on UA for 16 hours on this flight if it doesn't clear (would rather take DL via NRT and DTW/ATL/SEA). Seat map shows 22 open J but as always I know that isn't a clean representation.
  • J9
  • JN9
  • C9
  • D9
  • Z9
  • ZN9
  • P0
  • PN0
  • R0
  • RN0
  • IN0
  • I0
Booked 27/48, so 21 empty. Like that number, and the Q fare should help, but PN0 means there could be a bunch of GS waitlisted. Ten days out, your odds are probably better than 50% but by no means bankable.
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Old Nov 21, 17, 7:08 am
  #1122
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Singapore based
Programs: UA GS, DL Silver (MM), Marriott Plat, SPG Plat, IHG Plat. Always somewhere, never anywhere...
Posts: 7,382
Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
Booked 27/48, so 21 empty. Like that number, and the Q fare should help, but PN0 means there could be a bunch of GS waitlisted. Ten days out, your odds are probably better than 50% but by no means bankable.
There _could_ be GS waitlisted, yes. But as I have posted several times in the GS thread, I find that UA clears GS into "PN" via a hidden bucket or availability. Several times this year I have cleared PN while on the phone with the GS agent applying the GPU when the flight was clearly PN=0 on the website.

It's possible (not saying probable or even likely) that GS has actually already cleared. We'll just never know. So maybe better to assume they haven't cleared at all which will take away some of the 21 open seats.

As for the OP, I like the availability and the option of miles + copay on a "Q" fare. Depending on day of week, I think your chances are pretty good. But you are likely going to have to sweat it out until the gate.

-RM
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Old Nov 21, 17, 9:53 am
  #1123
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Programs: AA EXP, UA 1K
Posts: 112
Originally Posted by jjmoore View Post
Just like the previous poster, I would do miles + copay if you have enough miles. As I also mentioned before, this is a tough upgrade to clear even with GS status into the PN bucket... good luck with whatever approach you take.
Oh interesting - that likely does make sense, as I have a friend who owes me 60k UA miles. Thanks for the feedback.
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Old Nov 21, 17, 9:59 am
  #1124
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Originally Posted by RobOnLI View Post
As for the OP, I like the availability and the option of miles + copay on a "Q" fare.
Only if he has no GPUs. It makes no sense to go out of pocket 30K miles and $450 on a Q fare if you have a GPU.
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Old Nov 22, 17, 10:30 am
  #1125
Formerly known as flyerdude88
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Programs: DL/UA Silver, Marriott/SPG Plat, Hilton/Hyatt Diamond
Posts: 5,374
Originally Posted by RobOnLI View Post
There _could_ be GS waitlisted, yes. But as I have posted several times in the GS thread, I find that UA clears GS into "PN" via a hidden bucket or availability. Several times this year I have cleared PN while on the phone with the GS agent applying the GPU when the flight was clearly PN=0 on the website.

It's possible (not saying probable or even likely) that GS has actually already cleared. We'll just never know. So maybe better to assume they haven't cleared at all which will take away some of the 21 open seats.

As for the OP, I like the availability and the option of miles + copay on a "Q" fare. Depending on day of week, I think your chances are pretty good. But you are likely going to have to sweat it out until the gate.

-RM
Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
Only if he has no GPUs. It makes no sense to go out of pocket 30K miles and $450 on a Q fare if you have a GPU.
No GPU unfortunately. Flight is on a Friday and there was a relatively big movement down in J space overnight so I'm backing off a bit. Haven't pulled the trigger on anything yet and evaluating my options (which aren't great across the board on UA/AA/DL given the last minute booking)
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