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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight [2017]

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Old Nov 6, 17, 9:43 am
  #1081
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
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UA37 friday night. Now Y2M1, everything else zereoed out. I'm on miles plus copay upgrade waitlist as 1k. Is there any chance UA has artificially zeroed out the flight (maybe the flight is close to being oversold?)
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Old Nov 6, 17, 10:19 am
  #1082
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
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Originally Posted by BThumme View Post
UA37 friday night. Now Y2M1, everything else zereoed out. I'm on miles plus copay upgrade waitlist as 1k. Is there any chance UA has artificially zeroed out the flight (maybe the flight is close to being oversold?)
One little trick I employ on my phone is to change the date on my phone clock.... set your phone's date to Wednesday, and then you can see the status of your Friday flight on the app. You will then see if they have blocked seats, which will indicate an almost certain oversale of Y.

Hope all is well on your end.
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Old Nov 6, 17, 12:45 pm
  #1083
 
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Originally Posted by jjmoore View Post
One little trick I employ on my phone is to change the date on my phone clock.... set your phone's date to Wednesday, and then you can see the status of your Friday flight on the app. You will then see if they have blocked seats, which will indicate an almost certain oversale of Y.

Hope all is well on your end.
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Old Nov 11, 17, 2:10 pm
  #1084
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
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Programs: UA 1K (.84M), SPG Platinumn (Lifetime Gold 500+ nights)
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LAX-HNL upgrades success

HI is back in my territory after two years off. New policy is coach domestically. From 2008-2014 this route was close to 100% upgrade success, does that still seem to be the case?

i havenít had a GPU/RPU clear in two years and would use these solely on this route on 2018. Any thought on whether the upgrade chances are still good?
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Old Nov 11, 17, 3:11 pm
  #1085
 
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Originally Posted by CashN View Post
HI is back in my territory after two years off. New policy is coach domestically. From 2008-2014 this route was close to 100% upgrade success, does that still seem to be the case?

i havenít had a GPU/RPU clear in two years and would use these solely on this route on 2018. Any thought on whether the upgrade chances are still good?
Nope! Not even with RPU. Good luck.
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Old Nov 11, 17, 3:17 pm
  #1086
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Originally Posted by CashN View Post
HI is back in my territory after two years off. New policy is coach domestically. From 2008-2014 this route was close to 100% upgrade success, does that still seem to be the case?

i haven’t had a GPU/RPU clear in two years and would use these solely on this route on 2018. Any thought on whether the upgrade chances are still good?
I'm doing these flights every other week. As a 1K, it's a grind. CPU/RPU clearance chances will largely depend on what days and times you travel. The culprits are reduction in flights (only 3 in the tourist off season), reduced F cabins, and more buy ups about ~$300-400. It certainly is not the shoe in that it was 5 or even 2 years ago. Good luck.
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Old Nov 12, 17, 10:07 am
  #1087
 
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Originally Posted by slippahs View Post
I'm doing these flights every other week. As a 1K, it's a grind. CPU/RPU clearance chances will largely depend on what days and times you travel. The culprits are reduction in flights (only 3 in the tourist off season), reduced F cabins, and more buy ups about ~$300-400. It certainly is not the shoe in that it was 5 or even 2 years ago. Good luck.
Ughhh! Bad news.

There used to be 767s even in the off season but last time I went on vacation it was mostly 757 and 737-800s.

Iím pretty flexible and was planning on doing a Tues with Thurs Red Eye to improve my chances. That is assuming they still have Red Eyes...
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Old Nov 12, 17, 9:50 pm
  #1088
 
Join Date: May 2016
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Originally Posted by findark View Post
Unfortunately, I think number 2 is the only one with even a prayer. The first is a peak time flight, J8 with 1.5 business weeks left to book. The third might have some chance, but down to J8 already on a 28J plane is a horrible signal.
So quick update, none of the three flights cleared. I am now 0/5 in a row on the last 5 times i tried using an RPU...

On this morning's there were 2 that cleared and I was #2 after that. It had 7/28 open when checkin started at T-24hrs and then a bunch of buy-ups must have happened or people switching onto this flight.

What I was surprised about is that I didn't get offered any buy-ups on the day on any of these flights, perhaps the economy fare was too low?

Also, the breakfast on the cross continental comfort in E+ was pretty nasty... I thought the food would be more like on the international economy flights, this was definitely below that in quality. Could have been a one-off though.
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Old Nov 12, 17, 9:59 pm
  #1089
 
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Originally Posted by CashN View Post
HI is back in my territory after two years off. New policy is coach domestically. From 2008-2014 this route was close to 100% upgrade success, does that still seem to be the case?

i havenít had a GPU/RPU clear in two years and would use these solely on this route on 2018. Any thought on whether the upgrade chances are still good?
CPUs have plummeted for the reasons slippahs mentions (even just 2 16-F 738s on some days). Iíve found myself in coach a couple of times mid-week, even applying RPUs.
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Old Nov 12, 17, 11:23 pm
  #1090
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Originally Posted by IAH-OIL-TRASH View Post
CPUs have plummeted for the reasons slippahs mentions (even just 2 16-F 738s on some days). Iíve found myself in coach a couple of times mid-week, even applying RPUs.
Never seen a day when UA operates LAX-HNL-LAX with just 2 F 738s? The 777 operates daily, so at least there are some lie flats in the mix. That 777 redeye is a tough one generally speaking though.
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Old Nov 13, 17, 9:26 am
  #1091
 
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Originally Posted by slippahs View Post
Never seen a day when UA operates LAX-HNL-LAX with just 2 F 738s? The 777 operates daily, so at least there are some lie flats in the mix. That 777 redeye is a tough one generally speaking though.
The B772 V3/4 has 12:1 Y:J ratio... probably the hardest upgrade to score (I know the A319 is 15:1, and that one is tough too). The determining factor that makes this one the toughest is the lie-flat seats. I'm on DEN-SFO tonight on UA257 on the B772 V3/4, and ended up paying up about a week ago for an extra $100. Had I waited, my CPU/RPU/GPU would never have cleared, as Y/F are full/full at this moment.
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Old Nov 13, 17, 9:51 am
  #1092
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
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Originally Posted by EWRMAN View Post
Rate my chances. Hot or cold

I'm 1K

EWR-IAH : F7 A6 JN7 C7 D6 Z3 ZN3 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X0

Waitlisted on GS GPU / Flight in 7 days / 757-200 / Q fare

IAH-EWR: F9 A6 JN9 C8 D6 Z4 ZN4 P2 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X0

Waitlisted on GS RPU / Flight in 8 days / 757-200 / T fare


LAS-EWR: F9 A9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN8 Q9 V9 W9 S8 T5 L2 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

3xPax Waitlisted on 3X1K RPU / 7.30am flight day after thanksgiving / 737-800 / L fare
EWR-IAH cleared
IAH-EWR #2 on list no one cleared
LAS-EWR cleared 2 weeks before flight

Also cleared EWR-SLC X3 at booking on RPUs a few months back.
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Old Nov 13, 17, 10:24 am
  #1093
 
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Originally Posted by EWRMAN View Post
EWR-IAH cleared
IAH-EWR #2 on list no one cleared
LAS-EWR cleared 2 weeks before flight

Also cleared EWR-SLC X3 at booking on RPUs a few months back.
I would consider that pretty successful. I am a bit surprised that the first itinerary cleared, especially way ahead of time. Nice job..... and, of course, congrats on some strokes of good luck too
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Old Nov 13, 17, 10:37 am
  #1094
 
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Originally Posted by jjmoore View Post
I would consider that pretty successful. I am a bit surprised that the first itinerary cleared, especially way ahead of time. Nice job..... and, of course, congrats on some strokes of good luck too


I'm very happy. especially the upgraded trips where I am with my family.

Off topic.

Was chatting to family member who gets 1k most years by flying 4 trips in business to asia. He chooses united just for the GPUs. Through luck he always manages to get them to clear for his family vacation. This year 5 Pax SFO- Taiwan! If the GPUs didn't clear he would fly asian airlines. United should think about this type of passenger when deciding how stingy to be with cetrificate upgrades.
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Old Nov 13, 17, 11:02 am
  #1095
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
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Originally Posted by EWRMAN View Post
Off topic.

Was chatting to family member who gets 1k most years by flying 4 trips in business to asia. He chooses united just for the GPUs. Through luck he always manages to get them to clear for his family vacation. This year 5 Pax SFO- Taiwan! If the GPUs didn't clear he would fly asian airlines. United should think about this type of passenger when deciding how stingy to be with cetrificate upgrades.
As I have mentioned before (based on my own experiences / successes / failures being CPUed and applying instruments), it has become much more difficult to upgrade in general. UA has shown that they are more interested in generating additional revenue by selling F seats at OLCI for discounts before upgrading loyalists and HVF's. They have also changed the price point for seats in J and F to make them more attractive to business and leisure travelers alike (pricing a seat in F at a $0.10/mile premium is often attractive when it only increases the price of the overall ticket by 20-35% - which is when I almost always bite on it). This has not been the case in the past when J/F was priced significantly higher, requiring me to pay 100% more for a ticket for the premium cabin in many cases.

UA has also demonstrated interested in generating additional revenue by creating its rewards program based on a revenue model vs. a miles-flown model. Requiring 1K's to spend $12,000 on base fares on 016 tickets ensured that RPU's and GPU's are only awarded to those spending more revenue on the airline instead of people (like me) who in the past achieved the status spending 30% of that amount.

UA has made the right moves, though I dislike as a HVF when a CPU is given away dirt cheap to someone who paid 1/2 as much even after paying the OLCI upcharge to F. The tactics are likely increasing their revenues on unsold J and F seats, but I would argue that the tactics are on the borderline of driving away HVF's.

Back to your comment, I would argue that GPUs are becoming tougher and tougher to use, and that if you are choosing UA just to receive these upgrade certificates, I would look at other options, as the future will likely prove that they are tougher and tougher to use. If those 4 itineraries per year are booked in J, I would say that you are more likely a case of an extremely HVF and UA is at risk of losing your business if those GPU's are too difficult to use. This goes back to that "borderline" that I described above where UA is risking driving loyal customers that are valuable to the airline away. Even if those itineraries were booked in Y, they amount to $12,000+... by UA's new model, you are a HVF, as you are considered per their terms deserving of their top status given the total miles flown are 100,000+. In either situation, if UA makes the upgrade certificates too difficult to use, this will drive HVF business away from the airline.

In the end, this is a tricky business, and it appears that UA is hedging more towards the side that the extra revenue is worth losing some HVF's to other airlines. If I was not bound to a UA hub, I would certainly split my business across 2 airlines.... and I would do it quickly, as DL has been a great experience this year across several itineraries I have flown with them.
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