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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight [2017]

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight [2017]

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Old Oct 26, 17, 7:36 am
  #1036  
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 12
Thoughts on UA134 next Monday (10/30) from EWR to ZRH for a miles + $$$ upgrade requested back in May?

No status (enough miles but not there on PQD yet for the year).

The flight home on Friday (UA135) cleared no problem, but obviously I'd prefer the upgrade on the outbound where I need to get some sleep
Cissigys is offline  
Old Oct 26, 17, 7:48 am
  #1037  
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 4,777
Originally Posted by Cissigys View Post
Thoughts on UA134 next Monday (10/30) from EWR to ZRH for a miles + $$$ upgrade requested back in May?

No status (enough miles but not there on PQD yet for the year).

The flight home on Friday (UA135) cleared no problem, but obviously I'd prefer the upgrade on the outbound where I need to get some sleep
Here's a link to the flight status page for that flight:

https://www.united.com/web/en-US/app...SO=EWR&FSD=ZRH

It's showing 33/39 booked (on the Polaris business Upgrade Standby List tab). The flight is showing J5 JN5 C5 D5 Z4 ZN4 P3 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9. I'm not sure why there seems to be one more seat available in the cabin than they have for sale (crew rest?). However, the good news is that UA is willing to offer discounted seats, suggesting that they don't expect the cabin to fill with paid passengers. The bad news is that with PN0, you could have GS passengers on the waitlist, along with passengers of any status level.

Whether there are actually 5 or 6 seats available, I'd say the chances look slim for a request without status.
jsloan is online now  
Old Oct 26, 17, 8:29 am
  #1038  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: DEN
Programs: UA 1K 0.9MM UC | *G | Marriott/SPG PP (LT PT) | Hertz PC | SBux Gold | Global Entry / TSA Pre✓
Posts: 2,176
Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
Here's a link to the flight status page for that flight:

https://www.united.com/web/en-US/app...SO=EWR&FSD=ZRH

It's showing 33/39 booked (on the Polaris business Upgrade Standby List tab). The flight is showing J5 JN5 C5 D5 Z4 ZN4 P3 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9. I'm not sure why there seems to be one more seat available in the cabin than they have for sale (crew rest?). However, the good news is that UA is willing to offer discounted seats, suggesting that they don't expect the cabin to fill with paid passengers. The bad news is that with PN0, you could have GS passengers on the waitlist, along with passengers of any status level.

Whether there are actually 5 or 6 seats available, I'd say the chances look slim for a request without status.
The crew rest seats are always blocked out so nobody can select. The 6 seats with no assignments are likely because there are confirmed tickets with no seat selections.

As for the upgrade... probably a tough one departing Monday night. With 1K or GS status... it's a more likely case. Otherwise, not likely unless there are a lot of irrops / missed connections in EWR.
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Old Oct 26, 17, 8:33 am
  #1039  
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 4,777
Originally Posted by jjmoore View Post
The crew rest seats are always blocked out so nobody can select. The 6 seats with no assignments are likely because there are confirmed tickets with no seat selections.
I wasn't counting seats on the seat map. That's the cabin status on the upgrade page -- 33 booked, 39 total, but only 5 for sale. I'd normally ascribe that to an oversale in Y, but that doesn't seem to be the case because they're still selling 9 seats in Y.
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Old Oct 26, 17, 9:10 am
  #1040  
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 549
Rate my chances. Hot or cold

I'm 1K

EWR-IAH : F7 A6 JN7 C7 D6 Z3 ZN3 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X0

Waitlisted on GS GPU / Flight in 7 days / 757-200 / Q fare

IAH-EWR: F9 A6 JN9 C8 D6 Z4 ZN4 P2 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X0

Waitlisted on GS RPU / Flight in 8 days / 757-200 / T fare


LAS-EWR: F9 A9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN8 Q9 V9 W9 S8 T5 L2 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

3xPax Waitlisted on 3X1K RPU / 7.30am flight day after thanksgiving / 737-800 / L fare
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Old Oct 26, 17, 9:36 am
  #1041  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: DEN
Programs: UA 1K 0.9MM UC | *G | Marriott/SPG PP (LT PT) | Hertz PC | SBux Gold | Global Entry / TSA Pre✓
Posts: 2,176
Originally Posted by EWRMAN View Post
Rate my chances. Hot or cold

I'm 1K

EWR-IAH : F7 A6 JN7 C7 D6 Z3 ZN3 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X0

Waitlisted on GS GPU / Flight in 7 days / 757-200 / Q fare

IAH-EWR: F9 A6 JN9 C8 D6 Z4 ZN4 P2 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X0

Waitlisted on GS RPU / Flight in 8 days / 757-200 / T fare


LAS-EWR: F9 A9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN8 Q9 V9 W9 S8 T5 L2 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

3xPax Waitlisted on 3X1K RPU / 7.30am flight day after thanksgiving / 737-800 / L fare
I would guess...... cold, warm, hot.

The EWR-IAH will probably be a tricky one to clear on a Thursday with 7 seats left a week out. Inventory shows no P, which indicates they are confident they will sell those seats at higher fare rates. This is hub-hub, which means the likelihood of missed connections is higher, which would be to your advantage if you originate in EWR.

The IAH-EWR is showing P availability and more seats overall. Keep checking on that one... if PN shows available, you should have already cleared, or can call in to see if the 1K guys can push it. Again... hub-hub... possible missed connections would increase your chances.

The LAS-EWR will probably be an easy one since its the day after the holiday. I would think at least a couple of you clear. Hopefully as the time comes closer and the likelihood that those seats won't sell is higher... R space opens up and you clear well ahead of time.
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Old Oct 26, 17, 12:17 pm
  #1042  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: SFO
Programs: UA 1K, SY, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 6,370
Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
I wasn't counting seats on the seat map. That's the cabin status on the upgrade page -- 33 booked, 39 total, but only 5 for sale. I'd normally ascribe that to an oversale in Y, but that doesn't seem to be the case because they're still selling 9 seats in Y.
IIRC the desktop version hides the blocked count, so I think (+1 blocked) for crew rest is the reason.

Originally Posted by EWRMAN View Post
Rate my chances. Hot or cold

I'm 1K

EWR-IAH : F7 A6 JN7 C7 D6 Z3 ZN3 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X0

Waitlisted on GS GPU / Flight in 7 days / 757-200 / Q fare

IAH-EWR: F9 A6 JN9 C8 D6 Z4 ZN4 P2 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X0

Waitlisted on GS RPU / Flight in 8 days / 757-200 / T fare


LAS-EWR: F9 A9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN8 Q9 V9 W9 S8 T5 L2 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

3xPax Waitlisted on 3X1K RPU / 7.30am flight day after thanksgiving / 737-800 / L fare
- iffy
- decent
- decent

The first doesn't look likely to clear many upgrades, but with a GS instrument you will be near the top of the pile. Second I'd say is pretty good odds (especially for being Friday instead of Thursday), and the third should be pretty easy although 3 pax together is always a big ask.
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Old Oct 26, 17, 12:41 pm
  #1043  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: DEN
Programs: UA 1K 0.9MM UC | *G | Marriott/SPG PP (LT PT) | Hertz PC | SBux Gold | Global Entry / TSA Pre✓
Posts: 2,176
Originally Posted by EWRMAN View Post
Rate my chances. Hot or cold

I'm 1K

EWR-IAH : F7 A6 JN7 C7 D6 Z3 ZN3 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X0

Waitlisted on GS GPU / Flight in 7 days / 757-200 / Q fare

IAH-EWR: F9 A6 JN9 C8 D6 Z4 ZN4 P2 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X0

Waitlisted on GS RPU / Flight in 8 days / 757-200 / T fare


LAS-EWR: F9 A9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN8 Q9 V9 W9 S8 T5 L2 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

3xPax Waitlisted on 3X1K RPU / 7.30am flight day after thanksgiving / 737-800 / L fare
On that LAS-EWR booking.... if your booking has all 3 people on 1 record, you will need to be more diligent checking expert-mode on UA's website to see if R inventory opens up... if only 1 or 2 open up, you can call in to have your record split so that some of you can upgrade right away, and then wait out the last one or two... if only 1 or 2 open up, none of you will upgrade automatically, and the inventory will sit around, which is a risk because if seats sell, that R inventory will drop out and nobody will be upgraded. Keep an eye on that one.
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Old Oct 26, 17, 12:42 pm
  #1044  
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 549
Thanks this is a fun game.

The LAS-EWR I'm not sure if I actually want to clear because I'm travelling adult, adult, 3 year old and lap infant. might actually be easier in Y
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Old Oct 26, 17, 12:52 pm
  #1045  
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 549
Originally Posted by jjmoore View Post
On that LAS-EWR booking.... if your booking has all 3 people on 1 record, you will need to be more diligent checking expert-mode on UA's website to see if R inventory opens up... if only 1 or 2 open up, you can call in to have your record split so that some of you can upgrade right away, and then wait out the last one or two... if only 1 or 2 open up, none of you will upgrade automatically, and the inventory will sit around, which is a risk because if seats sell, that R inventory will drop out and nobody will be upgraded. Keep an eye on that one.
Thanks - I have been doing this. But thank you for the reminder.
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Old Oct 27, 17, 9:14 am
  #1046  
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 549
Overnight changes now
Flight 1
Yesterday - EWR-IAH : F7 A6 JN7 C7 D6 Z3 ZN3 P0 PN0 R0 RN0

Now: F7 A5 JN7 C6 D5 Z2 ZN2 P1 PN0 R0 RN0

Waitlisted on GS GPU / Flight in 7 days / 757-200 / Q fare

CLEARED 😎😎😎

Last edited by EWRMAN; Oct 28, 17 at 11:06 am
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Old Oct 28, 17, 12:48 pm
  #1047  
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 358
what are the chances of EWR-TLV direct flight (or v.v.) to clear a GPU as 1K?
Are there any particular days you'd book it to increase chances? i.e. Saturady? holidays?
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Old Oct 28, 17, 2:14 pm
  #1048  
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 36
Currently waitlisted for I ZQN-AKL-SFO-CLE on Jan 18. The load for the AKL-SFO flight is:

J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN3 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X9

The load for SFO-CLE is:

F9 A9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X9

Don't have any status with United, any chance of clearing into I? I'm not as worried about the SFO-CLE leg but would really like it on the AKL-SFO leg.
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Old Oct 30, 17, 4:17 pm
  #1049  
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: BOS<>NYC<>BKK
Programs: UA GS/3.7MM; AA1MM; Amtrak S+; MAR LT PLT; PC Plat; HIL DIA; HYA GLOB
Posts: 3,363
Booked UA881, a three-cabin 777 ORD-NRT Z fare eight weeks out and applied MUA at booking, when the flight was F8 A8 ON0. I figured it would clear pretty quickly as usually happens when in this situation with a GPU from D or MUA from Z. But no.

About four weeks out it was still F8 A8 ON0. I called GS, and they told me I was one of five GSs waiting for an upgrade from business to first, and to wait it out.

A few days later, I cleared, and by the time I called I could not get a window seat. I checked and found it to be at F3 A3 ON1. So apparently RM cleared all five GSs at once and made one additional upgrade seat available. *shrug*
wxguy is online now  
Old Oct 30, 17, 4:24 pm
  #1050  
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: LHR/SFO
Programs: UA 1K 0.75MM
Posts: 561
Originally Posted by asot550 View Post
The load for the AKL-SFO flight is:

J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN3 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X9

The load for SFO-CLE is:

F9 A9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 N9 XN9 X9
AKL<>SFO has historically been pretty easy to GPU. I see I(N) within T-24 quite frequently, so I'd be surprised if you don't clear that one.

CLE will be much harder. PR-1 will probably grab you the upgrade at the gate, but others have reported this route being extremely tough even for R, so i wouldn't count on it.
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