American's June 6th Program Details Spell Another Round of Cuts for MP?
 

From reading the AA forum on their 6/6 program changes, it appears many AA loyalists think that program has now gone from "first to worst", with some expressing regrets about jumping ship from MP to AA in recent years.

In a oligopolist world, I wonder if AA is trial ballooning a few new features to see if UA/Delta will match: 1) no PQD exemption for members outside the U.S.; 2) no credit card waiver for elite status; 3) upgrade priority a function of 12 month rolling spend; and 4) complementary upgrades only for higher level elites. If competitors don't follow AA, I suspect some of these "price signaling" changes will be walked back.

Now that UA has finally had some good news to report recently (new biz seats, better on time results), the Smisek era mindset of whacking elites in the wake of AA may be too tempting for Oscar to ignore. Along with rolling out basic fares (without elite benefits), I fear the next few months will spell more bad news.

I wonder if it might be the opposite actually. AA used DL and UA's changes last year as a way to poach their customers. Now that AA flyers are unhappy about the changes (myself included) it might a good time for them to get the customers that defected back. I left UA two years ago, but after having been part of the Polaris focus group, and also going to the private event last week and talking personally with Oscar, I might be convinced to come back to UA.

I got the email...from what I remember
 

AA is going to be like MP : EXP ( UA1K ) = 11 miles per $ (120% bonus) Plat 8X$...Gold 7X$...Regular 5X$ .
I did not bother to read the alliance mileage pay out.

Don't know about all the additional AA changes that are beyond UA/DLs being matched - maybe, maybe not. But in terms of the comp upgrades, AA has always only given these to their top tier, with lower status being able to buy stickers to use (maybe lower levels get a very limited amount as part of the elite package - honestly, not super familiar with the AA elite details). So I doubt competitors will match that since they haven't after all these years.

We'll see about no CC spend waiver - I hope not - this allowed me to book an end of year India trip on SQ lost year - which I probably would have booked on UA (it was the same price, on both, but wanted to try SQ TPAC and spend a few hours in SG). Not sure what I am doing for that trip this year, but want to try for a stopover somewhere in Asia, which would make it hard to book with UA as the price goes way up with an intra-Asia segment on a partner involved.

As for the outside US folks and the waiver - I still think that makes sense to have for a US-based carrier if they want to keep foreign-based folks who really can not fly UA (or other US carrier) everywhere like you can if you were US-based. After all, if you have someone who is, say, ex-EU who typically flies to places other than the US, say splits their flying with trips to the US, intra-EU and to Asia, and UA had the PQD requirements for them, there is no incentive for them to stay with UA - probably much easier to go to LH, BA, etc. where they can consolidate their flying and benefits. I bet UA would lose much of that TATL traffic, and I bet if AA requires their PQD for international folks, many of their ex-EU pax will move to BA, and from other places to a more convenient OW (or other) carrier in their region. It might make more sense to selectively choose strategic international locations to add PQD - for example, to Canada and Mexico.

Just some of my thoughts.

Perhaps this will lead to an improvement in the UA program, as both DL and AA now offer PQDs for partner travel regardless of ticket stock. So, for example, a SkyTeam partner ticket that is worth 5,000 RDMs counts as 1000 MQDs.

Well thought inquiry, IMHO.

Personally I don't regret moving, I earned 300,000 miles on AA in a one year period! I get upgrades most of the time on AA, including having my SWU's clear and I don't have to roll-the-dice with a "W" fare bucket. Overall, as an EXP I still feel valued as a customer, where as a 1K on United I felt like a swatted gnat. My only real regret was not leaving the moment UA matched DL.

As to the specific points on the new program:
1) No PDQ exception for non-US based customers: Big, stupid and short-sighted Smisek style mistake. This basically drives everyone based outside the US to another airline within the alliance (base case) or one outside the alliance (worst case).
2) No PDQ waiver for credit card spend: The jury is still out on this one. AA has said they are in negotiation with Citi on this. So we will see. Sloppy and more management of AA do make such massive changes BEFORE this was settled, probably one of many reasons Suzanne Rubin resigned last month.
3) Upgrade priority based on a rolling 12 month spend: This is more logical to me that UA's system of upgrade priority based on spend for each individual segment. Personally, it will affect my upgrades I'm sure, the previous method of time of booking worked well for me, as I'm an advance planner most of the time.
4) Comp upgrades only for top-tier elites: Isn't this what pmUA had as well? And this isn't a change at all with AA, it's been this way for a long time. Lower tiers get electronic stickers (similar to how RPU's work at UA). The only change is this applies now to the new "Platinum Pro" level, and not just EXP.

IMHO the bigger issue at AA is the redemption of miles than all the rest of this. Their website SUCKS, and hardly any partners are linked in. Booking takes forever on the phone, because clearly even internally there are not great search tools. And, availability is horrible, often requiring insane connections and routing. Without any doubt this (and also the phone App) is where United EXCELS, slightly beating DL (which is getting better all the time with website search on rewards, and the FlyDelta app), and clobbering AA.

Basic fares are coming to everyone of the big 3 US carriers. Has nothing to do with FFP particularly. In most cases they can be easily avoided (with minor financial impact), though some big company employees will get saddled with them for sure.

No, it's not quite the same as pmUA. At pmUA (for at least few years before the merger) all elites had unlimited domestic upgrades so if you were a premier and no other premier execs or 1Ks ahead of you on the plane and there are open seats you will be in F. Obviously that scenario didn't probably happen too often though.

Prior to that, and I don't remember when it changed, UA did give out 500 milers very similar to how AA did/does.

You won't have to worry about any MP changes......until the 2017 DL program is announced :D

With AA's only clear advantage over UA about to be gone, UA has an opportunity to grab AA's HVF customers including those who left UA. UA needs to focus on its strengths: 100% lie flat in international planes, network, largest global alliance, no heavy surcharges on award tickets, greater E+ inventory, etc.

I think the most interesting change at AA is prioritizing upgrades within elite levels, beginning later next year, on dollars spent in last 12 months. If implemented at UA, it would put MMers resting on their laurels at the bottom of the CPU list w/i their status group. Also tosses fare basis out the window as discriminator (If I understand AA's changes correctly).

Haven't decided if that's a good thing or not in my case if UA implements the same. I'd have to give more thought to it.

hmmm... this would seem a likely candidate for adoption :(

US used to prioritize upgrades within elite status levels by a rolling total of EQMs. Switching priority from time of booking to rolling EQDs is more about moving from the old AA way to the old US way. AA was different from UA/DL before and AA is still different. Just different in a different way.

I agree - if they adopt anything, it will be this (rolling 12 mth thingy).

It's cruel but I can't help laughing at the outcry over there since we all went through it 3 years ago. Plenty of posts about how weekly biz trips will now earn 60% less miles, with other posts saying "now my Omaha flights make a ton of miles!" etc. And for those that switched, how long did they really think it would take for this to be announced? They did well to last this far, IMO.

There are active discussions on the AA changes in:
JUST THE FACTS: EQD, status tier, upgrade changes as of 6 Jun 2016
and
REACTION, DISCUSSION: EQD, status tier, upgrade changes as of 6 Jun 2016

Discussing the pros/cons for the AA flyer is best done in those AA forum discussions. For those interested in the details, the above threads have excellent wiki summaries of the changes.

Here in the UA forum, things like "will UA follow" or "what if hoards from AA switch to UA" or ""will UA make a play for the AA flyers" or ... are legitimate UA forum topics.

WineCountryUA
UA coModerator

Timing is everything, I suppose. I was just about to inquire of a status match with AA but it hardly makes sense now that its program seems very similar to UA's. I did get a status match with Alaska but the routes are limited and sometimes results in crazy layovers like from 11 pm to 7 am. But their MP program is now at outlier with benefits better than even UA's old program.