Interesting topic as the AS/VX merger seems to be driving JetBlue to add Mint planes to its fleet and Mint destinations - LAS/SEA/SAN - to its network. JetBlue has already expanded that service in BOS transcons and with this next step it could put further pressures on UA to improve the premium product in some of those markets. Even if p.s. config aircraft don't show up a soft product improvement could be a very nice change.

Maybe less competitive from a fares perspective (and I'm not even convinced of that given minimal overlap) but it could drive competition on the product side.

n.b. The link above is to my blog or to one which I am a regular contributor. FT rules require that I disclose that in the post.

I disagree. AS offers a reliable, consistent product, and if they extend that product on the transcons to SFO and LAX, you will see people leave UA on those routes.

This.

A few years ago, I would have agreed with you. Then, I flew UA almost exclusively because of their international network. Now that I've experienced international service on BA/OS/SK/LH/KE/SQ, I realize there are options, and coupled with the devaluation of miles on all airlines, loyalty isn't what it used to be.

For the past 12 years I've flown IAD-SFO several times each year. I'll do the same this year. But if AS offers a better product, I may very well switch - especially if the alternative is one of UA's 70-odd dark 739's or Airbus with rock hard uncomfortable seats.

If AS could make an arrangement where MVPGs get lounge access on all partner international flights, just like a traditional alliance, they would have some serious competition for me to move 100% over from UA. I already credit all DL and AA flying to AS, but they did not have enough reach out of LAX for me.

The majority of people who would switch are already flying VX. Plus, that's only one route, so still minimal (if any) effect.

Alaska can probly win over the economy traveller on transcons. However they have no chance at winning the business traveller over with their current product. VX is the only carrier that does not offer flat seats on transcons.

Its all guesswork obviously.

I do think, with the additional resources, they can make a real play to cater to the tech economy, offering the best schedule between SV (SJC/SFO) and PDX/SEA, where many of the major tech companies have a presence in those multiple metro area, while also forging partnerships with a few key players to China.

There's certainly room at SJC to build a quality and dominant presence.

I really don't know what to say. VX offers 55" pitch on EVERY flight ex-SFO in F, and much, much better soft product. United offers 35" to 36" pitch, with much worse soft product. On one route (SFO-EWR) UA has better hard product, VX still dusts them in soft product. One one route (SFO-JFK) United offers zippo....

I might add that VX's prices for SFO-EWR/JFK have been HIGHER than UAs (and usually DL's) every single time I have looked.

If I were taking a red-eye, I would want the DL/AA flights, not VX, but for day time flights, the VX seat is fine, and in some aspects better.

The relevent question is not if VX can't compete with UA (it can, and is dusting them at this point) its (1) if AS keeps the better VX product, and (2) if it expands its network ex-SFO beyond what VX could do on its own.

Personally, a M&A brings out the worst of the companies.

I will never think the new AS/VX will attract more pax than now.

There are always options. But per your options, it seems that you simply switch to other *a carrier...;)

But how many are buying those versus connecting flights which are cheaper and offer lower yields? Just listing higher fares all the time doesn't mean that the airline is actually realizing greater revenue in a market.

Financially or in your personal impression of the product?

Unlikely long term IMO.
To where? And with what gate space? SFO is pretty tight these days; not a ton of capacity to expand there.

BA is *A? Who knew? ;)

Last year my flight time was spent 50/50 on *A & OW - most of it on AA/BA because they had the contract for the destinations I flew to.

My point remains - I used to fly UA 90% of the time, ignoring (when I could) my employer's preference that I fly GSA contract carriers. I don't do that any longer, because UA - and other carriers, to be sure - have gutted their loyalty programs from what they used to be, so I now have "situational" loyalty.

UA doesn't run a whole lot of flatbeds on IAD-west coast, so if and when AS increases their frequency, yes, I'll be taking a closer look. Just about anything is better than a dark 739 or Airbus with slimlines.

IMO more of an impact to Delta than to United. I guess they will completely break their partnership now, but we'll see. Since UA isn't even trying to compete on the West coast there isn't too much downside.

I see a better chance that UA will benefit from the AS/VX tie-up than hurt. It's highly likely that the superior VX onboard product will disappear, and that will benefit UA and the others on all routes, but particularly ex-SFO and the premium transcons. AS's product simply won't compete in that arena. I don't see AS winning over VX flyers either. They flew VX for the better product, not a larger network or mileage program. Also, even though AS is in a vastly better financial position, they have a major battle going on at SEA, and SFO could get lost in the distraction. AS may not be able or willing to devote so many resources to SFO like VX was. VX was willing to lose money. I don't see AS being so willing.

If anything, the VX legacy will be remembered for trying to win highly competitive markets based on onboard product. It's a fan's airline. Doesn't work in real life. Costs are king, and UA will do just fine.

ex-SFO/LAX to EWR, I agree, UA will reap a benefit from losing the competition from VX. But those are the only routes where UA will have the advantage over AS. On every other transcon route, AS will offer a better product than the dark 739s and horrid Airbus slimlines.

Keep in mind AS is ramping up its First Class.

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/alask...my-coming.html

While not quite what VX offers, it is closing the gap. And note this was announced in December- so well before the merger announcement. There is a Shareholder meeting on May 12... will be interesting to see the developments. ^

From what I've heard AS' entire fleet is dark. That pretty much matches UAs "dark" 737s (which in my book is a good thing). How does AS offer a better product here?